Jiang keen to keep tight grip on power

Speculation is rife Jiang is scheming to maintain his grip on power even after he retires

HONG KONG, China (CNN) -- There has been mounting speculation in Beijing that Chinese President Jiang Zemin is scheming to retain his position of Communist party General Secretary, in addition to Chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC).

However, there are perhaps more convincing signs that Jiang will step down at least from the general secretary's slot -- and that a "Hu-Wen-Zeng triumvirate" is poised to take charge at the 16th Party Congress this autumn.

This ruling troika will consist of Vice-President Hu Jintao (slated to become party boss at the 16th Congress, and president six months later), Vice-Premier Wen Jiabao (frontrunner to become premier in early 2003), and Zeng Qinghong, the organization chief who will be put in charge of party affairs.

Let us first examine evidence pointing to Jiang holding on to the post of general secretary after the 16th congress.

Since early summer, the party secretaries of provinces and major cities have joined army generals in circulating petitions asking Jiang to stay on despite his having exceeded by five years the unwritten but widely accepted retirement age of 70.

The reason cited is familiar: in light of fast-shifting socio-economic realities -- and treacherous global conditions particularly vis-à-vis the U.S. and Taiwan -- the country needs somebody with proven experience and ability to remain at the helm.

Famous personages such as writers and scientists have also contributed to the "Jiang don't go" chorus.

In a much-noted interview with the People's Daily last week, rocket scientist Qian Xusen praised Jiang for his rare knack for synthesizing political skills with knowledge of science and technology.

The corollary of Qian's and similar messages is that China cannot afford to do without such a distinguished elder for at least a couple more years.

By contrast, members of the younger or "Fourth Generation" leadership are having a relatively lower profile.

Balance of personalities

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However, a national-level meeting on rural ideology held late last month in east China city of Hangzhou has confirmed, if only at the symbolical level, the ascendancy of the Hu-Wen-Zeng triumvirate.

While the conference was about applying Jiang's Three Represents Theory ("Three Represents" means the party must represent the most advanced production forces; the foremost culture; and the interests of the broad masses) to farm work, it said more about the post-16th Congress line-up.

It was probably the first time that the three Fourth Generation titans had appeared on the same stage.

Because they have different portfolios, there is usually no reason or appropriate occasion -- except for Politburo or parliamentary sessions -- for them to show up at the same public function.

Hu Jintao is widely expected to succeed Jiang to lead China

The Hangzhou meeting, which was attended by cadres from most provinces, was chaired by Zeng, Jiang's top protégé, but it was Hu, 59, who delivered the keynote address.

The vice-president said it was imperative that rural cadres learn how to adopt the Three Represents Theory in their life and work.

"We must implement the Three Represents theory in rural grassroots units," Hu said. "We must synthesize the goal of running the country [in order to] serve the people ... and providing farmers with concrete benefits."

Wen, 59, whose portfolio is agriculture, also gave an address at the conference.

He underscored the importance of going deeply into the grassroots, serving the peasants, and "accepting the supervision of the masses."

Zeng, 63, did not make any speeches except for a brief talk summing up the meeting, in which he heaped high praise on Hu for his "profound analysis" of Jiang's ideas.

"Comrade Hu Jintao's talk is rich in ideas and to the point," Zeng said, adding that it had "vital significance in providing guidance [to party work]."

"We must seriously study and deeply understand [Hu's talk]," Zeng told the cadres.

Fading into the sunset

Vice-Premier Wen Jiabao is a frontrunner to become premier in early 2003

Given that it is rare for a senior cadre to openly eulogize another official of the same rank, Zeng's unusual remarks are an indication that he is willing to serve Hu -- confirmed at the conference as main custodian and interpreter of Jiang Theory -- in the post-16th congress order.

A few months ago, Zeng had made the same point during a seminar in Beijing on the impact of the World Trade Organization, in which Hu made the keynote address.

Zeng, who chaired the conference, praised Hu for making a "comprehensive and profound" analysis of the global situation.

He also asked participants to study and work hard in order to meet the "clear-cut demands of comrade Hu Jintao."

A veteran cadre in Beijing said the Hangzhou conference had dropped strong hints that Hu, Zeng and Wen would be the three most important members of the Politburo Standing Committee (PSC) to be formed at the 16th congress.

"It will be a delicate balance of personalities and factions," the cadre said. "At this stage, Zeng seems willing to defer to Hu. However, Zeng's boss, Jiang, could be the power behind the throne."

Indeed, even if Jiang were only to retain the CMC chairmanship, he will hardly fade into the sunset.

Like late patriarch Deng Xiaoping in much of the 1980s and 1990s, Jiang will remain the ultimate arbiter of politics even after retirement.

Beijing sources say Jiang has recently taken the advice of Teng Wensheng, head of the party Policy Research Office and the president's speechwriter, on how to wield influence from behind the scenes.

The sources say Teng, an expert on Chairman Mao Zedong, has advised Jiang to emulate Mao-style tactics for controlling the Politburo: instead of giving overwhelming power to just one protégé, let two or three top aides fight it out among themselves -- and go to the patriarch for arbitration.

Zeng Qinghong is Jiang's top protege and is likely to be pitted against Hu

Just as Mao's top assistants -- former premier Zhou Enlai and former state president Liu Shaoqi -- had waged bitter battles against each other in the 1960s, so may Hu and Zeng after the 16th congress.

While Hu may have become the prime keeper of and spokesman for Jiang Theory, Zeng's job is to prevent Hu from making subtle revisions of Jiang's teachings.

After all, in the Communist world, it is common for a leader to significantly revise if not betray the ideology of his predecessor.

Witness the de-Stalinization campaign of Nikita Khrushchev of the Soviet Union in the 1950s, and Deng's abandonment of Maoism in the 1980s.

As things stand, it is likely the new PSC will witness a rough balance of power between the Hu and associates such as Wen and Li Ruihuan, the likely new NPC chairman, on the one hand, and Zeng and other Jiang followers on the other.

Yet if Jiang can ensure that these two main factions are locked in combat -- and that both Hu and Zeng have to call on him to mediate unresolved disputes -- his grip on power will still be pretty tight.