India government clings on in crisis

Members of India's Rapid Action Force march through the curfew imposed Dariyapur area of Ahmedabad, Gujarat

NEW DELHI, India -- Despite India's parliament adjourning in chaos and ongoing sectarian violence in the western state of Gujarat, the fragile ruling coalition appears likely to cling to power.

The make up of parliament and the reluctance of political parties to face a vote for a third time in five years is almost certain to ensure the government's shaky foundations do not crumble.

"There is no change of government coming about. Let us be clear about that," political analyst Prem Shankar Jha told Reuters news agency. "There is no threat to the government, period."

The government has been rocked by several crises since it came to power in October 1999, but none as dramatic as that currently swirling around the coalition -- led by the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) -- over its handling of the country's worst religious violence in a decade.

Three more people were killed on Wednesday in Muslim-Hindu clashes.

CNN NewsPass VIDEO Indian Prime Minister Vajpayee's support of Gujarat administrator Narendra Modi may cause a governmental crisis. CNN's Satinder Bindra reports Play video

CNN's Satinder Bindra reported that anger was not confined to the streets of western India, with parliament adjourning in disarray for the third consecutive day as opposition parties continue to demand a debate on the violence in Gujarat.

Many Indians feel that what is at stake is not just the future of the government but the country's secular credentials.

Political threat

One angry government ally, the southern Telugu Desam Party, has left the country guessing whether it will withdraw support to Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee's government after his BJP rejected its demand to fire the chief minister of Gujarat, where over 800 people were killed in the Hindu-Muslim clashes.

The 20-party coalition, made of disparate regional groups, has 311 seats in the 545-member lower house, 39 more than the minimum 272 required for a simple majority.

Apart from the Telugu Desam, which has 28 seats, the Trinamool Congress -- an eastern India party that has walked in and out of the 30-month-old coalition -- with nine seats, has also been sharply critical of the Gujarat tragedy.

But even if the Telugu Desam and the Trinamool withdrew support, the government is unlikely to fall.

Election fear

Political alliances in India are based on complex cocktails of caste, religion, regional and personal rivalries and the benefits of office in the world's largest democracy.

While the BJP has been a strident Hindu nationalist party many of its allies -- including the Telugu Desam -- stand for secularism, and have forced the BJP to give up some of its more divisive programmes to form the National Democratic Alliance coalition.

The main opposition Congress party -- with 112 seats -- would need to cobble together a similar alliance of nearly 20 groups and get the support of the Telugu Desam, the Trinamool and at least one other coalition member to oust Vajpayee.

Vajpayee is under pressure to dismiss Gujarat's chief minister for failing to halt recent sectarian violence

That, analysts say, is easier said than done. The Telugu Desam and the Congress are bitter rivals in the Telugu Desam's home state of Andhra Pradesh.

"Even if one or more of the allies pull out it doesn't mean they will join the opposition to vote against the government," Reuters reported Jha as saying. "They will remain neutral and the BJP will survive."

The Congress and the BJP seem well aware of that reality.

"Opposition parties are not interested in a test of strength but in only creating confusion and vitiating the atmosphere," Vajpayee told his party's lawmakers on Tuesday.

BJP spokesman Vijay Kumar Malhotra has repeatedly challenged the opposition to move a vote of confidence in parliament instead of stalling proceedings after it reconvened this week.

Shivraj Patil, deputy leader of the Congress in the lower house of parliament, said mid-term elections were not the solution to the latest political crisis.

"We are not afraid of elections but we are not creating conditions for elections either," Patil told Reuters. "We are not pining for elections. Suppose people give the same kind of fractured verdict we will be back in the same situation."