Kashmir's hair trigger

Tight security is in place but the likelihood of further attacks during the election is high

NEW DELHI, India (CNN) -- Tuesday morning's attack on Hindus taking part in the annual pilgrimage to the sacred cave of Amarnath in Kashmir has once again demonstrated the dangerous position in that state.

The attack has revived the war of words between India and Pakistan, with India pointing the finger at Pakistan and that country rejecting the allegation "with contempt".

Moreover Kashmiri separatist militants have shown that they might be able to disrupt the election to be held in the Indian-administered area of the state next month.

In spite of the massive security surrounding the pilgrims on their way to the sacred cave, the separatists were able to fire on a camp killing at least nine people on the spot and injuring 50.

If the separatists do step up their activities the Indian army might well retaliate against Pakistan. The armies of the two nuclear nations are still eyeball-to-eyeball along their borders and along the line of control in Kashmir.

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In May the American and British Governments were so alarmed about the possibility of the standoff escalating to military action, perhaps even to a nuclear flare up, that they issued warnings to their citizens not to travel to either country and withdrew all but their essential diplomatic staff.

Tension was reduced when the American Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage secured a commitment from Pakistan's President, General Musharraf to end infiltration across Kashmir's line of control permanently and close training camps for separatist militants in his country.

India responded by reopening its skies to Pakistani airplanes and withdrawing its fleet stationed near the Pakistan coast.

But the armies were not withdrawn.

'Must do more'

Between them both sides have more than a million troops ranged along the frontline

Last month Britain and America lifted their travel warnings and sent high-powered visitors to the region to move the peace process forward.

But neither the British Foreign Secretary, Jack Straw, nor the American Secretary of State Colin Powell were able to obtain significant concessions from New Delhi or Islamabad -- no new Pakistani measures to prevent separatist attacks, no agreement by India to talk to Musharraf about Kashmir, and no troop withdrawals.

India meanwhile has been issuing conflicting statements about infiltration into the areas of Kashmir it administers.

At times it has indicated that in spite of General Musharraf's assurance there has been little or no reduction in the scale of infiltration at other times it has suggested that there are fewer separatist militants crossing the line of control or the border.

But one thing is constant, the Indian refrain "General Musharraf must do more before we will talk to him."

India has brought itself time with the international community by announcing an election to the Kashmir State Assembly to be held within weeks but this is not a risk-free policy.

The failure of a combined army, paramilitary, and police operation to protect the Amarnath pilgrims indicates how difficult it is going to be for India to ensure that campaigning and polling are not disturbed by the separatists.

Poll under threat

Despite an apparent easing of tensions the two nuclear neighbors remain eyeball-to-eyeball

They will do all they can to disrupt the election and with the best intentions in the world it will not be possible for General Musharraf to ensure there are no attacks.

India itself admits there are already a large number of separatists in the area of Kashmir it administers.

But if attacks do take place angry public opinion will put pressure on the Indian government to blame Musharraf and retaliate.

The election itself is likely to be flawed by the refusal of almost all Kashmiri parties except the ruling National Conference to take part.

So far the government has shown no willingness to offer the sort of moves towards autonomy which might persuade some of the other parties to put up candidates.

Although the Hurriyat, the major alliance of Kashmiri separatist political parties, may stop short of calling for a boycott of the election there is unlikely to be much enthusiasm for voting in the Kashmir valley with the option effectively limited to the ruling National Conference.

Turn-out fears

Fears that few votes will be cast in the valley of a low turn-out could well lead to clumsy attempts by the administration and the security forces to obtain a high turn-out -- there could be rigging and perhaps even efforts to force people to vote.

Although there are to be no official international observers there will be large numbers of foreign journalists and probably diplomats too reporting on the election.

Unless the election is manifestly free and fair and the turn out in the Kashmir Valley is high it will not serve to prove India's point that Kashmiris are happy with the present status quo.

Pakistan for its part will seize on any evidence it can find to discredit the election.

Even if it is accepted by the international community as valid and democratic Pakistan will not withdraw it's claim that the status of Kashmir is in dispute, and the international community will keep up the pressure for talks on the Kashmir question.

The Indian government, on the other hand, will still be unwilling to hold talks which imply admitting there is a dispute over Kashmir especially as the ruling coalition has to face elections in other states after Kashmir goes to the polls and a general election is likely next year.

So in the short run the election could heighten tension dangerously between India and Pakistan and in the long run it is difficult to see how it can solve the long-running dispute over that state.