Bush visit to test Beijing's open door policy

By Willy Wo-Lap Lam
Senior China Analyst

(CNN) -- Whether President George W. Bush will speak at Tsinghua University or the Central Party School (CPS) could say much about the future of Chinese politics.

While Bush's Beijing tour later this month will last no more than 48 hours, President Jiang Zemin has squeezed in for his guest a lecture at an institute of higher learning.

Diplomatic sources in Beijing say the American leader will either deliver his address at Tsinghua, sometimes known as China's MIT, or the CPS, which is the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) foremost think tank.

Tsinghua, the alma mater of Premier Zhu Rongji, Vice-President Hu Jintao and Vice-Premier Wen Jiabao, is a safe choice given that former president Bill Clinton did his thing at Peking University (Beida), or "China's Harvard," in 1998.

While there will be a supposedly free-wheeling discussion with Tsinghua students, it is expected that, as with Clinton at Beida, those given the chance to pose questions to Bush will be pre-selected -- and elaborately coached by diplomats and U.S. experts.

However, it is understood that some among cadres charged with finalizing the itinerary are in favor of a bold gesture, meaning the CPS venue.

Open door policy

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Given that the speech and subsequent exchange with CPS faculty -- as well as cadres taking ideological classes there -- will be televised live, the event will say much about Sino-US relations and Chinese politics.

Since the CPS was until recently a custodian of orthodoxy and off limits to foreign visitors, Bush's appearance there will testify to his hosts' commitment to the open door policy and improvement of Sino-American ties.

After all, the party school has in the past year or so already invited several senior American Sinologists to take part in its seminars.

A CPS talk for Bush will, however, say even more about two key developments in domestic politics: whether heir apparent Hu will have real power when he takes over the position of party General Secretary from Jiang at the 16th CCP Congress this autumn; and whether Beijing is committed to some form of political reform.

Hu has converted the CPS into one of his major power bases since he became its principal in 1993.

Analysts say given Hu's lack of a diplomatic portfolio, it is doubtful whether Bush will have a one-on-one session with the 59-year-old leader during his whirlwind visit.

Continuous foreign policy

Vice-President Hu Jintao (L) and Premier Zhu Rongji

However, if Bush were to spend time at the CPS, his host there would be Hu -- and the latter could get a lot of exposure on American and world media.

"After Hu's trip to five European countries last October, Washington has sent discreet but strong messages to Beijing that it wants Hu to go to America this year," said a Western diplomat.

"However, Jiang, who wants to go to the U.S. himself, has in principle vetoed a trip for Hu. The president is said to be unhappy that during Hu's visit to Britain, his putative successor was accorded protocol fit for a head of state."

Jiang's allowing Hu to chair a Bush event at the CPS, however, will be a signal that the president is finally willing to pass on the baton -- and that he wants to assure the world of continuity in China's foreign policy.

After all, Hu unexpectedly met with a delegation of former American ambassadors last month.

And the vice president was sitting next to Vice-Premier Qian Qichen when the latter delivered a major speech on Taiwan a fortnight ago.

Prior to these events, Jiang had studiously kept Hu out of diplomatic and Taiwan-related policy-making.

'Inner-party democracy'

Yet the biggest impact of a CPS date for Bush could be its impact on reform, including political liberalization.

Since the late 1990s, the party school has, despite its doctrinaire name and musty facade, metamorphosed into quite a hotbed for new ideas.

For example, Hu has recruited a number of moderate dons into his personal think tank.

Foremost among them is Vice-Principal Zheng Bijian, a speechwriter for the late party chief and star reformer Hu Yaobang.

Beijing insiders have cited a discussion paper recently circulated among CPS scholars as evidence of their liberal credentials.

The document looks at the possibility of "inner-party democracy," or reform of party institutions, in the run-up to the pivotal 16th congress.

The paper, which summed up the results of a survey of the views of cadres and CCP members in a dozen-odd provinces, said there was a severe lack of checks and balances at the top.

Of particular concern was that party secretaries at different administrative levels lacked supervision, which, the document said, might lead to corruption and abuse of power.

Reform and liberalization

Among the paper's recommendations was that delegates to the 16th Congress, who are in the process of being elected, should set up a permanent office so that they can scrutinize and if necessary rectify the performance of the new leadership.

Up until now, the delegates, chosen once every five years, are dismissed -- and rendered powerless -- once a congress is held.

Moreover, the paper said the delegates should have real autonomy in electing members of the ruling Central Committee -- instead of being told what to do by party elders.

It even asked the leadership to consider allowing CCP members to experiment with direct elections, which would eventually lead to the picking of the party bosses of provinces and major cities via a system of "one party member, one vote."

Jiang is said to be dissatisfied with the report if only because he has already been accused by many cadres and party members of riding roughshod over other party factions.

It is also true that given Jiang's preference for stability over risk-taking, he would rather that Bush visit Tsinghua, where the discourse could be more easily confined to the neutral territory of science and technology.

In the long run, however, the CPS's liberalizing influence will, irrespective of whether the U.S. president is going to set foot there, be felt throughout the party.