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Symbolism or substance?China talks up the Texas summit
From CNN Senior China Analyst Willy Wo-Lap Lam
(CNN) -- Beijing has been trying hard to dispel the conventional wisdom that Friday's summit between Presidents Jiang Zemin and George W. Bush in Crawford, Texas, will be more symbolism than substance. The elaborate preparations that Jiang's aides have undertaken for the 76-year-old cadre's farewell U.S. tour are unprecedented in recent Chinese history. Usually media-shy Foreign Ministry officials including Assistant Foreign Minister Zhou Wenzhong and Head of North American Affairs He Yafei have briefed Beijing-based correspondents about the visit's significance. Zhang, He and other diplomats have forecast breakthroughs in relatively tricky areas including the resumption of military-to-military ties. And Ambassador to the U.S. Yang Jiechi said with assurance last weekend that both presidents were poised to forge a "constructive, cooperative relationship" for the 21st century. In a series of meetings with visiting Americans the past month, Jiang himself has waxed optimistic about Sino-U.S. cooperation in areas ranging from trade to fighting terrorism. And in an interview with a Beijing magazine, Vice-Premier Qian Qichen hinted Beijing might agree to give way in certain areas in return for a stable, long-term relationship with the U.S. Qian cited a well-known Chinese aphorism when he said: "We won't haggle with the U.S. over a day or two's worth of gains or losses." No less remarkable are the concessions Beijing has apparently made so as to generate the requisite good vibes for the Crawford barbecue. Last week, Chinese authorities paroled a 25-year-old pro-independence Tibetan nun, Ngawang Sangdrol, after she had spent ten years in jail. And on Sunday, Beijing unveiled a set of fairly comprehensive -- and harsh -- regulations on the export of military equipment and technology. The move followed the publication last week of rules on the overseas sales of dual-use biological and chemical agents, which analysts said were aimed at reassuring Washington of Beijing's commitment to non-proliferation. What exactly does Jiang hope to get in return apart from a Texas-sized swansong? Deng-Carter talksChinese sources close to the Jiang camp have compared the upcoming Jiang-Bush summit with the ice-breaking meeting between late patriarch Deng Xiaoping and former president Jimmy Carter in early 1979. Taking place barely a few weeks after the two countries had established diplomatic ties, the Deng-Carter talks laid down some major ground rules for bilateral conduct for a generation to come. And as a token of Beijing's trust in America, Deng told Carter in confidence that he would soon be "teaching Vietnam a lesson" by launching a so-called "war of retaliation in [the interest of] self-defense" against Beijing's erstwhile ally. While it is unlikely that Jiang will have something as dramatic to tell Bush in their 60-minute tete-a-tete in the Texas ranch, Jiang has reportedly indicated to confidants that he hopes the summit will produce at least two lasting results. The first is Taiwan, perhaps the one area where Jiang has achieved the least in his 13 years in office. The Chinese president wants some firm indication that Washington is opposed to the pro-independence gambit of Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian. Top on Jiang's wish list is a scaling down of American arms sales to Taiwan. Failing this, Beijing wants an ironclad pledge from the White House that it will play an active part in blocking Taiwan independence. As of now, Washington has not done much beyond saying it "does not support" Taiwan separatism -- as well as dropping hints that it does not favor Chen making an "unofficial" visit to the U.S. Sino-U.S. relationsSecondly, Jiang hopes to lay down a kind of an early 21st century framework for Sino-U.S. relations.
The president hopes to revive to some extent the idea of a "constructive strategic partnership" that he and former president Bill Clinton cemented during their summits in 1997 and 1998. The new building block for Sino-U.S. partnership is of course the global struggle against terrorism. The Chinese leader is well aware that Washington wants Beijing's acquiescence in its possible war against Iraq. And in the wake of Pyongyang's bombshell admission earlier this month that it was developing nuclear weapons, the U.S. needs pro-active Chinese assistance in obliging the Kim Il Sung regime to halt its armaments programs. So far, Washington has shown signs that it is at least willing to give face to the departing Communist party supremo. In his interview with Phoenix TV last weekend, Secretary of State Colin Powell said the fact that Jiang was invited to Crawford was evidence the U.S. considered Beijing a friend rather than a foe or competitor. That the Bush administration is amenable to some give-and-take with Beijing became evident last August, when Washington bowed to protracted Chinese lobbying by labeling the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) a terrorist organization. The ETIM's terrorist designation has to some extent legitimized Beijing's long-standing policy of muzzling dissent in restive, Muslim Xinjiang. Now Jiang is putting pressure on Washington to make one more concession on another separatist front: Taiwan. Of course, it is still possible Jiang's relatively brief U.S. tour will yield little more than a series of photo ops with quaint settings. Analysts in Beijing think, however, that no matter what happens, Jiang will at least make headway in the one area where the U.S. has no control: the domestic Chinese propaganda machinery, which is playing up the Crawford "love-in" as a lasting symbol of the president's apparently successful Great Power Diplomacy. From Jiang's perspective, much of his Texas sojourn is for domestic consumption, meaning buttressing the claim that he has bequeathed a legacy of brilliant foreign-policy triumphs. "After Jiang's Beijing summit with Clinton four years ago, his aides conducted an elaborate series of briefings to mid- to senior-ranked cadres," said a Chinese Academy Social Sciences scholar. "The main point of the propaganda exercise was that Jiang -- and nobody else in the Politburo -- had won the support of the American political elite, and that no other cadre had the experience and breadth of vision to effectively handle the aggressive Yankees." The president's advisers seem confident the Crawford barbecue will bolster their claim that even after retirement, Jiang should still have a big say in foreign and security matters. Moreover, Jiang wants to impress upon the Central Committee and Politburo that will be formed at the upcoming 16th Party Congress that in the wake of the new game rules that he and Bush have drawn up for bilateral ties, heir-apparent Vice-President Hu Jintao need do little more than follow in his footsteps. All the sweet and high-sounding things that Jiang's aides have said about Sino-U.S. relations the past fortnight will not be in vain if the wily president can somehow put new meaning into the dynastic-Chinese trick known as seeking honor abroad to shore up one's position -- and legacy -- back home.
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