Islamist threat to Ecevit's rule

Pro-Islamist Tayyip Erdogan is forecast to win twice as many votes as Ecevit

ANKARA, Turkey (CNN) -- Disillusionment with Turkey's political establishment could thrust a controversial Islamic party and its banned leader into power.

Months of political wrangling and alleged economic mismanagement has seen support for the government of Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit crumble.

The stock markets have lost 40 percent of their value and the currency, the lira, has tumbled in value leading the country to become reliant on a $16 billion International Monetary Fund loan.

The ailing 77-year-old prime minister faces electoral wipe-out in early elections forced upon him after his government saw its absolute majority disappear with the resignation of about 60 politicians.

A recently formed party, 'New Turkey,' led by the former Foreign Minister Ismail Cem will pose a challenge to Ecevit's Democratic Left party.

But Ecevit also fears that early elections, earmarked for November 3, 2002, could herald the entry of Islamist and nationalist parties.

"Islamic and separatist movements are waiting to step in if the centrist party falls."

Voters have shown signs of turning towards a pro-Islamic party whose leader has been jailed and who is currently serving a political ban.

Recip Tayyip Erdogan, a former mayor of Istanbul, was convicted in 1998 for reciting a pro-Islamic poem which authorities said incited religious hatred.

The 50-year-old poem, which is taught in many Turkish schools, compares the minarets of mosques to bayonets.

Now Erdogan's party, Justice and Development, which is mainly supported by Muslims, is on the verge of power.

Pollsters predict the Justice and Development party will win at least 20 percent of the vote compared to just 10 percent for each of the coalition parties -- not even enough to secure their presence in parliament.

Despite Turkey being predominantly Muslim -- 99 percent of the population are Muslim -- Erdogan has deliberately played down the religious credentials of his party.

He says he has become more moderate.

"I'm not the same person I was 10 years ago," he adds.

He also expects the political ban to be lifted. Amnesty International believes the sentence is in clear breach of the European Human Rights Convention.

Working man appeal

But it is not just Muslims who are attracted to the Justice and Development party. The working-class also find its brand of "conservative democratic" politics attractive.

One worker said: "I've been working for 17 years and Erdogan is my only hope. When he was mayor he protected the poor and treated city workers well."

Another reason why the Justice and Development party wants to avoid promoting its religious credentials in a secular society is the ever looming presence of the military in Turkish politics.

The army fiercely guards the country's secular identity and managed to force the resignation of Turkey's former Islamist prime minister five years ago.

Four Islamist political parties have since been shut down by Turkish courts.

Turkey's political leaders are fond of saying that the diversity of their people is a source of strength. The challenge is finding a way not to alienate the huge bloc of voters on the edges.

-- CNN Ankara's correspondent Jane Arraf contributed to this article.