Report: Pakistan readied nukes

Clinton, right, and Sharif met during the 1999 Kashmir crisis.

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Pakistan was preparing a possible nuclear missile attack on India in 1999 during a military confrontation in the mountains of Kashmir, according to an article by a Clinton administration national security official.

Former National Security Council aide Bruce Riedel wrote the article for the University of Pennsylvania's Center for the Advanced Study of India. It describes an angry confrontation between President Clinton and Pakistan's then-Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif as tensions between the two South Asian rivals were at their height.

Clinton and Sharif met in Washington on July 4, 1999, as Indian forces were battling Muslim militants in Indian-controlled Kashmir.

"Clinton asked Sharif if he knew how advanced the threat of nuclear war really was," wrote Riedel, who attended the meeting as the NSC's special assistant for Near Eastern and South Asia affairs. "Did Sharif know his military was preparing their nuclear tipped missiles? Sharif seemed taken aback and said only that India was probably doing the same.

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"The president reminded Sharif how close the United States and Soviet Union had come to nuclear war in 1962 over Cuba. Did Sharif realize that if even one bomb was dropped ... Sharif finished his sentence and said it would be a catastrophe."

Riedel's article appears amid another military standoff between India and Pakistan. Both countries, which conducted tit-for-tat nuclear tests in 1998, massed troops along their border and in Kashmir after a December attack on India's parliament that New Delhi blamed on Pakistani-based militants.

And suspected Islamic militants opened fire on an army camp Tuesday in Indian-controlled Kashmir, killing more than 30 people and marring a new effort to ease the tension between nuclear foes India and Pakistan.

Clinton's White House successor, George W. Bush, condemned Tuesday's attack, saying it was "aimed at destroying opportunities for South Asia to build a future that is more stable, more peaceful and more prosperous."

Pakistani leader Pervez Musharraf -- who overthrew Sharif in October 1999 -- banned two groups that India blamed for the parliament attack. But India says it will not demobilize its forces until it sees proof that cross-border attacks have ceased.

Clinton: Crisis 'eerily like 1914'

Both India and Pakistan claim the whole of Kashmir and have fought two wars over the disputed Himalayan territory since independence in 1947.

In early 1999, Pakistani-backed Kashmiri militants and regular army units seized the initiative and made a military incursion across the U.N.-drawn Line of Control into Indian-controlled territory. In May, Indian troops discovered the intruders and launched an assault to push them out.

By late June, the situation had deteriorated to a dangerous level, Riedel said.

"Our intelligence assessments were pointing toward the danger of a full-scale war becoming a real possibility," he said.

Sharif urgently sought U.S. intervention to stop an Indian counterattack. But U.S. officials made it clear the only solution involved a quick and unconditional Pakistani withdrawal behind the Line of Control. Clinton warned that the Kashmir crisis "seemed to be eerily like 1914, armies mobilizing and disaster looming."

Mood shifts

After much back and forth, during which Sharif repeatedly refused to withdraw Pakistani troops without losing face, Riedel said Clinton became angry.

"He told Sharif that he had asked repeatedly for Pakistani help to bring Osama bin Laden to justice from Afghanistan. Sharif had promised often to do so but had done nothing," Riedel said.

Clinton warned Sharif that "his draft statement would also mention Pakistan's role in supporting terrorists in Afghanistan and India. Was that what Sharif wanted, Clinton asked?"

By the end of the day, Sharif agreed to pull back Pakistani troops. But by the following morning, Sharif's mood had shifted again as he worried about fallout back in Pakistan to his decision.

"The prime minister knew he had done the right thing for Pakistan and the world, but he was not sure his army would see it that way," Riedel said.

Upon his return to Pakistan, Sharif kept his word and ordered the army to pull back. A few months later, he sought to preempt a coup and tried to force Musharraf -- then the army chief of staff -- into exile. The military refused, and Musharraf took power.