Jerrold Kessel: Arafat's 'moment of truth'

CNN Correspondent Jerrold Kessel

(CNN) -- With the Middle East peace process in disarray, CNN Correspondent Jerrold Kessel in Israel talked with anchor Martin Savidge Sunday about the political realities confronting Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat.

SAVIDGE: Jerrold, what is your reaction to President Bush's comments?

KESSEL: I think Bush's comments were very interesting. Subtly stated and without using that cliche of moment of truth, the president laid it on Yasser Arafat that this is his moment of truth.

The Israelis, perhaps, would have liked Bush to state a little more forthrightly that the challenges for Yasser Arafat are to prove not only when he says he'll make that 100 percent effort, that he'll give the 100 percent effort and now that he will give even more, but that he will actually go out there and curb the Palestinian militants.

And this really does seem to be the moment that Yasser Arafat is facing: to prove to the United States and to the Israelis, to the world really, that he is going to face up to that moment of truth.

But I think we face the complication of time. CNN correspondent Major Garret spoke of a 48-hour period that U.S. officials see as critical. But perhaps there isn't even 48 hours, because the Israelis have been shocked.

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They have been battered by the series of suicide bombings. And there's a lot of pressure on the government of Ariel Sharon -- even when he wasn't here and was about to meet the president in Washington -- to act fiercely, to act forthrightly against Yasser Arafat, whether or not the Palestinian Authority takes action against the militants.

SAVIDGE: Bush used the term "moment" in his statement. In diplo-speak, that is always considered to be a pivotal word because it highlights an exact situation and moment. But the president has to be concerned with what the Israeli response will be. Any indication of that?

KESSEL: We've heard a lot of people in the Israeli political community, within the Sharon government and his own party, to the center-right to the far right, insisting Yasser Arafat is not a partner.

It's wishful thinking to believe he ever can become a partner. Go after the Palestinian Authority. See where the chips will fall if you go after Yasser Arafat. Don't give him that extra chance.

The question is, will Ariel Sharon go along with that idea suggested by President Bush and his envoy, retired Marine Gen. Anthony Zinni, over the last day saying this is the time for Yasser Arafat to prove himself.

Let's not forget another element in the Israeli government -- the center left, spearheaded by Foreign Minister Shimon Peres. That group would go along, to a degree, with the Palestinian line and believes this situation can't all be solved by addressing the question of the violence and the terror alone.

There has to be a political dimension. The big question, Does Ariel Sharon give that attitude a chance over the next day or so, or does he say, "No, the pressure is on Arafat. He needs to deliver on the security issue, and he needs to deliver now."

SAVIDGE: We've questioned the leadership capability of Yasser Arafat. What is the political situation that Ariel Sharon will come back to?

KESSEL: He's got a complex situation. Looking over his shoulder, he has the far right and the possibility of losing that group and perhaps the central element in his coalition.

These people have been saying, "If you don't act against Arafat now forthrightly, you can't have our support." There are people out there who say enough is enough, and enough of these promises.

There are other who say, "Try to shepherd Mr. Sharon along the political avenue." Besides the fierce demand that Yasser Arafat take strong action against the militants, they're saying we also need to try to get back to the peace talks.

Sharon could lose either flank of his government if he doesn't play it right. But on the basis of things, he has the majority of the people of Israel behind him.

He has consistently got a good deal of public support, even as the situation and security level has gone from worse to worse -- and that from a man who promised above all, who considers himself above all, Mr. Security.