Tanaka firing Koizumi's 'last card'


Koizumi has yet to say if Tanaka will stay in his government in any capacity

By Alex Frew McMillan
CNN Hong Kong

(CNN) -- The sudden and unexpected firing of Japan's Foreign Minister Makiko Tanaka has damaged the popularity of Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi.

But there's no word yet on whether Tanaka has been removed completely from the government.

Koizumi may still offer her another post, as high even as cabinet-level, in order to avoid alienating her and her fans.

She is one of the most popular and outspoken politicians in Japan. But she fell out with leading diplomats over the way Japan is handling its aid for Afghanistan.

After Tanaka was fired, stocks suffered, the yen weakened and experts say Koizumi's whole administration risks collapse.

On Friday, the Japanese leader named another woman, Environment Minister Yoriko Kawaguchi, to replace Tanaka as foreign minister. She is one of four in his cabinet.

But his first choice, Sadako Ogata, turned him down. "Work conditions make it impossible for me to accept," she said by phone from New York. She is Japan's special envoy on Afghan aid.

Koizumi's ratings hit more than 90 percent, as the maverick leader promised to bring dramatic change to the staid Japanese political scene.

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But different polls show his approval rating is now 34 percent to 55 percent, down drastically from the record levels after his election in April last year.

Ryo Hino, economist with J.P. Morgan, explained to CNN what her firing means.

CNN: How did Tanaka fall out with high-level diplomats over Afghanistan?

Hino: Muneo Suzuki [a ruling-party politician] is obviously the bad guy here. Suzuki obviously doesn't like non-governmental organizations, especially when it comes to events happening in Japan. He feels the government should handle everything. Tanaka wanted Peace Wins Japan and another NGO and to participate.

CNN: Who wins?

Hino: The public is overwhelmingly siding with Tanaka. She took up the fight against the bureaucracy single-handedly. No one else has riled up this much action against the bureaucracy.

She said these people are totally disconnected with public interest.

To get rid of her is like saying we do want reform but then again, we'd rather have the government running more smoothly. But the cost of that may be the cost of the public thinking they [politicians] would rather turn a blind eye to what's going on in the bureaucracy.

CNN: What happens to Junichiro Koizumi, the prime minister?


Kawaguchi replaced Tanaka, but Koizumi's original choice turned him down

Hino: It's the last card he has in his hand. It's a trump card for sure. It has been enough [for now]. Internal politics in the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) suggest there has been enough. But he is still standing there under the banner of a high approval rating.

But that's it. That's the last card he has in his hand. Once he's played that, everything starts to cave in. A snap poll [after the firing] showed his approval rating dropped to 55 percent.

Now obviously that was a knee-jerk reaction. We have to see what else happens. The public needs a little bit more time to digest what has happened here.

CNN: Will Tanaka come back?

Hino: It's plausible, they openly say they do talk regularly. But it's plausible to see the scenario in which Tanaka [said] 'I just can't handle it any more. I'm the only person taking these people on. Now I've got Muneo Suzuki on my back. Everyone is holding me back.'

She has bowed out gracefully. There has been absolutely no talk so far about whether she will take a place somewhere else. She has denied she will leave the LDP.

CNN: What does Koizumi do now?

Hino: Making an enemy out of her [Tanaka] would be a mistake. Obviously the big question is, did Koizumi do this to make one sacrifice now for the benefit of making a big win down the way?

If it was really a deal just to get rid of her, and she finds that out, things could take a really interesting turn of events.