Forecast: 'Weak to moderate' El Niño this year

CAMP SPRINGS, Maryland (CNN) -- The Pacific Ocean will see only "weak to moderate" El Niño conditions by the end of the year 2002, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted Thursday.

In its monthly assessment, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center said early indications suggest that the currently forming El Niño will be but a shadow of the fierce system observed in 1997 and 1998.

NOAA said its network of monitoring buoys have detected temperatures as much as 2 degrees Fahrenheit above average in the waters of the Pacific Ocean near the South American coast. When those waters warm -- which usually happens about twice a decade -- they trigger a chain reaction of temporary changes in air and water currents over much of the globe, including a trend toward warmer, rainier weather in the southern and western United States, and drier weather in much of Southeast Asia.

The 1997-1998 El Niño caused billions of dollars in storm damage on the U.S. West Coast and triggered catastrophic drought-related fires in Indonesia.

EXTRA INFORMATION • Interactive: Notable effects attributed to El Nino  (1997 - 1998) • Fact sheet: Charting El Nino

"It is important to add that a weak or moderate El Niño would feature considerably weaker global impacts than were experienced during the very strong 1997-1998 El Niño," said a statement from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

The name "El Niño" was coined centuries ago by Peruvian fishermen, who noticed warming waters and a change in their fish catch in certain years around Christmas -- the celebration of the birth of el Niño, the Christ child.