Honeymoon over for Kostunica

Milosevic has gone but his legacy lingers on

By Tihomir Loza, Transitions Online

BELGRADE, Yugoslavia -- A year after the uprising that ended 13 years of rule by Slobodan Milosevic, the honeymoon between the majority of the electorate and the new coalition government is long gone.

Living standards have not improved since the storming of the parliament on October 5, 2000, and divisions within the ruling Democratic Opposition of Serbia (DOS) have brought disillusionment.

But hardly anyone denies that the "October Revolution" radically transformed the country. Milosevic's murderous regime has been replaced by a pluralistic and reasonably transparent administration. Today's Serbia does feel like a free, if not exactly bustling place.

"After a year, the general picture is peaceful and largely boring, as it had been promised," says Stojan Cerovic, a leading Serbian liberal commentator, in a reference to Yugoslav President Vojislav Kostunica's pre-election promise to create a "boring Serbia." "Certain rules have been more or less accepted and will be respected. The revolution doesn't threaten to become our habit."

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But relicts of the Milosevic era abound, both sinister and benign. Even the Serbian Interior Minister, Dusan Mihajlovic, admits the Mafia still influences much of the economy. Politically motivated murders no longer occur, but rarely a month passes without a shady businessman being gunned down in central Belgrade. Most such murders remain unresolved.

Other traces of Milosevic's regime are now meaningless, if annoying, signs of bureaucratic inertia. Foreign visitors can be pretty certain they are not being followed, nor should they worry too much about what they say on the phone. However, by law they must register their presence with police.

But policemen, once much feared, are now polite, if not always competent. The media is free, although its output is often of a depressingly low quality.

The Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY), comprising Serbia and Montenegro, has returned to most international financial institutions, including the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and the World Trade Organization. But Western diplomats in Belgrade say they often find it difficult to persuade ministers to do more to attract foreign investment. Serbia's economy remains one of the weakest in Europe.

One of the many protests that eventually led to the downfall of Milosevic

The lack of faster progress has been blamed on uncertainty over the Yugoslav federation's future. NATO evicted Serbian institutions and security forces from the majority ethnic Albanian province of Kosovo in 1999 and replaced them with a U.N. administration.

In private, DOS leaders feel relieved they do not have to administer Kosovo. But Kosovo's future remains a burden.

Since mass graves of Albanian civilians murdered by Milosevic's forces were found at several locations in Serbia proper earlier this year, hardly anyone has claimed Serbia's innocence over Kosovo.

At the same time, many feel that Serbia has also been wronged. Since June 1999, Albanian extremists have removed Serbian and other minorities from Kosovo. Unspeakable crimes have been committed. Serbs feel NATO has done little to stop them.

The extent of Serbia's frustrations over Kosovo remains unclear. But politicians who manage to articulate the nation's feelings may benefit.

Independence dilemma

Deputy Prime Minister Nebojsa Covic has become high profile as Belgrade's chief fixer in Kosovo and southern Serbia where, with close cooperation from NATO, he ended a local rebellion by Albanian extremists earlier this year. Covic is thought to have presidential ambitions.

The crisis in the troubled relationship between Montenegro and Serbia is perhaps more pressing. Montenegrin authorities have boycotted most federal institutions and pledged to hold a referendum on independence.

But polls show that the electorate is split almost exactly down the middle. Montenegrin President Milo Djukanovic will lose his credibility if he retreats on the independence issue, as the international community wants him to. Should he go ahead and narrowly win the referendum, he would have to deal with a deeply divided country.

Most DOS leaders prefer a joint state but say they will respect any democratic decision. Most Serbs feel that ties between the two republics are sufficiently strong that Montenegrin independence would change little.

Montenegro is just one issue dividing the DOS's two main blocs, one led by Kostunica, the other centred around Serbian Prime Minister Zoran Djindjic.

Kostunica will lead Serbian conservatives in future elections, while pro-reform forces will gather around Djindjic. Kostunica will rely on his enormous personal popularity gained in the last year's uprising. He has also found many supporters among former Milosevic voters.

Djindjic is behind in the ratings. To win any future election he must keep most DOS members on his side.

Meanwhile, Serbia pays only sporadic attention to the fate of Milosevic, who was handed over to the Hague-based war crimes tribunal in June.

The news on September 28 that Milosevic's indictment had been expended to include crimes committed in Croatia in 1991 was announced only in the 12th minute of the Serbian public television main evening news.