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Kenya attacks: Echoes of Bali?
By Joe Havely
(CNN) -- If the Kenyan attacks were carried out by al Qaeda, they will add further weight to suspicions that Osama bin Laden's terrorist network is shifting its focus to so-called "soft targets." Coming just over six weeks after the deadly bombings on Bali -- attacks which have also been linked to al Qaeda -- concerns have been raised that the terror group may now be spotlighting tourist resorts as a relatively vulnerable, low security target that nonetheless has a highly visible impact. It is a strategy, experts say, designed to hurt psychologically, as well as physically -- to spread fear and to provoke a backlash. Speaking to CNN shortly after the Mombasa attacks, Dan Plesch of the Royal United Services Institute, a UK-based body for the study of defense and security issues, said it was important in the face of such acts not to play into the terrorists' hands. "We have to look carefully at what their political motivation is," he said. "For example, in Indonesia it was a clear attempt to destabilize the Indonesian economy and attack western decadence." In the case of the Mombasa attacks, he said, they were clearly designed to coincide with a leadership battle in Israel's governing Likud party. Those behind the attacks, he said, "would like to drive Israeli politics even farther to the right because they want a more extreme solution." 'Overreaction'"One of the motives of the terrorists is to incite overreaction," Plesch said. "We have to remember that they really want us to crack down because that really plays into their hands." Nonetheless, by targeting such so-called "soft targets" as tourists, experts say those behind the attacks are clearly aiming to ratchet up the levels of fear and with it the inevitable pressure for retaliatory action. As with Mombasa, the Bali bombings -- which left almost 200 dead -- struck at the tourist heartland of a relatively poor country with security levels well below Western levels.
After the awesome scale of the September 11 attacks in the United States, terrorism experts say al Qaeda may have shifted to carrying out smaller but equally dramatic and psychologically damaging attacks around the world. That way, the theory goes, al Qaeda is demonstrating its continued ability to strike anyone, anywhere and at a time of its choosing -- adding to the sense of fear and vulnerability. On top of that, as with Bali, it appears that the Kenyan attacks were a coordinated effort, beginning with an apparent attempt to bring down a departing airliner using shoulder-launched missiles, and followed minutes later by the bombing of a hotel. Strategy of fearAt the time of the Bali attack terrorism experts pointed to the fact that at least four bombs -- three on Bali and one elsewhere in Indonesia -- had detonated within a short space of time. That, they said, was evidence of al Qaeda's evolving strategy of both spreading fear and demonstrating that despite the massive international anti-terror effort the group is still capable of mounting a sophisticated, coordinated attack. It also demonstrates the continued vulnerability of potential terrorist targets across the globe. In the wake of the Bali attacks, a series of travel warnings were issued by Western governments. The alerts warned against travel to some countries and advised nationals to exercise "extreme caution" when visiting others. However, what exactly that means in practice -- short of avoiding travel altogether -- is unclear. As was demonstrated in Mombasa, the simple fact remains that tourists and tourist sites represent a relatively easy target for terrorists.
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