Polls leave outcome clear as mud

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WASHINGTON (CNN) -- The outcome of Tuesday's midterm elections will determine the control of Congress and statehouses across the United States.

With a number of key issues at stake, Democratic pollster Anna Greenberg and Republican pollster Kellyanne Conway joined "Crossfire" hosts Paul Begala and Robert Novak to discuss what they think will be on the minds of U.S. voters as they head to the polls.

BEGALA: Charlie Cook runs the independent nonpartisan "Cook Political Report." This is what he says this week going into the election. He writes, "Bush is a weak force. Republicans do not benefit from the fact that a majority continues to approve of Bush's handling of the job of president. Far fewer than half -- 44 percent -- want to see Republicans in control of Congress. It is probably too late for Republicans to recapture those who approve of Bush but not enough to give him a Republican Congress."

Why is Bush such a weak force, Kellyanne?

CONWAY: He's not. In fact, in the "USA Today"/Gallup/CNN poll today, Paul, it was revealed that among people who think Bush is a factor in their vote tomorrow, they're two to one more likely to vote for the Republican Party because of George W. Bush.

There is absolutely no substitute for him having been on this huge campaign swing, 15 cities in the last couple of days, because when he goes in, people love the Bush brand ... Now, the generic ballot today in the "USA Today" Gallup/CNN Poll would suggest that, for the first time, we have cracked 50 percent in what seems to be a very competitive, very split country, 51 percent to 43 percent of the people indicated they would prefer the Republican in the blind generic ballot. That is proof positive that if they're worried about the economy, they think the Republicans have the solutions.

BEGALA: Let me come back to that point that you said. Of people who think Bush's participation in the campaign is relevant, two to one say they support Bush, that's right. But there is very few of them. Let me put the chart up here. The question from the CNN poll...

CONWAY: And they are going to vote tomorrow.

BEGALA: But they're 28 percent, Kellyanne. They're 28 percent, and they are all just already committed... Only 28 percent say that their vote will be to support Bush. Only 15 percent to oppose him. Fifty-three percent, the majority of Americans, the vast majority, say Bush is not a factor.

CONWAY: Could you imagine how we asked that question about Clinton being a factor? Even Erskine Bowles, his own former chief of staff, somehow deleted from his resume...

BEGALA: ... Clinton beat y'all twice. What about Bush being so weak?

NOVAK: But Clinton was killing Democratic candidates in his first midterm election when he trailed in '94, and I want to -- she talked about generic ballots. For the uninitiated, that means who do you want to control Congress. I want to put that poll up. That is the CNN "USA Today" Gallup poll -- actually, Kellyanne, it is 51-45. That is a stunning result. That's the least thing I expected to see, the generic vote in favor of the Republicans -- weren't you surprised?

GREENBERG: No, because it is not plausible. There were five polls conducted last week. Four of the five had Democrats up by three to five points. Only one, the Fox Poll, which is from a Republican network, had the Republicans up. If you look at the average, over the last month, Democrats have been up three points. It is not simply not plausible this race has turned around by nine points in two days. I don't believe it.

BEGALA: In fact -- Kellyanne let me ask -- actually, maybe both of you this -- if you go through -- the CNN Gallup poll, it shows Republicans picking up in all these key Senate races. If you go through the MSNBC Zogby poll, our competitors, it shows Democrats winning all of them. For people who have not spent their lives running campaigns like I have, how does that happen, Kellyanne?

CONWAY: It happens because polls are beholden to who is responding to them. We voters, we Americans, are very dynamic. We change our minds all the time. You change your mind as to what tie you're going to wear, what you are going to have for dinner, which way you are going to go to work. People are truly undecided, and truly wringing their hands, depending on the last minute campaign stops, depending on the mail pieces they get, the debates they see, unless, of course, they are in Minnesota, then -- it is easy for them to decide for whom to vote.

So, with few exceptions, Norm Coleman, that is -- with very few -- with very few exceptions, Paul, people who are truly fence-sitting right now will look at this last weekend's campaigning as deciding their vote, and as probably seeing in their own surveying that people become late-in-the-game deciders. People are struggling with whom to vote for late in the game.

NOVAK: And since neither you nor Paul like the poll that the Gallup organization we pay so much money for, let's switch to The New York Times/CBS poll.

They ask, "Which party has a clearer plan for the country if they gain control of Congress?"

Watch this. Republicans: yes, clear plan, 42 percent; no, 39 percent. Democrats: 31 percent yes with a clear plan; no, 49 percent.

You know, even people who are Democrats privately tell me they love the Democratic Party, but they don't have a clear plan this year. Isn't that true?

GREENBERG: I don't think that's true. You don't think I would think that was true. It has been a very difficult election for anyone to break through. There have been a series of events since late August, the commemoration of September 11, the vote on the Iraq resolution, even the sniper story have made it very difficult for anybody, Democrat or Republican, to know what this election is about. The truth is that if you look at who people think can handle the economy better, people are evenly split. If you look at who people can handle Social Security and health care, people vote for Democrats.

There are a series of issues here where people see the Democrats as better than the Republicans. They are even competitive on the economy, which historically has not been true. So this number doesn't bother me, I don't think it really has much relevance to the race.

CONWAY: The numbers tomorrow, I think, are going to bother lots of Democrats...

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