Report on vCJD in France

Age-old practices were thought to be linked to vCJD cases in Britain

PARIS, France -- France can expect up to 300 cases of new variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) in the next 60 years, according to a report published by the French Senate.

The report released on Thursday said the capacity for vCJD -- the human form of mad cow disease -- to spread in France was limited.

"The most pessimistic theoretical forecast on contamination risks in France ... shows the worst could be a risk of 300 cases (of vCJD) in the next 60 years, taking account of the incubation period.

"This would mean the annual number of cases would be five, which shows the very limited development of the new variant," it said.

Two people have already died from the fatal disease in France. It is thought another person died of the disease last month, but it has not been confirmed.

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The forecast from the French upper house is sharply lower than that offered by scientists for Britain, where more than 80 people have already died of the illness.

Epidemiological projections have put the maximum number of cases in Britain at up to 130,000.

But recent research by scientist John Collinge at the British Medical Research Council's Prion Research Unit suggested this week that there could be an epidemic evolving in waves over decades.

Although France's Senate report comes as good news to those worried about the impact of mad cow disease -- formally known as bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) -- some feel it is too optimistic.

Researcher Annick Alperovitch at the National Health and Medical Research Institute (INSERM) testified at the Senate's inquiry, calling its approach "simplistic."

Alperovitch said the report was based on the assumption of an average incubation period not exceeding 60 years. It was possible some older people -- believed to have succumbed to other illnesses -- had actually been suffering from undetected vCJD, she said.

Mad cow disease is believed to cause a brain-wasting illness in humans. It was first identified in Britain in 1986.

Scientists first identified vCJD in 1996 but opinion is still divided as to how the disease is passed to humans.