Ben Wedeman: Palestinians fear 'deep freeze'

Ben Wedeman

CNN Cairo Bureau Chief Ben Wedeman is in Gaza covering Palestinian reaction to the extraordinary election that removed Ehud Barak as Israeli prime minister and replaced him with the familiar figure of Ariel Sharon.

Q: What is the mood of the Palestinian community in the wake of Ariel Sharon's quite extraordinary victory in the prime ministerial election?

WEDEMAN: Palestininans are not surprised by Sharon's victory. They follow Israeli politics very closely. They have seen over the past several months that Barak was in trouble. At this point -- that is, after the election -- there is a lot of fear and trepidation about the future.

People here remember quite vividly Mr. Sharon's long history in this region. Sharon during the late 1960s was a military commander here in Gaza and according to reports from that time, he cracked down quite heavily on Palestinians in Gaza. Of course, he is remembered for his involvement in Lebanon. The massacres at the Sabra and Shatila Palestinian refugee camps are very well known and there is a lot of concern that now that he is about to be the prime minister of Israel that he's going to not only crack down very harshly on what people see here as Palestinian resistance activity -- but that he's also going to take a very hard line in the peace process.

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His campaign peace promises -- if you can call them that -- certainly sent a message to Palestinians that Mr. Sharon is not going to make the same sort of concessions that Mr. Barak was offering. Therefore, there is an anticipation or an expectation here in Gaza that the peace process is going to go into a deep freeze.

Q: Are there any Palestinians who see Sharon as a possible partner in the peace process -- rather than an impediment to progress?

WEDEMAN: There are those who think that he will be able to go further than Barak did because it will be very hard for the Labor Party and the left to oppose any agreement that he might be able to reach with the Palestinians.

Q: Is there a sense then -- among some Palestinian observers -- that the removal of Barak from the scene represents the loss of an opportunity for peace?

WEDEMAN: Palestinians readily admit that Barak was offering more than was offered by previous Israeli leaders, but they point out that what he put up on the table in the last year ... simply fell below the minimum requirements or demands for a peace settlement.

There was the question for instance of the right of return for Palestinian refugees -- he rejected that. There also was a rather convoluted situation with regard to Jerusalem and what the Palestinians would like to see -- and what Barak did not offer -- is the implementation of U.N. Security Council resolutions 242 and 338. These call for the complete withdrawal of all Israeli forces from the West Bank and Gaza.

Q: What then do Palestinians believe the future holds in terms of negotiations with the new prime minister of Israel and any government that may emerge over the coming weeks?

WEDEMAN: The difference between Barak and a Labor government and a Likud government is that a Labor government always faces strong opposition from Likud when it's trying to get that agreement passed by the Knesset -- because Likud is always taking a strong position on questions such as the return of land and relations or concessions to the Palestinian Authority.

Whereas if you could have a Likud government that worked out an agreement with the Palestinian Authority -- and people here don't quite see how that could happen -- then the Labor opposition would be almost automatically in favor of such an agreement. In that sense, Sharon could be the man to deliver a deal.

They point to Menachem Begin -- who was a hard-liner in every respect -- but also was able to negotiate the Camp David Accord.

Q: What other factors do you feel are in play as far as the Palestinian community is concerned?

WEDEMAN: Even though there is no election going on in the Palestinian territories, it's very important for people trying to understand this conflict that there is a very important Palestinian public opinion that sometimes is overlooked by the outside world.

The Palestinian Authority has to always keep in mind when dealing with Israel what their people are thinking. For months we have seen that there is growing impatience and anger with Israeli positions in the peace process and that therefore that partially explains why the Palestinian Authority has taken the position it has vis-a-vis the Barak government.

One must also keep in mind that this Israeli election is the result of the conflict between the Israeli, and the Palestinians -- and therefore that Israel has a very deep impact on Palestinian public opinion and vice versa.

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Knesset, The Israeli Parliament
Likud
Meretz Party
Avoda (Labour) Party
World Economic Forum
Palestinian National Authority
PLO Negotiations Affairs Department
Israel Defense Forces
Palestinian Red Crescent
Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs

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