Russian stance troubles China

China is becoming increasingly worried over improved relations between Putin and Bush

(CNN) -- While relations with the U.S. will likely remain difficult for the foreseeable future, Beijing has a new headache on the geopolitical front: Russia.

Moscow has given successive indications of its leanings towards the U.S. and the West rather than China.

President Vladimir Putin last week reached a historic agreement with U.S. counterpart George W. Bush on the mutual reduction of nuclear arsenals.

Then came the formation of a NATO-Russia Council to coordinate a broad range of security policies.

It is likely that during his visit to Russia later this week, Bush and Putin will come to an understanding -- and even work out some form of cooperation -- regarding Washington's development of a national missile defense (NMD) system.

Beijing's low-key official reaction to these developments could hardly mask the leadership's sense of alarm.

Opposition to the eastward expansion of NATO and to NMD – seen as part of Washington's anti-China containment policy – has been a cornerstone of Beijing's foreign policy.

Without Russian support, however, Beijing's room for maneuver has been considerably reduced.

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According to diplomatic sources, Putin had broached Moscow's intentions about a virtual accommodation with NATO in a telephone conversation with President Jiang Zemin more than a month ago.

In that conversation, whose details were not disclosed by the media, Jiang tried to persuade Putin to at least slow the pace of Moscow's gravitation toward the West – but to no avail.

The sources said Jiang and experts at the Communist Party's Leading Group on Foreign Affairs (LGFA) had come up with the following explanation of Moscow's pro-West stance.

Moscow's motivation

Three reasons were citied by Beijing's diplomatic strategists. Firstly, Putin is convinced Russia should at least temporarily forget about regaining superpower status.

Being a realist, Putin realizes that unless Russia is able to put its economy back on track, it is pointless to assume superpower-like ambitions.

Massive Western support is needed to inject new momentum into the moribund Russian economy.

Secondly, Moscow thinks it can gain both economically and in other areas through thorough cooperation with Washington on anti-terrorism and other security issues.

For example, Moscow sees a quick solution to the Chechnya imbroglio with tacit U.S. support or at least acquiescence.

The third reason cited by Beijing's Russian experts is that so far as NATO is concerned, Putin has come to the conclusion that "if you can't beat them, join them."

Rather than stop the impossible – that is, more former Soviet Bloc countries becoming members of NATO – Moscow stands a better chance of neutralizing the latter's anti-Russian posture if a working relationship can be formed with the grouping.

The challenge for Jiang and the LGFA is how to reverse this trend.

Reversing the trend

Russia's pro-US stance could hamper China's efforts to modernize its military

Russia is China's main supplier of sophisticated military hardware and the "Russian card" was until recently one of the relatively few weapons that Beijing could use against the U.S.

Beijing is laying a lot of store by the summit of the heads of state of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) due to be convened in St Petersburg next month.

The SCO -- incorporating China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan -- was first conceived in 1996 as an anti-NATO bloc.

Beijing has expectations the SCO can help resuscitate China-Russian intimacy -- and firm up China's relationship with key Central Asian states such as Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.

Jiang, a prime initiator of the SCO, hopes the St Petersburg summit can ratify an SCO charter that will confirm close defense and other ties among the members.

Beijing is also vigorously pushing for a permanent SCO secretariat to be set up in the Chinese capital and that it be headed by a Chinese vice-foreign minister.

It is understood, however, that Moscow -- and quite a few other SCO affiliates including Uzbekistan and Tajikistan -- is hardly enthusiastic about revving up SCO as an anti-NATO vehicle.

The LGFA is particularly disturbed by statements by a number of Russian commentators that Moscow should work together with Washington to contain an emergent "China threat."

Failure of the SCO to live up to its potential means China will continue to be exposed along its northwestern border, given that the U.S. troops are almost sure to stay on in Central Asia over the long haul.

Other recent setbacks on the diplomatic front have included Europe's support for Taiwan gaining observer status in the World Health Assembly and the tussle with Tokyo over five North Koreans who tried to enter the Japanese consulate in the northeastern city of Shenyang.

For the time being, however, Beijing, which is preoccupied with domestic issues such as rising unemployment and preparations for the pivotal 16th Communist party Congress, is at a loss to come up with a diplomatic initiative.

President Jiang, the veteran LGFA head, has come under increasing fire for pursuing a "romantic," meaning unrealistic, foreign policy, particularly vis-à-vis the U.S.

Jiang's detractors have in internal discussions cited the president's effort to forge a "constructive, strategic partnership" with the U.S. as a prime example of misguided "romantic diplomacy."

Jiang's answer to such criticism is that given the force of circumstances, Beijing has little choice but to avoid a head-on confrontation with the U.S. while concentrating on developing its economic and military strength.

Earning stripes

China is aiming to send astronauts to the moon within this decade

The Jiang administration is convinced that if China can maintain a seven percent growth rate, it will have no problem winning friends in areas including Europe and the Third World.

Even more significantly, the People's Liberation Army is flexing its muscles.

Particularly noteworthy was the inauguration last week of what analysts call a Maritime New Long March.

Missile destroyer Qingdao and a complement of vessels are circumnavigating the world for the first time in Chinese history.

They will call on countries including Singapore, Egypt, Turkey, the Ukraine, Greece, Portugal, Brazil, Ecuador and Peru in an epic four-month, 30,000 nautical-mile journey.

Around 100,000 crack PLA troops last weekend kicked off a series of hi-tech military maneuvers along the East China coast that will run into the autumn.

And targets for space warfare and technology, including putting a Chinese astronaut on the moon within this decade, have been set.

It seems likely that China will in the foreseeable future remain on the defensive on the foreign policy front.

Yet the party leadership's message to the world cannot be clearer: Just wait till we become an economic -- and military -- quasi-superpower.