Think tanks: Iraq not immediate nuclear threat

Reports say weapons capabilities exist but are limited

(CNN) -- With President Bush preparing to state his case this week to the United Nations for ousting Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, assessments by several think tanks indicate Iraq's nuclear capabilities are nascent but could develop quickly with outside help.

In a report released Monday, the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies said Iraq does not have the facilities to make enough material for a nuclear weapon by itself but could "probably assemble" one within months if Saddam could get fissile material from outside sources.

The report concluded Iraq would need several years and "extensive foreign assistance" to build the necessary factories to produce a nuclear weapon.

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"There is a nuclear wild card ...," said the report from the international research group that looks at political, economic and military trends.

"Iraq could produce a nuclear weapon on fairly short notice if it was somehow able to acquire sufficient nuclear material from a foreign source. But there is no evidence that Iraq has done so."

A recent analysis from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a Washington-based nonprofit organization that seeks to promote cooperation among nations, reached a similar conclusion. It said no evidence exists that Iraq has a nuclear weapon or will soon have one unless Saddam can procure fissile material from another country.

The Carnegie report notes that inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency supervised the destruction of most of Iraq's facilities for developing nuclear weapons and removed all weapons-grade nuclear material from the country.

The Vienna, Austria-based agency recently stated that it has had no new information on Iraq's nuclear program since 1998 when U.N. weapons inspectors left the country.

In June, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington institute for national security studies, said Iraq probably could make a nuclear device "relatively quickly" if it could obtain fissile material but would not be able to launch it at a target from any considerable distance.

The Carnegie report concurs, stating Iraq has no capability to launch an attack on the United States from its territory and that U.S. intelligence agencies estimate the country will not have an intercontinental-range missile until 2015 at the earliest.

Chemical, biological threat more tangible

Both the International Institute for Strategic Studies and Carnegie reports point to chemical and biological weapons as the most pressing threat Iraq poses.

The Carnegie analysis said Iraq "almost certainly does have large numbers of chemical weapons and some biological weapons or agents," even though U.N. inspectors destroyed millions of liters of chemical agents and precursors after the Persian Gulf War.

The report notes, however, that Iraq does not possess the means to deliver such weapons "more than a few miles outside its borders." It said the greatest threat Iraq poses would be from the delivery of a biological agent by a truck, ship or small aircraft.

The International Institute for Strategic Studies said Iraq "has probably retained" large amounts of biological and chemical agents from its pre-Gulf War stockpile and is capable of resuming production of such weapons "on short notice."

However, the report said that "there can be no certainty" about the size of the Iraqi arsenal.

The report's closing may sum up the complexity of dealing with the Iraqi situation.

"Wait and the threat will grow; strike and the threat may be used."