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California's joyless campaign
By Mark Shields
LOS ANGELES -- Whether in providing the widest and cheapest access to public higher education, or in celebrating sushi, the skateboard and spiritualism, or in making cosmetic surgery a popular option, California has long been -- both for good and for ill -- this nation's political and cultural trend-setter. With the world's fifth (or maybe sixth) largest economy and one-fifth of the electoral votes needed to win the White House, the Golden State does matter. If this year's dispiriting California governor's race between unpopular Democratic incumbent Gray Davis and his stumbling Republican challenger Bill Simon is any preview of American politics to come, then the nation must prepare itself for some relentlessly joyless campaigns. In the judgment of Mark Di Camillo of California's Field Poll: "Voters do not like Gray Davis. But voters also do not see Bill Simon as a viable alternative." Since the summer, all major public polls have shown Democrat Davis with a lead of from 7 to 11 points. This strange race could simultaneously repeal a couple of the iron rules of American politics. First, everybody learns that an elected executive -- president, mayor or governor -- seeking re-election while burdened with a negative job-rating from his constituents who also judge the state, country or city to be "seriously off on the wrong track" instead of "headed in the right direction" will be giving a tearful concession speech after the votes are counted. But analyst Mark Baldassare reports that even though his latest Public Policy Institute of California poll shows 52 percent of likely voters rate Gray Davis's job performance negatively and only 45 percent positively, and while less than a majority believe California is headed in the right direction, voters still prefer the Democratic governor over Republican Simon by 41 percent to 31 percent. The other rule holds that in California, where registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans by 45 percent to 35 percent, a Republican to win statewide must not only carry virtually all GOP voters but also trounce the Democrat among independent voters. It had been assumed that the state's "Irreducible Republican Minimum" vote was the 38 percent total received by appointed U.S. senator John Seymour in his 1992 landslide loss to Democrat Dianne Feinstein. Simon is not only running badly behind Davis among independent voters, but he is running behind Seymour's dismal showing. Still, Republican strategist Dan Schnur, who worked for Gov. Pete Wilson and for Sen. John McCain, points out an anomaly: "For the last six months, Bill Simon has been publicly and politically running into walls, and yet he's still within striking distance of Gray Davis." That is no overstatement about the Republicans "running into walls." Simon, a rookie candidate who offered himself as a millionaire-businessman-investor, refused for months, in the face of public outrage over CEO scandals, to release his tax returns. Without apparent reflection, he erratically changed his campaign leadership and campaign themes. He has continued to emphasize Davis' already recognized defects while failing to offer a coherent, positive message to voters yearning for just a hint of uplift. California in 2002 reminds at least one observer of Arkansas in 1980, when another first-term Democratic governor, heavily-favored for re-election, was judged to be too cocky and self-absorbed by his home-state voters, who instead elected an unknown Republican named Frank White and humiliated the nation's then-youngest chief executive, Bill Clinton. Could Bill Simon be the Frank White of 2002? Aware of voter indifference, Democrats are understandably worried about voter turnout. But Democratic wiseman Bill Carrick notes that in populous Los Angeles, the controversial ballot measure that would allow the San Fernando Valley and Hollywood to secede from the city is being vehemently opposed by Los Angeles Mayor Jim Hahn, who has organized a well-financed get-out-the-vote campaign in the increasingly influential Latino community. Ironically, Davis who backed the mayor's opponent, could be the beneficiary of Hahn's anti-secession campaign. And whose endorsement did shrewd Simon seek, and publicly welcome, this week? That's right, the backing of Pete Wilson, whose 1994 anti-immigrant campaign may have secured his own re-election but cost the GOP the enmity and the enduring opposition of Latino voters. Whoever does prevail in California on Nov. 5, you can be sure that he will "win ugly."
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