Saber rattling over Taiwan Strait

China's People's Liberation Army marks its 75th anniversary on August 1

(CNN) -- President Jiang Zemin likes to ask his advisers about the pace of change needed to achieve reunification with Taiwan: "Which way is the momentum going? Should we do it quickly, or aim for the long haul? Which is better?"

Even though Jiang's aides have yet to give him a definitive assessment, recent events seem to indicate Beijing is looking for a longer-term solution to the Taiwan imbroglio.

At least in the near term, it is unlikely tension -- or saber rattling -- will flare up in the Taiwan Strait.

The energy of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership is absorbed by the transition of power to the Fourth Generation, or younger, leadership.

Moreover, with China having just been admitted to the World Trade Organization -- and with preparations for the 2008 Olympics in full swing -- Beijing wants to project to the world the image of a rational, business-oriented administration.

Sizable flexibility

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Since early this year, Beijing has kicked off a series of conciliatory measures to Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian, also Chairman of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party.

For example, Vice-Premier Qian Qichen said in January DPP members who were not "diehard separatists" were welcome to visit the mainland.

On July 5, Qian said negotiations on the three direct links of mail, transport and business could commence without Taipei having to declare its obeisance to the "one-China policy."

What was needed, the vice-premier said, was only that Taipei would "regard the three links as a domestic matter."

The overture was considered as a concession by many non-DPP observers in Taipei.

For example, well-known academic and commentator Shih Chi-ping said the Qian formula afforded sizeable flexibility.

"The trick lies in the word 'regard'," Shih said. "'Regard' does not necessarily carry the connotation of a public declaration.

"Taipei can send a delegation to the mainland to talk about the three links and that group is not obliged to make a public acknowledgement of whether they 'regard' the links as a domestic issue."

The Qian proposal was, however, rejected the next day by President Chen, who said it was but old wine in new bottles.

Economic dependence

In his address upon assuming the DPP chairmanship last month, Chen issued the threat that Taiwan would "go down its own road" should Beijing continue to snub its overtures.

However, the charismatic Taiwan leader also pledged a week later that Taipei would not change its status quo -- meaning its political status -- if Beijing were willing to renounce the use of force against it.

Tsai Ing-wen, Chair of the cabinet-level Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) said Taipei was ready to sit down with mainland officials -- whether publicly or in private -- to discuss how to improve cross-Strait relations.

Tsai added, however, that there must be no preconditions for the talks and that "Beijing must try to understand the democratic system in Taiwan."

It seems, however, difficult for Beijing to either recognize or respect Taiwan-style democracy.

And the main reason why it has largely adopted a policy of forbearance is the perception that the momentum in the cross-Strait tug-of-war is going China's way.

Leaps-and-bounds growth along the China east has proven a magnet that has attracted not just Taiwan capital but the best of managerial and IT talents from the island.

Close to one million Taiwanese are living and working in coastal China -- and Taiwanese are among the largest group of buyers of luxurious apartments in Shanghai and Shenzhen.

Dr Li Fei, a researcher at Xiamen University, thinks that existing trade and investment figures are gross under-estimations.

For example, the official Beijing figure on cumulative Taiwan investment in the mainland is $55.47 billion, while that given by Taipei is $20.16 billion.

Li said the real figure could be more than $100 billion, adding Taiwan's economic dependence on the mainland would act as a potent antidote to separatism.

"When Taiwanese living and working on the mainland have increased to, say, 2 million, the momentum for independence will be blunted," Li said.

De facto independence

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Professor Su Chi, a former MAC chairman, also thinks that the establishment of direct transport and business links across the Strait will pretty much make it impossible for Taiwan to declare independence.

This was why, Su indicated, the DPP's Chen had put up one obstacle after another to establishing direct links.

However, a good number of analysts in both Beijing and Taipei also believe that economics does not necessarily dictate political development.

This is despite Marx's famous dictum that economics underpins much of a nation's "superstructure," including politics and culture.

That Taiwan voters do not necessarily heed economic trends was evident in parliamentary elections on the island last December.

Contrary to expectations of experts in Taipei and Beijing, the DPP -- and the Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU), which is much more radical than the ruling party in pursuing independence -- made substantial gains at the polls despite that the DPP's poor ties with Beijing had hurt the island's economy.

From the point of view of the DPP -- and the TSU -- time is on the side of the advocates of either de facto or de jure independence.

Even before Chen and his DPP colleagues swept to power in early 2000, Taiwan schools had been emphasizing the island's unique culture, dialect and identity.

That the DPP wants to sever Taiwan's links with the mainland was illustrated by Taipei's surprise decision last month to adopt its own system in transliterating Chinese.

Under Taiwan's new Tongyong scheme, the word China will be rendered as Jhong Guo, as distinguished from Zhong Guo under the mainland's pinyin system.

This is despite the fact that most China-related textbooks, maps and legal documents in the West as well as Asia have adopted the mainland version.

Given U.S. President George W. Bush's pledge last year to do "whatever it takes" to defend Taiwan against a mainland invasion, Chen feels the DPP will have enough time to further nurture Taiwan's distinctive cultural and political identity.

"Chen's gamble is that while the Taiwan economy may become partially dependent on the mainland, the strong sense of a separate identity among Taiwanese will prevent the island's absorption by the mainland," said a Western diplomat in Taiwan.

"And in a decade's time, the mainland's integration with the world economy may render it impossible to use the military option, a move that could shatter the hard-won prosperity of China's rich coastal cities."