Montenegro: Referendum in doubt?

The closeness of the result in the Montenegrin election poses the question: Will the referendum promised by President Milo Djukanovic on independence from Yugoslavia still go ahead?

By Zeljko Ivanovic*

PODGORICA, Montenegro -- What distinguishes these Montenegrin elections from previous ones is the virtual absence of any interference from Serbia.

Supporters of the Liberal Union of Montenegro demand independence during at a recent rally in Podgorica

Even though the Serbian government would like to see a continued union between Serbia and Montenegro, it has repeatedly declared that it will respect any decision by the citizens of Montenegro on the status of the Yugoslav republic.

The elections may also determine Yugoslav President Vojislav Kostunica's political future.

If Montenegro embarks on an independent course, his post as president of Yugoslavia -- a union between Serbia and Montenegro -- would be made redundant.

Many analysts and politicians have speculated that Kostunica will seek to become president of an independent Serbia.

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The Yugoslav president has said that he does not think about it at all, because "the survival of the state is more important than my career."

While Kostunica is very agile when it comes to putting forward arguments in favour of the union, Serbian Prime Minister Zoran Djindjic speaks about Montenegro only when he cannot avoid it.

For him, the question of the future Montenegrin status is "an internal Montenegrin issue."

These internal differences in Belgrade are being carefully noted and exploited in Montenegro.

"In Belgrade, there is a clash between the disastrous ... Greater Serbian policy that is still strong, and the modern, European line pursued by the government of Serbia," says Montenegrin President Milo Djukanovic.

His ally Miodrag Vukovic stated that, "We are in charge in Montenegro, while Djindjic's people run Serbia. Nobody asks Kostunica for anything."

West fears domino effect

European Union countries, the United States, and Russia have all declared their support for a continued union between Serbia and Montenegro, even though many are uncomfortable with the increasingly intolerant stance of the For Yugoslavia coalition toward Montenegro's ethnic minorities.

The most interesting dynamic in the post-election period is likely to take place in relations between Podgorica and Western capitals.

The international community fears that an independent Montenegro may encourage other entities and regions in the former Yugoslavia, such as Kosovo, Republika Srpska, or the Croat-majority parts of Bosnia-Herzegovina, to seek independence.

In early April, the five-nation Contact Group for the former Yugoslavia called for a dialogue between Belgrade and Podgorica to maintain the union, and warned that the forthcoming elections must not be turned into a referendum on independence.

In a recent article for The Washington Times, pro-independence Foreign Minister Branko Lukovac charged that Montenegro's cooperative stance on many issues of regional importance and its full cooperation with the war crimes tribunal in The Hague in particular, merit greater understanding in the West of the Montenegrin government's position.

Pro-independence parties maintain that Western opposition to independence will quickly evaporate if a convincing majority votes in favor.

"The United States and the European Union will recognise us in a matter of 24 hours if a majority of our citizens decides on independence in a democratic and transparent way," said Ranko Krivokapic of the Social Democratic Party, Djukanovic's main lobbyist in Western capitals over the last few months.

*Zeljko Ivanovic is a founder and a member of the management board of the Podgorica independent daily Vijesti.

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