Rumsfeld sent to head off India-Pakistan war

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- With tensions soaring between nuclear rivals India and Pakistan over the disputed territory of Kashmir, U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld hurriedly prepared a trip to the volatile region.

President Bush said Thursday that Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf "must live up to his word" to stop terror attacks in India and the India-administrated regions of Kashmir.

"We are making it very clear to both Pakistan and India that war will not serve their interests," Bush said in announcing Rumsfeld's trip to both countries next week. "And we're a part of an international coalition applying pressure to both parties, particularly to President Musharraf."

Bush said Musharraf "must stop the incursions across the Line of Control. He must do so. He said he would do so. We and others are making it clear to him that he must live up to his word," said Bush.

Bush's announcement came after Musharraf announced he was considering moving troops amassed on the country's western border with Afghanistan to its eastern borders with India. (Full story)

Musharraf said Pakistan's "first priority is its own security" and that if "we are subjected to aggression ... certainly all our resources will confront the area or the points where the security" is being threatened.

Earlier, Musharraf's spokesman told reporters the troops already were moving.

The loss of Pakistani forces to help root out Taliban and al Qaeda fighters along the Afghan-Pakistan border would be a blow to the U.S. war on terror.

U.S. officials believe al Qaeda members may be trying to foment conflict between India and Pakistan to distract the Pakistani government from pursuing the terrorist network and its allies.

India has more 'conventional' muscle

CNN NewsPass VIDEO CNN's Satinder Bindra reports that the world fears war between Pakistan and India over Kashmir, where 1 million soldiers are amassed along the Line of Control. (May 30) Play video CNN's Suhasini Haidar says a Pentagon study finds as many as 12 million people could be killed in a Pakistan-India nuclear conflict (May 30) Play video CNN's Tom Mintier reports on the Pakistan president's tough talk in the latest broadside in the war of words between his nation and India, as the dispute over Kashmir worsens. (May 30) Play video Afghanistan interim leader Hamid Karzai talks with CNN's Tom Mintier about his advice to Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf (May 30) Play video

Troops have skirmished daily across the Line of Control dividing the Indian and Pakistani-administered sections of Kashmir since an army camp in the Indian-administered part of Kashmir was attacked, with more than 30 people killed earlier this month. India blamed Pakistan.

Should a full scale war break out between India and Pakistan, it would probably begin with conventional forces such as airstrikes and ground troops, as the two countries have fought three previous times in the past 50 years.

India outranks Pakistan in every conventional force. India's army has 1.1 million soldiers to Pakistan's 600,000. India's navy and air force are also larger.

That imbalance is why Pakistan has refused to guarantee -- as India has done -- that it won't be the first to use nuclear weapons against its neighbor.

"Those who ask that we commit ourselves to non-first use of nuclear weapons, they are asking us in fact to accept the use of force by India," said Pakistan Ambassador to the United Nations, Munir Akram.

In addition to Rumsfeld, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage is going to the region next week. British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw met with Indian and Pakistani officials this week.

Nuclear strikes by India and Pakistan could kill up to 12 million people instantly and injure 7 million, according to a just-released Pentagon study.

The report also said there aren't enough hospitals in Asia to handle all those casualties. The world would have to step in to help the two countries.

Preparing troops and weapons

U.S. military officials, along with representatives of U.S. embassies in both countries, evaluated preparations for evacuating Americans from both India and Pakistan. (Full story)

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Pakistani military sources said the Pakistani air force has moved into forward positions and that troops along the border have been moved into "final positions" in preparation for any military confrontation.

U.S. officials said India has begun working to prepare for loading conventional warheads on some of its medium range missiles, which can also carry nuclear warheads, following a weekend of high-profile missile testing by Pakistan.

Brahma Chellaney, a professor of strategic studies at the Center for Policy Research in New Delhi and an informal adviser to the Indian government, said the "war clouds will begin to disperse" once Musharraf cracks down on suspected terrorists within Pakistan.

"If that does not happen, war is very likely," he said.

"Unless Pakistan cracks down on terror groups, there can be no progress in the war against terror," said Chellaney. "You can wipe out al Qaeda in Afghanistan and finish the Taliban, but as long as the terror infrastructure of Pakistan remains, you'll have jihadis -- Islamic holy warriors -- produced from the religious schools and terror training camps of the country."

He added: "We have a paradox: Pakistan is the key ally to the United States in the U.S.-led war, but Pakistan is also the problem."

Musharraf, when asked at a news conference what assurances he could give that the tensions would not escalate into a conventional or a nuclear war, said: "All I can do is to give my own assurance that we will try to avoid conflict. It will be my utmost endeavor to avoid conflict."

He said Pakistan would not initiate a conflict, but added: "I think you need to get assurances from the Indian side."

-- CNN correspondents Ash-Har Quraishi, Kasra Naji, Suhasini Haidar and David Ensor contributed to this report