Ex-premier leading Ukraine polls

Former Ukraine prime minister Viktor Yushchenko leads in opinion polls

KIEV, Ukraine (TOL) -- Ukraine's upcoming elections should go some way to answering whether the country will open up to the West -- or remain a gray zone between Russia and the rest of Europe.

The March 31 vote in one of Europe's largest and poorest countries should also help answer whether its half-hearted efforts at reform will gain a second wind.

The answers hinge more on President Leonid Kuchma, who appoints and dismisses governments, than on the elections. But Kuchma is due to step down in 2004, and his successor is likely to come from among the ranks of the Rada, or parliament, elected at month's end.

Half the seats will be decided on the basis of proportional representation. The other half will be decided on a first-past-the-post basis in individual constituencies.

CNN.com Europe More news  from our European edition

Ukraine's political system is young, and the electorate's allegiances are unstable. Parties, which were first allowed to enter general elections in 1998, are weak and numerous. More than 33 parties and coalitions have registered for the elections, making it almost impossible for laymen to distinguish among them.

All this gives populists with attractive slogans and recognizable names a chance. Some new political groups may emerge as dark horses through proportional representation, and some independents and mavericks are likely to win seats.

However, there are two clear front-runners with very different ideologies, and a third important group that is closely associated with Kuchma.

The leader in the race -- regularly scoring 20 to 25 percent in nationwide opinion polls -- is Viktor Yushchenko, a former prime minister and, before that, governor of Ukraine's central bank.

Yushchenko's relatively liberal, reform-minded government was brought down by a combination of powerful businessmen, or oligarchs, and the Communists, who had dominated parliament through the 1990s. The elections are essentially a re-run of this battle.

President Kuchma appoints governments, but he is due to step down in 2004

Yushchenko's real power base is in the nationalist west and the capital Kiev. But he has also managed to bring in center-ground parties with strongholds in the key Russian-populated, heavily industrialized regions in the east.

The result is that Yushchenko's Our Ukraine is a motley collection of groups knitted together only by Yushchenko's personal popularity.

His secret is a quality that would seem to make him unbeatable: a reputation for honesty in a country notorious for corruption. His dedication to market principles and democracy also have made him the darling of the West. Yushchenko is rumored to have presidential ambitions, but if he does he is keeping them to himself.

Yushchenko's ideological adversaries, the Communists, are also his closest challengers. They appear weaker than they were in the last elections four years ago, and their backward-looking, largely unreformed Leninist vision and their aging support base suggest it will become weaker still.

But for now they are among the election favorites and, critically, are strong where Our Ukraine is weak -- in the east, where the Communists' leader, Petro Symonenko, comes from.

The Communists want to unite with Russia and Belarus, steer clear of Western democracies and sever all ties with international financial organizations. That, and their ideological baggage, could pose a threat to Ukraine's nascent democracy.

The same holds true of the third key force in the elections -- the powerful business elite, or the "parties of power" as they are commonly known. They claim to support the rule of law, democracy, pro-European policies and market reforms, but words and actions frequently differ.

Their stance has become increasing pro-Moscow in recent months, distancing the prospects of closer integration with the European Union. And they were pivotal in the removal of Yushchenko, who headed the pro-market government in Ukraine's history.

Among their campaign techniques: distributing free food in an effort to sway voters, giving "free advice" to enterprise directors and regional governors about who to vote for, putting pressure on rival candidates, and mass coercion of employees.

The results have occasionally been startling. One party's membership soared from 30,000 last March to half a million by the end of the year.

However, these efforts have not made them a coherent political force. Conflicting clan interests and individual ambitions have prevented the ruling elite from unifying.

Former deputy premier Yulia Tymoshenko leads the bloc that bears her name

Many of them will fall at the 4 percent hurdle required to win seats in parliament. Indeed, two groups are campaigning almost exclusively on an anti-elite platform.

These include the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc, named after and headed by Yushchenko's one-time deputy prime minister. Tymoshenko, who was injured in a car crash in February that some believe was not accidental, claims that pro-presidential groups have "zero percent" support but will ultimately muster 10 to 12 percent "owing to compulsion and force."

Kuchma has countered similar accusations.

"I more than anyone am interested in an absolutely free election," Kuchma told U.S. Undersecretary of State for Global Affairs Paula Dobriansky in February.

However, the campaign has been marred by violence and mutual accusations, and the Council of Europe's monitor has been heavily critical. Domestic watchdogs already say the elections have not been free or fair, and one -- the Committee of Voters -- has openly pinned the lion's share of the violations on the pro-presidential parties.

Oleg Varfolomeyev is a journalist based in Kiev and is a regular contributor to Transitions Online.