EU faces sanctions dilemma

By CNN European Political Editor Robin Oakley

LONDON, England (CNN) -- The European Union's "consultations" with a delegation of Zimbabwe ministers have involved a critical examination of the country's civil rights record.

EU sanctions against Robert Mugabe's increasingly dictatorial regime now seem inevitable. But it may take some time.

The EU has a Zimbabwe aid programme of about $200 million which could be suspended. But with most of that money going to educational projects and to the battle against HIV/AIDS it does not want to penalise Zimbabwe's people for the sins of its political leaders.

Significantly the EU kept Friday's session with Zimbabwe ministers low key. Senior political figures like Chris Patten, the External Affairs Commissioner, stayed out of the limelight and the meeting was conducted by Spain's permanent ambassador to the EU and by middle-ranking officials.

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It underlined once again the EU's fears that Mugabe would misrepresent any action as oppression by sympathisers with the old colonial power, Britain, to whip up support for his regime. They have watched him employ the same tactics already, turning a blind eye to the forcible occupation of Zimbabwe's predominantly white-owned commercial farms and using the issues of land and race, to obscure the economic catastrophe over which he has presided.

Mugabe is facing a strong challenge from Morgan Tsvangarai, the leader of the Movement for Democratic Change in Zimbabwe. But diplomats fear Tsvangarai's chances are receding as Mugabe clamps down ruthlessly on any form of opposition or free media comment.

The EU meeting under its trade agreement with ACP (Africa, Caribbean and Pacific countries) is supposed to be followed by a further consultation period of up to 60 days.

But with the outside world outraged by draconian new laws pushed through by the Mugabe regime to stifle dissent, muzzle the media and ban international observers from the presidential election in March, EU leaders are now coming under pressure to be seen doing something.

EU foreign ministers are due to meet on January 28 and 29 and Britain's Foreign Secretary Jack Straw has indicated the growing alarm at what is happening in Zimbabwe by declaring that if things continue to deteriorate Britain will press for the suspension of Zimbabwe from the 54-nation Commonwealth.

In the meantime it seems that EU officials are searching for a form of "smart sanctions" which could be used to penalise the Mugabe's regime without hitting Zimbawe's people, already suffering from soaring inflation and high unemployment.

Members of the European Parliament, like the British Conservative Geoffrey van Orden, have been urging visa bans on Mugabe and his ministers and their families, preventing them from travelling to the 15 EU countries, the 13 would-be EU countries and any others who can be persuaded to join the ban. In addition they want Mugabe's assets in Europe frozen.

Van Orden told CNN: "We've really got to do something about it before it's too late. But I think we also need to say that there is another side to the coin. "It's stick and carrot. There's an awful lot of international aid out there waiting to come into a country like Zimbabwe if they out their house in order.

"We are not seeking in any way to oppress Zimbabwe. We want to help and it's up to Mugabe to change his ways and to ensure that we have democratic elections carried out in a full and fair manner."

Diplomats are trying to gauge Mugabe's tactics in calling the presidential election for March 9-10, just a week after the Commonwealth Heads of Government meeting in Brisbane, Australia, scheduled for March 2-5.

They do not know at this stage whether he will use the election as an excuse for staying away from the meeting, at which he is likely to face calls for Zimbabwe's suspension, or whether he will go there to grandstand and to represent himself as a victim.