Faded optimism among tech execs
From Eileen Colkin (InformationWeek)
(TechWeb) -- Business-technology executives have toned down their optimism from earlier this year, but they're feeling better than they did a year ago, particularly about new IT projects.
The InformationWeek IT Confidence Index, a measure of attitudes based on execs' outlooks for the economy, their industries, and their companies' prospects culled from 300 phone surveys, slipped 18 percent in September compared with June. The index surged 45 percent in March as execs looked for an end-of-2002 recovery and maintained that level in June.
Compared with September 2001, this month's index is up 10 percent. Expectations about the economy, industry performance, and individual business prospects stayed about the same.
But optimism around IT project starts edged up, with 57 percent of respondents feeling positive about initiatives for the next three months, compared with 52 percent last year. There's still caution about IT spending overall: Just over one-third have a positive outlook on their companies' IT spending, 45 percent are neutral, and almost 20 percent are negative.
Another measure of the tech economy released this month also shows some optimism. Merrill Lynch's Tec Diffusion Index, a mix of nine economic indicators such as tech-capacity utilization and producer prices, rose in July to 5.0 from 4.0 in June.
More significantly, the three-month moving average, which Merrill considers a better indicator of momentum, rose in July for the first time in 22 months.
"It appears the economy is approaching the moment of truth. Will it double dip as in the early 1980s or continue to recovery as in the early 1990s?" Merrill analysts Steven Milunovich and Michael Ramirez write in their report.
Execs in InformationWeek's survey haven't made up their minds on that question: 39 percent are positive about the overall economy in the next three months, 42 percent neutral, and 19 percent negative.
