China's leaders battle for place in history

President Jiang Zemin is banking on the staying power of his 'Theory of the Three Represents'

(CNN) -- It's the legacy thing. The activities of the top leaders the last month or so before the 16th Communist party congress tell a lot about their personalities, worldviews -- and the future of reform.

For President Jiang Zemin, it's a question of convincing the nation that he still matters after either full or partial retirement at the congress.

His intriguing conversation with Singaporean Senior Minister Lee Kuan Yew last week made it clear the president wanted to follow in the footsteps of the revered but also controversial elder statesman.

"Although you no longer take up the highest post, you are still very busy," Jiang told Lee. "People of our age should keep their brains working ceaselessly."

Judging by the Chinese media, the 76-year-old party general secretary seems to be the only person who is doing any serious thinking in the nation of 1.3 billion people.

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Saturation coverage has been given to Jiang's "Theory of Three Represents" (that the party must represent the foremost productivity and culture as well as the people's interests), deemed "the foundation of the party, the basis of governance and the source of [national] strength."

Earlier this month, the president's publicists put out the 560,000-character tome "Jiang Zemin on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics," which is supposed to be evidence of Jiang's having "developed" the ideas of Mao and late patriarch Deng Xiaoping.

New paths

According to briefing papers issued by the Propaganda Department, Jiang has hacked out new paths in 14 areas, which range from economic and political reform to diplomacy and military affairs.

Starting this week, the media will feature regular articles and TV programs on the nation's achievements in economic, diplomatic and other areas since 1989, when Jiang took power.

However, the president's legacy is being challenged well before his retirement.

Liberal academics, including those in the Central Party School, have said it is unscientific to talk about the past 13 years in isolation.

"If the party is to sum up the achievements of the reform and open-door policies, it should begin with late 1978, when Deng unveiled the era of reform," said an Academy of Social Sciences economist.

"Much of the economic growth in the past decade or so is due to policies laid down by Deng and his lieutenants, including [former party chiefs] Hu Yaobang and Zhao Ziyang."

A major theoretical breakthrough that Jiang is said to have made is the idea of the "preliminary stage of socialism," meaning it is way too early for China to do away with private capital and market mechanisms.

However, Beijing theorists have indicated this concept was first worked out by Zhao, who was deposed after the June 4, 1989 crackdown.

By contrast, the historical position of Premier Zhu Rongji seems more assured.

Falling prestige

This is despite the fact that the prestige of the 73-year-old Hunan native has fallen markedly the past year both in and out of the country.

The economic czar has been faulted for sustaining a 7% growth rate through incurring record-high budget deficits -- and kick-starting infrastructure projects that have dubious long-term viability.

He has also been criticized for doing too much for Chinese -- and foreign -- businessmen along the rich coast, while neglecting the welfare of jobless workers and destitute farmers, especially those in the heartland.

There is even innuendo that the legendary "Mr Clean" has allegedly allowed his son and daughter, both successful financiers, to use their father's name to nail big contracts.

To counteract the adverse publicity, Zhu has gone to extraordinary lengths to embellish his reputation as a "people's prime minister."

In early summer, the premier complained that while poor civil servants like himself had to pay taxes, dakuan ("nouveau riche big-spenders") were getting away with pocketing every cent of their millions.

Revenue collectors in the big cities soon announced that they had put certain categories of people prone to evading taxes -- including private businessmen and professionals deemed to be the "representatives of the foremost productivity and culture" -- on special watch lists.

And Zhu reportedly authorized the jailing of popular former movie queen Liu Xiaoqing for tax evasion.

Last month, the premier raised eyebrows by warning rapacious real-estate developers to stay away from the Fragrant Hills in the northwest of the capital.

He hinted that the lovely hills and parks should be preserved for the enjoyment of the masses.

Job creation

Zhu has also reiterated his determination to use "1,000 ways and means" to help the disadvantaged sectors of society.

At a national summit on job creation last week, the outgoing premier held provincial, municipal and county officials personally responsible for solving the unemployment problem within their jurisdictions.

But how about the three cadres who are expected to play the most prominent roles post-16th congress: Hu Jintao, Wen Jiabao and Li Ruihuan?

For much the same reasons, both Hu, the likely new party general secretary and Wen, the frontrunner to succeed Zhu as premier, have been as taciturn as Jiang is loquacious.

True to his role as self-defacing heir-apparent, Hu, 59, has maintained a determined reticence apart from mouthing lengthy eulogies of the president's "Theory of the Three Represents."

However, sources close to the vice-president said he had continued to ask his think tanks to come up with suggestions in areas including political reform.

Just when these new ideas will be implemented, however, determines partly on whether Jiang will, in his manner of speaking, stop "keeping his brain working ceaselessly."

Action man

Vice-Premier Wen, 60, is trying to stake out a reputation as a talk-less, do-more administrator in the mold of former premier Zhou Enlai.

The savvy bureaucrat is confident that his record in taming floods and upholding rural stability can propel him to the top -- and he is not about to jeopardize his chances by speaking his mind.

Politburo member Li, 68, one of the most original thinkers among cadres of his generation, has also maintained a Delphic silence.

The official Xinhua website has logged only two reasonably long speeches given in the past half year by Li, who is tipped to become parliamentary chief next March.

It is not coincidental that the former Tianjin mayor is the only senior cadre who has refused to sing the praises of Jiang Thought or the "Theory of the Three Represents."

Instead, Li has played mystic by waxing eloquent on the Theory of Harmony -- a form of neo-Confucianism for the 21st century that advocates tolerance for the coexistence of different schools of thought.

Of course, this doctrine of diversity won't go too far if the media has space and air-time only for one person and one theory, however, "representative" the latter is made out to be.