Montenegro: no strong mandate

Alessio Vinci

CNN's Belgrade bureau chief Alessio Vinci assesses the effect of a Djucanovic victory on the future of Montenegro:

Q. Does Djukanovic's election victory mean that a referendum on Montenegrin independence will be held in the near future?

A. If you listen to Djukanovic and his supporters, yes. However, his victory is too slim to reach the two-thirds majority in parliament that he would need to press ahead with major constitutional changes. On top of that, the anti-independence coalition scored much better than expected -- less than two percent below Djukanovic's pro-indepence coalition -- indicating that the country is evenly split between those who want independence for Montenegro and those want it to remain part of the Yugoslav Federation. That does not mean that in the days ahead Djukanovic and his allies, who still have a majority in parliament, and control the government, will not press ahead with their desire to organise a referendum. However, at this time they do not have a strong mandate to call for a referendum.

Q. Why does Montenegro want to break away from the Yugoslav Federation?

A. First of all, there is still a lot of mistrust towards Belgrade here in Montenegro. This dates back to before the era of president Slobodan Milosevic, although it has been exacerbated by the refusal of Milosevic's successor, Vojislav Kostunica, to fire Yugoslav army chief of staff Nebojsa Pavkovic. While serving as chief of staff under Milosevic, he repeatedly made inflammatory statements against Montenegro's ruling party. In addition, pro-independence politicians feel that Montenegro would have a better chance of economic recovery if it were to go it alone. As part of the Yugoslav federation it is tied to the huge $12 billion debt that Serbia owes to domestic and international creditors, a debt for which Montenegrin officials feel they are not responsible.

Q. Would Montenegrin independence lead to renewed conflict in the Balkans?

A. Analysts and observers have played down the scenario of another conflict in the event that Montenegro went ahead and declared independence. The might be problems, however, in those regions of the Balkans controlled or administered by the United Nations. In Kosovo, for instance, ethnic Albanians would almost certainly take advantage of the fact that Yugoslavia, of which they are an unwilling part, would cease to exist. In Bosnia, too, Croat and Serb minorities have not given up on their desire to break away from the Yugoslav federation. So while there is no real danger of a conflict, there would be the need for the international community to reassess its positions in Bosnia and Kosovo should Montenegro declare independence.

Q. What do the people of Serbia think about the possibility of Montenegrin independence?

A. Generally speaking the vast majority of people in Serbia want Montenegro to remain a part of the federation. The ties of language, family and religion are so deep between the two republics that for most people in Serbia it would be difficult to imagine or accept having to cross an international border to enter Montenegro. It is important to note that in Serbia today there are more people of Montenegran origin than there are Montenegrins in Montenegro itself. The Serbian prime minister has already said that the results of the election do not give Djukanovic a mandate for a referendum.

Q. Where does the international community stand on the issue of Montenegrin independence?

A. The international community and western officials have already indicated that Djukanovic should not make any unilateral moves towards independence, but rather should reopen negotiations with Belgrade on the future status of Montengro.

Q. Do the opinions of the international community carry influence in Montenegro?

A. Yes. Although he is seen as the chief player in the Montenegrin independence movement, Djukanovic understands better than anyone else here the rules of international politics. He is well aware that Montenegro today cannot afford to break away on its own. He needs the backing of the international community which has so far poured millions of dollars of aid into the country. He will weigh his options, see what the international community says.

Q. Will the closeness of the election result make it impossible for Djucanovic's coalition to govern the country effectively?

A. No. In terms of domestic policy he will be able to govern the country because most decisions in parliament are made on a simple majority, and he will hold 44 seats out of 77. What he won't be able to do is to push through major constitutional changes.

Macedonia
Yugoslavia

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