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Searching for bin Laden and Omar

CNN Pentagon Correspondent Barbara Starr

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- During Pentagon briefings on the war on terrorism, officials face a nagging question: Where is alleged terror mastermind Osama bin Laden and Taliban spiritual leader Mullah Mohammed Omar? For weeks now, Bush administration officials have said they do not know where they are and cannot even confirm bin Laden is alive. CNN Pentagon Correspondent Barbara Starr has attended many of the briefings and filed this report on the difficulties of finding the two men.

STARR: Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld gave a hint Wednesday of what he thinks, saying he believes bin Laden and Omar are inside Afghanistan but "we are looking at some other places as well from time to time."

Rumsfeld noted there are dozens of conflicting intelligence reports each day and said most of them are wrong. Most of the reports are based on sightings by local Afghans that cannot be verified.

There are reports that bin Laden and his convoys have been sighted by a Predator unmanned aerial vehicle, but some experts said there has never been the precise resolution needed for an attack that can be launched in a timely manner.

A senior Defense Department source said the lack of credible information about the two is so severe that many officials believe the United States will catch bin Laden or Omar only through pure luck, or an "intelligence break" -- essentially one of their associates turning them in.

Top CIA analysts who track bin Laden and Omar have been asked for their best assessment on the two men's whereabouts. That has led to a variety of thoughts, placing bin Laden in Afghanistan, in Pakistan or Iran, on the open ocean onboard a ship, or headed north through Tajikistan or Uzbekistan -- if he is still alive.

Before the fall of Kandahar, the United States had nearly the precise location of Omar inside the city and was watching his movements closely. When the Taliban surrendered the city, it was clear Omar got away with the help of local tribal chieftains and has remained on the run since.

As for bin Laden, the videotape seen worldwide several weeks ago of bin Laden talking about the September 11 attacks was made in Kandahar. He then apparently disappeared -- possibly going north to Tora Bora.

Head of the U.S. Central Command, Gen. Tommy Franks, said there is evidence bin Laden was in Tora Bora but he gave no indication of when that might have been. In October, intelligence officials thought they had bin Laden pinned down to a 10-square-mile area in the eastern central mountains of Afghanistan.

Two senior military officers told CNN it would not have been hard for bin Laden to change location several times because vast areas of Afghanistan are virtually unseen by the U.S. military, and he would have been even harder to spot if he moved without his telltale large security contingent.

Even before the war, bin Laden moved around frequently, making it difficult for the United States to determine his location and launch an attack against him.

In one broader indication of how tough the job is, a military official said intelligence indicates that some Afghans whom the United States considers allies are assisting Taliban and al Qaeda members to escape across the border into Pakistan.