Analysis: Macedonia's strained alliance

By Gordana Icevska

SKOPJE, Macedonia -- The biggest victim of the fighting in Macedonia is trust among politicians and ordinary people from different ethnic backgrounds.

As the fighting continues, people are becoming increasingly nervous and beginning to lose their patience.

All Macedonian governments since the country's independence in 1990 have been multi-ethnic.

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The current government, established in 1998, was impressive because it joined the nationalist Macedonian party, the Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organisation-Democratic Party for Macedonian National Unity (VMRO-DPMNE) and the radical ethnic Albanian party, the Democratic Party of Albanians (DPA).

Both parties have moderated their policies and have compromised to find answers to the ethnic Albanian "minority question."

Officially, the multi-ethnic government is still cooperating but privately the alliance is being strained -- public statements are now beginning to reflect that.

Both sides are disagreed on the origins of the conflict and what should be done now.

Doubt and resentment is growing. Ethnic Albanians in the government are questioning to what extent force should be used against the extremists, while some ethnic Macedonian deputies have accused DPA members of having contacts with the rebels in the mountains.

The crucial factor is whether the DPA will leave the coalition.

A breakdown in the ruling coalition would seriously hamper the chances for peace, and leave few opportunities for dialogue.

For ordinary people, if the DPA leaves the government it would signal an end of political discussion and compromise. People would equate the DPA with the rebels and believe that the case should be solved by arms.

The majority of ethnic Albanians would support the rebels and the majority of ethnic Macedonians would see no option other than war.

Political consequences of the fighting

If an all-out war doesn't erupt, the fighting will have two immediate effects on the political landscape.

First, if the DPA does stay in the government it will have the opportunity to push for its demands and speed up the ongoing discussion on the role of ethnic Albanians in society.

Government officials have announced that once the fighting has stopped, the dialogue will continue.

Although slow, progress has been made: A new Albanian-language university (supported by the DPA) was established in Tetovo at the beginning of the year, the number of ethnic Albanians employed in state institutions has increased, the government is working on legislation that will give minorities more control over the municipalities where they represent a majority, and ethnic Albanians now have more opportunities to use their language in elementary, secondary, and high schools and some state universities.

Many of the issues are long-term ideas that take time to implement and both sides have become frustrated with the pace of change: ethnic Albanians seeing change as sluggish, ethnic Macedonians seeing it as too quick.

Another possible outcome of the fighting could be constitutional change.

Macedonian media widely reported that European Union security chief Javier Solana had said in Brussels that even if Macedonian officials would not admit so in public, they are prepared to change the constitution.

Ethnic Albanians in Macedonia are not satisfied with their "minority" status under the constitution and would like to see it elevated to that of a "constituent nation."

Many ethnic Macedonians fear that ethnic Albanians are pursuing a "Greater Albania" and that their demands threaten the territorial integrity of Macedonia.

Talks over Macedonia conflict
April 2, 2001
Ethnic Albanian party boycotts talks
April 2, 2001
Macedonia seeks diplomatic answer
April 1, 2001
New Macedonia border clashes
March 31, 2001
Macedonia blamed for shell attack
March 30, 2001

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