Expert: 'Bin Laden has to be more nervous'

(CNN) -- At the beginning of the military effort in Afghanistan, U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said the most significant part of the campaign might prove to be a "scrap of intelligence." Perhaps more than ever, this observation may indeed be the case.

Nevertheless, intelligence hurdles in the war on terrorism have proven to be significant. U.S. Special Forces continue to try to home in on the location of Osama bin Laden, but the latest thinking from intelligence officials is that the al Qaeda leader is alive and hiding out in that border region between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Much discussion has centered on the autonomous, tribal regions of northwestern Pakistan and the difficulty of penetrating that area.

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"Bin Laden has to be more nervous," said CIA expert Robert Jervis, a professor of international relations at Columbia University.

"If anyone knows where he is and thinks someone else will turn him in, they might think, 'Hey, it might as well be me that collects the reward money.' So turning in bin Laden can become a corrosive, self-fulfilling prophecy," Jervis said.

Thus the rapid erosion of the Taliban, along with the Afghan tendency to switch loyalties for either money or security, increases the likelihood that someone will guide U.S.-led forces to bin Laden.

But even with a $25 million reward, the history of tribal warfare and bloodshed within Afghanistan creates challenges because Afghans know they could be killed for betraying their loyalties.

"Anyone who provides useful information -- if you turn bin Laden in, your wife, your cousin, your brother-in-law -- are all at risk of serious retaliation because even if the terrorist network is smashed, they'll be enough people who want revenge," said Richard Betts, a Columbia University professor.

Terrorism experts said they believe bin Laden eludes detection by rarely staying in the same place and traveling only at night.

Intelligence officials also suspect he stopped using a satellite phone when court records from the trial of Ramzi Yousef (convicted in the 1993 truck bombing of the World Trade Center) revealed that U.S. intelligence had intercepted satellite phone conversations.

Bin Laden increasingly is in a predicament. On the one hand, he seeks to be well-guarded, yet he also must avoid detection -- contradictory goals that can create complications.

"I don't see how he can elude capture forever. ...," Jervis added. "The lighter he travels, the less likely he is to be detected. Yet he also needs protection, and the more defended he is, the more he is a hard target to destroy and is easier to find."