Mike Boettcher: Pakistan, India and al Qaeda

CNN's Mike Boettcher

BAGRAM, AFGHANISTAN (CNN) -- The simmering tensions between Pakistan and India over the disputed Kashmir region -- exacerbated by Pakistan's recent tests of short-range missiles -- could have an unintended effect on the hunt for accused terrorist mastermind Osama bin Laden and his followers.

CNN Correspondent Mike Boettcher has more on the standoff and its impact on the war on terrorism.

BOETTCHER: This is a place where one action affects another action and can create a chain reaction.

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Pakistan is moving troops to Kashmir, to that region. And if they do indeed pull troops back to join in that possible conflict on the border there with Kashmir, it does leave open those safe havens [along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border] that intelligence sources have been telling us about for a long time.

Anywhere from 100 to 1,000 al Qaeda and Taliban are believed to be on the other side of the border in the tribal areas in Pakistan.

Now British authorities say that they have been launching operations -- Operation Snipe and Operation Condor -- over the past several weeks. They have taken some criticism back home that they did not find any al Qaeda and Taliban.

But a senior British official said [Tuesday] that is proof that those operations were very successful -- that they have continued to push Taliban and al Qaeda to the Pakistan border and that they do not want to challenge coalition forces in the region.

Now one thing coming up could affect this whole equation. That is the loya jirga -- the big general meeting, general assembly of Afghan leaders in which the new national government will be elected here. There are concerns, according to intelligence sources, that there will be possible disruption by al Qaeda and Taliban, or attempts to disrupt that meeting.

So all of this going on right now is a very difficult puzzle to follow, but every piece has to be in place in order to stop the Taliban and al Qaeda, according to coalition officials.