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Jiang scores big by removing long-time foe
By Willy Wo-Lap Lam
(CNN) -- Chinese President Jiang Zemin is poised for a major coup: forcing long-time political foe, Li Ruihuan, to retire from the ruling Politburo at the 16th Communist Party congress. The conclave, which opens on Friday, will oversee a large-scale changing of the guard in the Politburo, the Politburo Standing Committee (PSC) and other senior bodies. Held every five years, the congress is keenly watched because it unveils the passage of the baton from the older to the fourth generation --or cadres aged in their late 50s and early 60s -- and affects policy for years to come. In what is regarded as a big victory for Jiang, the retiring patriarch is expected to fill four out of the seven seats of the new PSC with his cronies and supporters. Li and Vice-President Hu Jintao -- both of whom are not Jiang protégés -- were slated to be the only two out of seven PSC incumbents to secure a second term. Under this scenario, Li, 68, a popular Chairman of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), was thought to be a shoo-in to replace retiring Li Peng as Chairman of the National People's Congress (NPC). However, party sources in Beijing said over the weekend that Li's name would most probably be dropped from the new PSC list. "Li is set to make an exit from the Politburo and the PSC together with such third generation stalwarts as Jiang, Li Peng and [Premier] Zhu Rongji," said a source close to preparations for the congress. "While Li is two years shy of the retirement age of 70, Jiang has worked hard on his removal because the CPPCC chief is the only senior cadre who has refused to publicly salute Jiang Zemin Theory." Diplomatic analysts in Beijing say the new seven-man PSC will be heavily stacked with Jiang protégés, including organization chief Zeng Qinghong, Vice-Premier Wu Bangguo, former Shanghai party secretary Huang Ju and former Beijing party secretary Jia Qinglin. After the 16th congress, Zeng will likely be in charge of party affairs, while Jia will replace Li Ruihuan as CPPCC chairman. The posts of NPC chairman and executive vice-premier are tipped to go to Huang and Wu. As originally planned, Vice-President Hu will take over Jiang's post as party general secretary, while Vice-Premier Wen Jiabao will replace his mentor Zhu as prime minister. The last PSC slot -- head of the anti-graft organ, the Central Commission for Disciplinary Inspection -- will be held by Luo Gan, a protégé of Li Peng's. Political analysts said while two cadres not from the Jiang faction -- Hu and Wen -- will be occupying China's two most important jobs of party chief and premier, it is likely Jiang will continue to be the de-facto patriarch of the party and country. Jiang, 76, who will also yield his state presidency to Hu next March, is tipped to retain his chairmanship of the Central Military Commission for a couple of years.
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