A new 'Great Game' in Afghanistan?

Pakistan is not pleased that the Northern Alliance has made military gains

By CNN Chief International Correspondent Christiane Amanpour

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan (CNN) -- Afghanistan -- rugged, treacherous and wild -- is where Great Powers fought their Great Game but never won. In 1842, only a single British soldier survived -- of 16,000 in retreat.

In 1989, the Soviets suffered such heavy losses in Afghanistan, they withdrew -- and then their empire collapsed.

"Those who have tried to put their own preferred leaders in Afghanistan paid a very high price for that blunder," says Pakistani Foreign Minister Abdul Sattar.

It's a blunder that Pakistan now says it also made when it imposed its own proxy government in Afghanistan in the 1990s -- the Taliban.

But this blunder was born in the vacuum left when the United States lost interest after Soviet forces pulled out.

To defeat them, the CIA and Saudi Arabian intelligence had poured billions of dollars in arms through Pakistan's intelligence services to the Afghan Mujaheddin and Holy Warriors who came from all over the Islamic world.

It worked, but Afghanistan was left with weapons, warlords and Islamic zealots.

So with U.S. and Saudi approval, Pakistan then installed what it hoped would be a unifying and stabilizing government -- the Taliban, from the majority Pashtun ethnic group. Instead, Afghanistan has become the epicenter of instability in the region, with Islamic insurrection and terrorism as its principal export.

Now a new Great Game may be fought over Afghanistan. The anti-Taliban Northern Alliance is making some military gains, and Pakistan does not like it -- warning the United States and others not to pour in arms again.

"We are concerned to read news that Afghan groups are asking for military assistance, the Northern Alliance has said so," said Sattar.

The Northern Alliance is a network of minority groups whose allies include Russia, Iran and Pakistan's great rival, India.

Pakistan knows the Taliban's time is all but up, but it still needs a friendly government on its border, acceptable to the large Pashtun population within Pakistan.

"What Pakistan would like to see is a non-Taliban but Pashtun-led government in Afghanistan in which the (Northern Alliance) and all other minorities get an adequate representation. Now is the time to push for a broad-based representative government," says Pakistani strategic and defence expert Rifaat Hussein.

A stable Afghanistan could also eventually be a major trading route, enabling Central Asian states on its northern border to export vast oil and gas resources via Pakistan to the world market.