Asia sweats on El Nino's return

Could it happen again? The Petronas Towers in Kuala Lumpur (top) under a haze from Indonesia's fires and Sydney's Opera House (bottom) cloaked in bushfire smog.

SINGAPORE -- The dreaded weather patterns associated with the so-called El Nino weather phenomenon could again wreak havoc in the Asia-Pacific region.

But climate forecasters in Singapore, expecting a "weak to moderate" El Nino, are hoping the drought and flooding extremes will be averted when it develops around the middle of this year.

A moderate El Nino would deliver widespread dry weather over the western part of the Pacific Ocean, including Southeast Asia with an increase in forest fires and smoke haze.

However, with a weak to moderate El Nino scientists are hopeful that the severe haze experienced in 1997-98 will not be repeated.

This year the odds of an El Nino weather event occurring in the tropical Pacific region were also double the normal level of risk, according to the Australia's Bureau of Meteorology.

Next to the seasons, El Nino is one of the most powerful forces driving global weather and is the name for a weather condition marked by rising ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean linked to warm air temperatures, increased rainfall, flooding, drought and wildfires.

If El Nino returns, it would hit the Asia-Pacific first and foremost with drier conditions in the sub-tropical Pacific and wetter weather further east and north in the coming three months.

Regional fears

Malaysia hopes heavy rain forecasts for March will help douse some of the forest fires currently ablaze, however drier El Nino conditions would exacerbate smoke haze in the region.

In 1997-98 the fires in Indonesia raged throughout the 9-11 month dry period, devastating large tracts of tropical bush.

Haze has been a regional concern since Indonesia drew harsh criticism from its neighbors in 1997 for its crude slash-and-burn agricultural production methods.

The Philippines was forced to import about two million tonnes of rice in 1998 due to damage wrought by drought at the start of that year and flooding in the later part connected to the weather phenomenon.

This year agriculture officials have said that less rain in the fourth quarter, potentially brought on by El Nino could actually make harvesting the local rice crop easier.

However industry executives told Reuters news agency that the effects to other crops like corn and coconuts would only be felt in 2003.

The Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has already warned rice farmers about the risk of drought this year.

Thaksin in a radio address said officials have been told to ensure water reservoirs are always full so as to cope with expected droughts.

50-50 chance

Australia's National Climate Center has already announced in its three-month seasonal climate outlook that its scientists were suggesting odds of around 50-50 that an El Nino might develop this year.

However, changes could occur quickly during the Australian autumn, from March to May, the usual transition period for El Nino events, the center told Reuters.

Australia's autumn rainfall odds showed no big swing toward wet or dry conditions and that beyond autumn there is only speculation about a possible El Nino event.

"Temperatures have increased sharply below the surface of the western and central equatorial Pacific (ocean) during the past few months. Depending on other triggers, this warming trend may spread to the surface and lead to an El Nino event," the center said.

According to the center the situation still remains far from certain.

If El Nino does return it could be politically significant with the coming of the Rio+10 conference in August.

It is the second high profile Earth Summit to be convened in Johannesburg, South Africa, after the first one 10 years ago in Rio De Janeiro.

Fear of 1997

The last El Nino took place in 1997-98 and was considered extremely severe when it caused withering drought in one country and rampant flooding in another.

In South Asia it was said to have caused delayed monsoons in India and severe flooding in Bangladesh.

Other phenomena observed with El Nino's appearance include forest fires in Indonesia.

These fires created a cloud of smoke that choked 20 million and affected Southeast Asian cities from Kuala Lumpur to Singapore.

In Australia it caused drought and bush fires as well as affecting areas of South China.

New Zealand suffered droughts on the east coasts of both the main North and South Islands, leading to lost production in a country heavily dependent on agricultural commodity exports.

"El Nino" -- Spanish for the Christ child -- was so named by Peruvian fishermen who noticed its greatest effects on the Pacific Ocean tended to occur around Christmas.

Climate historians have speculated that many significant events are linked to El Nino.

The U.S. "Dust Bowl" of the 1930's, for example, coincided with an unusually long lapse between El Nino events.