World Bank warns of growth risks ahead


Air pollution wreaks a heavy cost across Asia, particularly in big cities

By Geoff Hiscock
CNN Asia Business Editor

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Asia and other parts of the world need to act now to avert a growing risk of severe environmental damage and "profound social unrest," the World Bank says in its latest development report.

A global population of nine billion, six billion of them living in cities, will put enormous demands on energy, water, housing and education by 2050, according to the report.

Release of the bank's 2003 World Development Report comes as large parts of Asia -- particularly China and India -- are battling devastating floods, and Europe is still assessing its own flood damage.(Full Story)

It also follows a warning from scientists last week about the global health threat posed by a toxic brown cloud, three kilometers deep, that stretches from Afghanistan across South Asia to Bangladesh, China and parts of Indo-China.(Full Story)

The cloud, which slashes sunlight, is thought responsible for tens of thousands of deaths from respiratory illnesses.

According to the World Bank, the world in 2050 could have a gross domestic product of $140 trillion -- four times what it is now -- and significantly reduced poverty.

Costly


China's floods this month threaten to create a disaster worse than the deadly floods of 1998

But the bank's report says there is a risk growth could come at great cost to future generations.

"Without better policies and institutions, social and environmental strains may derail development progress, leading to higher poverty levels and a decline in the quality of life for everybody," it says.

World Bank chief economist Nicholas Stern said a global GDP of $140 trillion could not be sustained on current production and consumption patterns.

"A major transformation, beginning in the rich countries, will be needed to ensure that poor people have an opportunity to participate, and that the environment is not damaged in a way that undermines their opportunities for the future," he said.

Stern said rich countries should start the process by opening their markets to developing world exports, and by abandoning agricultural subsidies and other trade barriers that limit the opportunities for the goods that poor people produce most competitively.

A long-term Asia Pacific economic outlook released earlier this month by forecaster BIS-Shrapnel said the region's two most populous countries, China and India, would lead growth over the next decade, with annual average increases of 7.0 percent and 6.5 percent respectively.(Full Story)

Fragile land use


There is increasing pressure on fragile resources, the World Bank says

According to the World Bank, the over-use of fragile land is especially critical for East and South Asia. Many of the methods that farmers use to boost agricultural production in the drylands is damaging the environment.

Population pressure on arable land in Asia, particularly on the Inner Asia drylands, is making the area particularly vulnerable, the report says.

China and Inner Asia's high steppe -- the largest remaining pastureland in the world which covers Mongolia and northwestern China -- has been the most affected so far.

The bank says the world's water use is expected to jump 50 percent over the next 30 years.

"By 2025, it is likely that three quarters of the world's population will live within 100 kilometers of the sea, placing huge strains on coastal ecosystems," it observes.

The World Bank says it wants the political, private sector and civil society representatives attending next week's World Summit on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg to agree on steps that can be taken to ensure a balanced approach to growth.