Floods, Iraq enliven German poll

In their historic debate, Schroeder (right) and Stoiber set out clear campaign themes

BERLIN, Germany (CNN) -- By early August, the German election looked like it was over before it had begun.

Conservative challenger Edmund Stoiber, the Bavarian state premier, was leading by such a large margin in opinion surveys that pollsters said Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder couldn't close the gap.

With German jobless numbers continuing to rise, the Social Democratic incumbent was on the defensive. He looked sure to be the first German chancellor since World War II to fail to win a second term.

And Stoiber seemed set to become the first Bavarian to cross the "white sausage line" to sit in the chancellor's chair.

EXTRA INFORMATION In-depth: Germany Decides 2002     QUICKVOTE Who will be Germany's next chancellor? Incumbent Gerhard Schroeder Challenger Edmund Stoiber View Results

Panicked into opening his campaign three weeks early -- and headlining that he would keep Germany out of any U.S. attack on Iraq -- Schroeder looked like a man in desperate search of a diversion.

But then came a real diversion: Devastating floods that hit Germany along with much of central and eastern Europe.

The chancellor, at ease in boots and a jacket, was back in the news bulletins, suddenly able to build on a mood of national solidarity.

"It has made a decisive difference because of the seen competence of the Chancellor, to react quickly and with a kind of empathy to the people," says Hajo Funke, a professor at Berlin Free University.

Stoiber took a few days to break his holiday and get involved.

"He wasn't there too much," says Funke. "He hasn't had the kind of empathy you need to reach the people."

So by the time the two met in Germany's first live TV confrontation between a chancellor and his challenger, the gap in the opinion polls had narrowed to a single percentage point.

No knockout blows were landed in the TV duel, but the themes were clear. An assured chancellor was asking for more time to finish the job.

"We have proven with the reforms that we introduced in the last four years that we deserve the confidence of the voters," Schroeder said.

Stoiber, an improved TV performer, was on the attack, flourishing statistics.

"Let's stick to the facts," Stoiber said. "Four years ago he promised to cut unemployment significantly. He said there would not be more than 3.5 million unemployed. He added he wouldn't deserve to be elected if he didn't achieve that."

Schroeder and his Social Democratic Party, with the floods still very much in mind, play up the social solidarity themes still valued by many German voters. They've gambled by postponing tax cuts to pay for the damage.

Stoiber and his Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union alliance say Schroeder greets every crisis with more taxes. "Let's look at the facts" is their campaign theme.

With some 40 percent of German voters yet to make up their minds, there's plenty for them both to still play for.

In their different ways, the floods, the question of how to pay for the damage and the concern over any war in Iraq have brought a previously predictable election to life.

The question is whether the support for Schroeder in the polls will remain -- or whether it will recede along with the floodwaters as German voters switch their attention back to the economy.