U.S.-Iraq policy may hinge on Mideast peace

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In this story: Saddam popularity rises in Arab world 'Sanctions fatigue' hits Arab world Sanctions program not without critics RELATED STORIES, SITES

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- The shape of U.S. policy toward Iraq is heavily dependent on the progress of the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, now in the hands of hawkish Israeli Prime Minister-elect Ariel Sharon.

Within hours of Sharon being declared the victor in the Israeli prime ministerial election, U.S. President George W. Bush spoke with key Arab allies, urging them to exercise restraint while Sharon gets settled in and forms a government.

The Bush administration has made a core plank of its foreign relations agenda the movement of U.S. policy toward the entire Mideast region -- namely Iraq and Iran -- rather than focusing solely on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

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But experts say that the longer the conflict continues, the harder it will be for the Bush administration to maintain support for the U.N. sanctions against Iraq.

The United States and Great Britain, permanent U.N. Security Council members, strongly support the economic sanctions imposed after Iraq's 1990 invasion of Kuwait.

Sanctions against Iraq are supposed to remain in place until Baghdad complies with demands to dismantle its weapons of mass destruction to the satisfaction of U.N. weapons inspectors.

But Russia and France, also permanent members of the Security Council, favor an easing or an abolition of sanctions.

Several 'humanitarian flights' originating from France, Russia and various Arab nations have landed in Baghdad during the past year, in breach of the sanctions.

Russia wants the sanctions lifted so it can resume lucrative oil contracts with Baghdad and have Iraq repay $8 billion it owes Moscow in Soviet-era debt.

Saddam popularity rises in Arab world

The conflict between the Israelis and Palestinians has made Saddam Hussein popular in the Arab world. Saddam has offered money to families of Palestinian victims of the conflict, and has welcomed Palestinian wounded to Baghdad for treatment.

Bush knows that forging a peace between the Israelis and Palestinians is inextricably linked to U.S. efforts to maintain sanctions against Iraq.

On Wednesday, Bush pledged the "U.S. would play the hand we've been dealt ... with one thing in mind, that we are promoting peace in the Middle East."

U.S. officials already are reviewing existing policy toward Iraq. During his confirmation hearing before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Secretary of State Colin Powell talked of "re-energizing" the sanctions against Saddam Hussein.

He said the key to tightening the sanctions would be rebuilding consensus within the Arab world.

"I think we have not clearly enough pointed out to our regional coalition partners and to the nations in the region that Iraq is threatening them with these weapons of mass destruction."

"Arab leaders are very reluctant to advocate sanctions against Saddam, which is what the Americans want, at a time when Israel is cracking down on the Palestinians and the people in the street sympathize with the Iraqis and the Palestinians," said Geoffrey Kemp, director of Mideast programs for the Nixon Center.

As proof of linkage between U.S. policies in the Gulf and the Arab-Israeli peace process, Kemp cited the events of 1991. In that year, Saddam Hussein launched a missile attack against Israel "with the sole purpose of destroying the coalition" the U.S. put together, including moderate Arab states, Kemp said.

That linkage is as strong today as it was then," Kemp said. "But there is a difference. Ten years ago, the United States had most of the Arab world on its side; today it is almost reverse.

'Sanctions fatigue' hits Arab world

The debate comes at a time when "sanctions fatigue" has hit the Arab world.

Many Arab states, such as Jordan, Morocco, Tunisia and the United Arab Emirates, have sent humanitarian flights into Iraq in the face of a U.N. travel ban which is part of the sanctions regime.

While the flights are technically in violation of the sanctions, U.S. officials have admitted the "spirit" of the sanctions has been violated rather than the substance.

Former National Security Adviser Sandy Berger said that while the relationship between turmoil in the Middle East and support for the United States for sustaining sanctions exists, Arab countries don't want Saddam Hussein to re-emerge as a threat.

One such way of ensuring Saddam remains "in his box," as U.S. officials like to say, Berger said, is making sure the money he earns from his oil remains under the supervision of the United Nations, and not spent on weapons.

"I think if the focus is now on that core function ...controlling the use of his money so that he does not use it to re-arm ... that may have a broader acceptability in the Arab world," Berger told CNN.

Sanctions program not without critics

But the sanctions program has not been without its critics, who have questioned both its effectiveness and its humanitarian impact.

In 1998, the coordinator of the U.N.'s oil-for-food program in Iraq resigned in protest against continuing sanctions.

"We are in the process of destroying an entire society," warned Irishman Denis Halliday. "It's as simple and terrifying as that. Five-thousand children are dying every month."

In testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee last September, former U.N. weapons inspector Richard Butler said, "given the last 22 months, given today's circumstances of crumbling sanctions, given the fact that he is back in the arms business, Mister Chairman, it follows as the night follows the day for me to say what I am saying: These sanctions are not working."

CNN State Department Correspondent Andrea Koppel, CNN State Department Producer Elise Labott and Reuters contributed to this report.

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