Beijing nervous after Japan-N. Korea talks

Kim and Koizumi met for the first time in Pyongyang

HONG KONG, China (CNN) -- Beijing is afraid its influence over North Korea may decline following Pyongyang's marathon diplomatic forays that culminated in Tuesday's meeting between Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi and North Korean strongman Kim Jong Il.

On the surface, the Chinese government has expressed support for the ice-breaking meeting, which could lay the stage for the establishment of full ties between North Korea and Japan in the near future.

State media on Wednesday quoted Foreign Ministry spokesman Kong Quan as saying normalization of ties between the two countries would be "conducive to the peace, stability and development in east Asia."

Diplomatic analysts said while Beijing was aware of -- and had given active support to -- rapprochement efforts between officials from the two countries, it was taken aback by Koizumi's late August announcement of his personal visit to Pyongyang.

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Moreover, while Kim made a special trip to Beijing in May 2000 to discuss with Chinese leaders about his forthcoming meeting with South Korean President Kim Dae-jung, the North Koreans have this time provided Beijing much less information about its Tokyo agenda.

"For reasons including a collapsing economy, the Kim regime has been unusually aggressive in cementing ties with Russia this year," said an Asian diplomat.

"North Korea is also anxious to establish diplomatic relations with European countries and to revive talks with the U.S."

The diplomat said should North Korea be able to clinch an economic lifeline from Japan or a Western country, Beijing's clout over its client state may decrease gradually.

For more than two decades, Beijing has effectively used the "Pyongyang" card in dealings with the U.S. and Japan.

Should North Korea become less of China's client state, Beijing's ability to wield that card might be affected.

Moreover, there is intense competition between Beijing and Tokyo to spearhead the development of a Northeast Asia economic zone, which incorporates the two Koreas and Far East Russia in addition to China and Japan.

As Beijing commentator Shi Yiren pointed out, Koizumi's trip to Pyongyang was partly spurred by recent decisions among the two Koreas and Russia to speed up economic and infrastructure cooperation, including building a railway across the Korean Peninsula.

Shi said Tokyo wanted to play a leading role in the development of this strategic region.

It is believed Beijing, which has a big economic stake in Northeast Asia, is nervously eyeing whatever business and other deals that might have been struck between Koizumi and Kim.