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Review: Saddam capable of Scud use
WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Iraq will not fire the estimated two dozen Scud missiles it has hidden unless President Saddam Hussein feels his regime is directly threatened with collapse, an intelligence review predicts. The review, obtained by CNN, focuses on how Baghdad might try to use the Scuds -- believed hidden since the 1991 Gulf War -- once any kind of military attack begins.
A critical issue for Pentagon war planners looking at the Iraqi threat is whether the missiles are "technically" able to be fired after being in storage for more than a decade, as the United States believes. The analysis found that depending on how the missiles were stored, the Iraqis could have them ready to fire in half a day, or as long as two weeks. It would depend on whether the Iraqis have properly maintained the missiles in storage, with the correct temperature and humidity. It is assumed that Israel would be the major target for the Iraqis, as it was during the Gulf War. Another factor would be the quality of the missile fuel. Still, the report concludes that Iraq has the capability of pulling hidden Scuds out of storage and firing them. Intelligence analysts made the point that the Russians successfully used Scuds that had been stored for some time against Chechnya. The assessment notes that the U.S. intelligence community is continuing to gather information on sites in western Iraq that might serve as Scud launch pads. During the Gulf War, missiles were fired from approximately a half dozen locations in western Iraq, including Wadi Al Jabariyah, Wadi Ar Ratqa, Qasr Amij and Al Amij. These sites were largely destroyed by U.N. weapons inspectors after the war. Re-activation of these particular sites was deemed unlikely in the assessment because site work would be quickly detected, and would constitute a violation of the cease-fire agreements, putting Saddam in a more difficult position in his effort to get sanctions lifted. But western Iraq remains an area of intense interest for Israeli security forces because it is the area deemed most likely from which Scuds would be launched. The United States has made a private commitment to protect Israel's security from Iraq's Scud launches, including a promise to place U.S. Special Forces in western Iraq as quickly as possible after a conflict begins. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld acknowledged that arrangement with Israelis in a recent press conference. "We're sensitive to the risks. They live in a difficult neighborhood. And needless to say, our interest and their interest would be in avoiding any attack on Israel. And we intend to do, as they intend to do, those kinds of things that would deter and dissuade that from happening." Additionally, intelligence sources have told CNN that Israeli forces recently have conducted reconnaissance in western Iraq to help gather updated information on Scud locations. So far, officials say there is no evidence Iraq has moved its Scud missiles or launchers. Sources say a major unknown is Iraq's so-called "red line" which is defined by the intelligence community as the point at which Saddam feels so threatened by potential collapse of his regime that he orders the Scuds to be moved into launch positions. Officials say there are competing views inside the intelligence community: either when there is a large buildup of U.S. troops in the region; or specifically perhaps when a large number of U.S. troops are inside Iraq.
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