Berlusconi: A coalition to last?

Berlusconi: Flamboyant personality could be obstacle to victory

In this story: Federalism vs. national unity Racism, fascism, xenophobia Anti-European voices Berlusconi: his own worst enemy RELATED STORIES, SITES

By CNN Rome bureau

ROME, Italy (CNN) -- Media magnate Silvio Berlusconi is widely predicted to win the elections, but there is a real possibility that his centre-right alliance may be torn apart by divergent political interests.

Berlusconi already stumbled once when he became prime minister in 1994 -- but saw his government collapse after only seven months.

This time round, the media tycoon and former prime minister faces voters at the head of the right-wing House of Liberties coalition. The Casa della Liberta alliance, as it is known in Italy, brings together parties that have fundamentally divergent political views and agendas.

The strongest vote winners for Berlusconi will most likely be the once separatist now federalist Northern League of outspoken and firebrand leader Umberto Bossi, and the once fascist now nationalist National Alliance of Gianfranco Fini.

Even though both politicians claim to have distanced themselves from their past agendas, their political visions still appear virtually irreconcilable.

Federalism vs. national unity

Bossi rose to power in the early 1990’s by promising his northern Italian voters that the region would split from Rome. Fini, on the other hand, assured his supporters in southern Italy that there would be national unity.

Bossi’s Northern League says it is no longer a separatist but a federalist movement. The party name, however, has not changed: the official name is still Lega Nord per la Independenza della Padania, or Northern League for the Independence of Padania.

According to the League, Padania is the region north of northern Italy’s Po river, which runs from the west to the east coast. There is no historical basis for this region.

League leaders have said that Padania needs to break away from Rome since the government is a tax eater and a bureaucratic apparatus which steals from the rich in the north to give to the poor south.

The Northern League was part of Berlusconi’s victorious coalition in 1994 but broke the alliance amid differences over the federalism issue.

The federalism issue could haunt a Berlusconi government again.

Former Northern League interior minister Roberto Maroni told the Messagero newspaper in a recent interview that his party had allied itself to Berlusconi in order to win autonomy for northern Italy.

Racism, fascism, xenophobia

The League has not only made headlines for being critical of southern Italy but also for making xenophobic statements about immigrants.

League leader Bossi was recently quoted as saying by Italian media that a wall should be built along the Slovenian-northern Italian border in order to keep all immigrants out.

Remarks like these have raised concern among European Union leaders who in many ways regard Bossi as as inflammatory as right-wing Freedom Party leader Joerg Haider in Austria.

Belgium’s Foreign Minister Louis Michel has publicly accused Bossi of spreading racist views. However, Bossi’s coalition partner National Alliance considers some of the EU’s concern to be out of place.

"Bossi has always rejected Haider’s views, so I think it is a mistake to put them on the same level," says National Alliance parliament member Gustavo Selva.

Selva stresses that his party has moved away from its fascist past and has also abandoned the idea of a strong central government.

"We are not centralists. We have changed," says Selva. "The right has modified its position and we want federalism within the framework of a united nation."

But even though the National Alliance’s political platform may have changed, maintaining Italy’s national identity remains a key party tenet.

Anti-European voices

National Alliance leader Fini, who is a well-respected speaker and politician, is careful with his comments about the European Union.

He has repeatedly rejected criticism that his nationalistic campaigns are anti-European.

Bossi, however, has on occasion called the European Union "the western Soviet Union," and described Brussels as a "bureaucratic thief with no family values."

What may alarm EU leaders even more, is that Berlusconi has added another party to his coalition in the southern Italian region of Sicily: Pino Rauti’s extreme right-wing party Fiamma Tricolore.

Fiamma was once part of the post-World War II fascist party Movimento Sociale Italiano, or Italian Socialist Movement. This party was a direct descendant of Mussolini’s fascist party.

In the early 1990’s Fini reformed the party by renaming it National Alliance and moving it away from its racist, xenophobic and totalitarian tenets.

Those who opposed the reforms founded Fiamma Tricolore.

Analysts believe, however, that the courting of Fiamma will not create a problem for Berlusconi’s coalition since the alliance is only done at a local level.

Berlusconi: his own worst enemy

Some observers believe that Berlusconi’s biggest obstacle for victory could be his own flamboyant personality.

Even though he has toned down the tenor of his election campaign compared to previous years, he still has a tendency to react harshly to any political criticism levelled against him.

Berlusconi is often accused of having founded his Forza Italia party in order to protect his media empire.

In 1998, he was convicted and sentenced to 2 years and 5 months in prison for illegal party financing. However, he was acquitted on appeal.

Berlusconi is currently under investigation in Spain for alleged tax fraud involving his Spanish television network Tele Cinco.

Conflict of interest is the major card which the Italian left can play against Berlusconi. But during its past tenure in power, the left failed on various occasions to pass a parliamentary bill that would have limited a politician from exerting too much control over the media.

"His biggest obstacle is himself," says political analyst Larry Grey. "He for instance enjoyed being constantly on TV and he was never able to shut up."

Still, polls clearly favor Berlusconi’s coalition over the centre-left alliance headed by former mayor of Rome, Francesco Rutelli.

Partly because of Rutelli’s weakened left-wing alliance, partly because of Italians wanting change, partly because of his popular campaign strategy, Berlusconi appears to be set to become Italy’s 59th prime minister since World War II.

The question remains, however, whether he will be able to keep his coalition together and guarantee a stable government.

Death threats rock Italian campaign
April 21, 2001
Italy names election date
March 9, 2001
Insults fly as Haider leaves Rome
December 17, 2000
Haider's Vatican audience sparks uproar
December 16, 2000
Italy's Bossi lashes out at gays and foreigners
October 27, 2000

Berlusconi 2001
Rutelli 2001
Northern League
National Alliance

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