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Power shift possible in governors' races
(CNN) -- Much of the nation's attention will focus on congressional races Tuesday as the midterm election sorts out winners and losers in a struggle for control of the U.S. House and Senate. But the power play outside of Washington might be just as significant, as voters in 36 states choose governors. The odds of a significant power shift are far greater in the gubernatorial elections than in the House or Senate contests. If the Democrats seize control of a handful of states, it would be the first time since 1994 that the party has had the majority of governors. Republicans hold 27 governors' offices, including four of the nation's five largest states. There are 21 Democratic governors, and independents hold executive offices in Maine and Minnesota. A majority of those offices are on the line this year: 23 held by Republicans, 11 by Democrats. The Democrats have a decided edge among open seats. Six Democrats, 12 Republicans and both independents are retiring this year. Polls in eight states indicate the races are too close for a favorite to emerge: Alabama, Arizona, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Tennessee and Wisconsin. Most states have close races that lean toward a favorite candidate, with the Democrats poised to make gains. Only four states have races that appear safe for one candidate. For the first time in nearly a decade, governors races are dominated by widespread budget shortfalls and discouraging fiscal forecasts. Economic problems are hurting Democrats running in Iowa, California, Alabama and Maryland. Republicans are distancing themselves from money problems in Tennessee, Kansas and Michigan. Several states find their races in the national spotlight, for various reasons. Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, a Republican, is fighting off Tampa attorney Bill McBride. Bush picked up $1.5 million in fund-raising from his brother and is key to President George W. Bush's re-election plan. McBride scored a significant upset when he narrowly beat former U.S. Attorney General Janet Reno in the Democratic gubernatorial primary. In California, Gov. Gray Davis has a less-than-comfortable lead over Republican challenger Bill Simon. Although Simon has been slowed by a civil fraud lawsuit filed against his family's investment firm, Davis' support has continued to fall. A recent poll showed his lead over Simon at 7 percentage points. Democrats in Illinois are poised to break the GOP's lock on the governor's office. It could come down to confusion over names. The Republican nominee, state Attorney General Jim Ryan, is not related to unpopular Gov. George Ryan, a Republican who is not seeking re-election, but some voters think he is. The Democrats have nominated three-term Rep. Rod Blagojevich. Finally, Vermont could prove to have the most interesting outcome. Lt. Gov. Douglas Racine, a Democrat, is favored over state Treasurer Jim Douglas, a Republican, but two minor-party candidates could play spoiler roles. Former state Human Services Secretary Cornelius Hogan, an independent, and Michael Badamo, with the Progressive Party, could pick up enough votes to keep either of the others from picking up a majority of the vote. That would send the election to the state legislature, which has happened 21 times in the state's history. This year, the Senate is controlled by Republicans, and Democrats control the House.
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