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Beijing's North Korea conundrum
By Willy Wo-Lap Lam
(CNN) -- Chairman Mao Zedong used to say: "Turn a bad thing into a good thing." Today Beijing is following the Great Helmsman's dictum in handling a tough diplomatic issue at its doorstep: the North Korean leadership's apparent effort to hold much of the world hostage by developing nuclear weapons. On the one hand, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) administration is embarrassed by innuendo that it has provided military technology to its long-time ally. On the other, Beijing's geopolitical bargaining chips have increased as nations including the U.S., Japan and South Korea have turned to the Chinese leadership for help reining in the regime in Pyongyang. Of particular significance is the call for assistance from the United States, whose friendship is deemed by Beijing as essential to its just-announced goal of quadrupling the Chinese economy by the year 2020. Many Chinese commentators see the war on terrorism unleashed in September last year as a turning point in Sino-U.S. ties. Constructive roleOn issues such as Baghdad's development of weapons of mass destruction (WMD), what Beijing can offer the United States is restricted largely to not vetoing Iraq-related initiatives on the United Nations Security Council. Yet because of its time-honored clout with the Kim dynasty, Beijing is in a position to do much more for a Washington that is preoccupied with a possible war against the Saddam Hussein regime. As the China News Service pointed out in a commentary earlier this week, China and the U.S. have recently undertaken effective cooperation on the anti-terrorism front. "On the question of the Korean Peninsula, the U.S. hopes China will play a positive and constructive role, and the Chinese side has clearly indicated its wish to see the peninsula de-nuclearized," the semi-official agency reported. The CCP leadership seems flattered by the fact that within the past two months, three senior U.S. officials including Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage had visited the country to persuade Beijing to put pressure on North Korea. Little wonder that top cadres including President Jiang Zemin and Vice-Premier Qian Qichen have the past week or so highlighted what they call "auspicious trends in Sino-U.S. ties." GamblerTaking the longer view, the North Korean imbroglio could provide an opportunity for the new leadership under CCP General Secretary Hu Jintao to show the West that China is not only an emerging world factory but a responsible, pro-active member of the global community. The extent to which Beijing can play a useful role in defusing the North Korean crisis, however, could be constrained by a number of factors. It is true that Beijing was taken by surprise by the advanced nature of Pyongyang's uranium enrichment program, which was first revealed to a U.S. envoy last October. Internal papers written by Chinese think tanks have reiterated that Beijing must not be dragged into a military conflict because of Kim's "adventurism." And Pyongyang's latest antics -- reactivating a nuclear reactor mothballed since 1994 -- have reinforced some Chinese strategists' view that Kim is even more of a reckless gambler than his father Kim Il Sung. However, there is also a strong body of opinion in the Chinese foreign-policy establishment that while Pyongyang has gone overboard in its WMD program, a reasonably high degree of roguishness on its part may serve China's purposes just fine. Beijing sees in North Korea a buffer vis-à-vis Japan and South Korea. For example, if the Kim regime were to liberalize and eventually reunite with the South, a united Korea could pose a threat to China's perceived position of pre-eminence in Northeast Asia. China's trump cardsMoreover, Beijing could use its leverage over a recalcitrant North Korea to extract concessions from the United States in areas ranging from Taiwan to Washington's human rights policy. There is already evidence that mindful of China's contribution to the war on terrorism, Washington has subtly toned down its criticism of the CCP's treatment of dissidents and pro-independence activists. This special consideration will affect Beijing's willingness and ability to play hardball with Pyongyang over the WMD issue. So far, Beijing has hardly cracked the whip on Kim and his henchmen. In its statements on the North Korean gambit, the Chinese Foreign Ministry has kept to the line that it is consistent Chinese policy to promote a de-nuclearized Korean Peninsula -- and that only diplomatic means should be used to tackle the crisis. Senior cadres have never scolded Kim or his colleagues for irresponsible international behavior, let alone the heinous crime of WMD-based blackmail. And on-the-record comments on Pyongyang that Chinese leaders have made while meeting U.S. or Russian delegations have remained cautious and restrained. Good neighborlinessDespite the rejuvenation in CCP leadership, many cadres believe Beijing and Pyongyang should retain their 1950s-vintage "lips and teeth" relationship if for no other than geopolitical reasons. As People's Daily Korean specialist Zhao Jiaming pointed out, Sino-North Korean relationship has been consolidated the past year based on the principle of "good neighborliness and strengthened cooperation." Diplomatic analysts said Beijing would not stand idle should Washington use tough tactics against North Korea -- such as launching pre-emptive surgical strikes against WMD production facilities -- after successfully crushing Saddam Hussein's war machine. A source close to the diplomatic establishment in Beijing said if some form of military conflict were to erupt between the U.S. and North Korea, it is most improbable that Beijing would commit troops to defend its ally. However, the source said Beijing would likely supply Pyongyang with military hardware such as anti-missile weaponry or intelligence-gathering gadgets. At the height of the Kosovo conflict in mid-1999, the Kim regime had sounded out Beijing for help should Washington move on to target North Korea after resolving the Balkan crisis. A troublesome allyAnd it is understood that the Jiang administration had at least in theory agreed to provide some defense-related assistance to its neighbor. The future of Sino-North Korean relationship -- as well as peace on the Peninsula -- depends to some extent on whether the Hu administration will in a few years' time thrash out a new policy on China's increasingly troublesome ally. Given factors such as Beijing's improved ties with Washington and Seoul -- and Pyongyang's retrogressive tendencies -- more members of the outgoing so-called 'Fourth Generation' leadership are keen to revise ties with the Hermit Kingdom. Moreover, signs of a rupture in the comradely relationship have become obvious since 2001. The CCP has become impatient over Pyongyang's incessant demands for economic and technological aid. This is partly because Beijing has since the late 1990s adopted a new doctrine on foreign economic assistance. "The Chinese leadership demands something concrete in return for its aid, even to fellow socialist states," said an Asian diplomat. "North Korea, on the other hand, still wants the kind of unconditional help that Chairman Mao used to give it under the name of revolutionary solidarity." Moreover, Beijing is unhappy with the way Pyongyang has played the Russian card against China. Kim visited Moscow two times this year and the two countries conducted joint military exercises last month. Analysts say these irritants, coupled with Pyongyang's bid to set up economic zones to attract capital from dubious Chinese private businessmen -- as well as from Taiwan -- could goad a fast-modernizing China toward a more realistic and even-handed policy toward its Stalinist neighbor.
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