World awaits Montenegro vote

Pro-independence supporters at final pre-election rally in Podgorica

By CNN's Alessio Vinci

PODGORICA, Montenegro -- The election in Montenegro will be closely watched in Serbia and around the world.

Serbia's leadership said they would recognise the election results in Montenegro, even if they meant the break-up of Yugoslavia.

If Montenegro secedes there will be no more Yugoslavia and no need for a Yugoslav president. This would set in motion a series of new elections in Serbia as well, including presidential elections (not due before next year), in which Yugoslav President Vojislav Kostunica would most likely run and win.

Presidential elections in Serbia will change the way the current coalition is formed in Belgrade, and they could be followed by new parliamentary elections.

Following Montenegro's independence, Serbia's politicians would be organising political campaigns rather than working on the country's needed reforms.

The West is also concerned about what could happen next. Montenegro's secession would give Kosovo leaders a new incentive to renew their calls for independence, and pressure would also grow in Bosnia-Herzegovina where the Serbian and Croat minorities have renewed their demands for sovereignty.

The West has pledged to accept the will of the people, but favours unity between Serbia and Montenegro. After a recent meeting of the Contact Group (U.S., France, Germany, Britain, Italy and Russia) leaders issued a statement saying they "support a democratic Montenegro in a democratic Yugoslavia."

That unity should of course be worked out in negotiations in which the two States redefine their relationship and create a new loose alliance with joint foreign, monetary and defence policy. Belgrade has even proposed a new name: Union of Serbia and Montenegro.

One of the reasons why Montenegro wants to split from Yugoslavia is Belgrade's huge foreign debt, estimated at around $12 billion.

Montenegrin officials argue that because of this debt for which they cannot be held responsible, Montenegro's access into international financial institutions would be hampered.

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April 8, 2001
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April 2, 2001
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March 25, 2001

The Montenegro Assemby
Federal Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the FR of Yugoslavia

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