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Terrorism analyst: al Qaeda's quantum leaps

Counterterrorism analyst Tony Villa

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WASHINGTON (CNN) -- An al Qaeda video obtained by CNN shows the proficiency of the terrorist network in manufacturing explosives. The video, a primer on how to make TNT from scratch, has surprised some terrorism experts, who say intelligence agencies have underestimated al Qaeda's knowledge and training effectiveness.

Tony Villa, a counterterrorism analyst who has worked for the U.S. government, discussed his reaction to this video Thursday with CNN anchor Paula Zahn.

ZAHN: I know you say that the achievements that you see on these tapes suggest that al Qaeda is on the cutting edge of terrorism. Why?

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VILLA: Well, I believe that, first off, let me say that reviewing these tapes I was shocked. I was shocked at the quantum leaps that al Qaeda has made in their explosive development program. The tapes clearly illustrate their commitment, their level of sophistication and their organizational capabilities as well. And also the segments that we're seeing is only a snapshot of what, of all the information captured on that tape.

ZAHN: We see them now working with these beakers and other lab equipment. But I heard that you learned just as much by listening to the audio on these tapes. What did you learn?

VILLA: Well, the fact that they're, they had an interest in developing explosives isn't so riveting as the type of explosives. They have effectively managed to develop explosives and blasting caps with materials that are virtually undetectable or raise [alarms] for authorities.

One of the things that concerns me, and I'm sure it concerned a number of individuals, is the fact that ... these materials are undetectable, [and it] only exacerbates the situation, opens a broad range of possibilities and a myriad of potential scenarios.

ZAHN: For those of us who have never seen this stuff manufactured on a legal basis, what's the primary difference between what we're witnessing on this tape with, you know, relatively little equipment here and what you've witnessed in controlled situations?

VILLA: In the past manufacturers have had to use special manufacturing equipment to develop these materials. For example, ovens that regulate heat and vary in times to get the optimum effect on the materials being developed. In the videos, we don't see any of that. They've taken that completely out of the equation, which again speaks volumes to their ability to maintain their anonymity and their elusiveness.

ZAHN: Now, of course, the big concern in everybody's mind is what they would do with these explosives. And an al Qaeda expert told CNN Correspondent Nic Robertson his concern is -- now that they've perfected this TNT stuff, they can use these explosives to disperse radiological material. Do you share that concern?

VILLA: Well, let me preface that by saying that to my knowledge we have not had an opportunity to replicate the material and therefore not had an opportunity to do field analysis of it. But it appears that it's effective enough to carry out a terrorist campaign and potentially that threat does exist. Again, based on the type of radioactive material used, it could potentially cause a threat.

ZAHN: I just wonder by looking at these tapes whether you can really tell just how effective one of these bombs would be?

VILLA: Looking at the tape, no. But the illustration clearly identifies the potential for a use of these materials for a terrorist campaign.

ZAHN: And how deadly would the consequences be of a bomb with this TNT in it?

VILLA: Well, that's hard to measure without doing an actual analysis of its blast effect, and I would say that TNT is a very powerful explosive, high-energy explosive with a strong resonance effect.

ZAHN: So if you were working for the government right now, and you were trying to analyze the impact of these tapes, what conclusion would you arrive at?

VILLA: It's going to require an in-depth review. It definitely raises a degree of concern, a cause for concern. And more importantly, I think we are possibly looking at a new wave of terror. I think the question to ask is when you look at these tapes and the other tapes that were acquired by Nic ... where are they going with this?

When you try to put it in some discernible order, it's clear that they have some sort of plan, plot in place, and I think it requires in-depth scrutiny.