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Q&A: Irish vote on EU future
DUBLIN, Republic of Ireland (CNN) -- Irish voters go to the polls on Saturday for a second time to decide whether to approve the Nice Treaty, which paves the way for European Union expansion. CNN European Political Editor Robin Oakley explains what the vote means. Q: How close is the result likely to be? A: That is likely to depend on turnout. In the first referendum in June 2001, the Fianna Fail government led by Bertie Ahern was complacent, certain that Ireland as a country -- which had done well out of the EU and which had long been known as one of the most EU-friendly nations -- would vote "yes." Opinion polls backed that view. But on a turnout of less than 35 percent, the Nice Treaty was rejected by 54 percent to 46 percent. Those opposed to the treaty showed a greater readiness to go out and use their vote. This time the government has poured money into publicising the vote, and the other "yes" campaigners -- who include the main opposition parties Fine Gael and Labour, business associations, trade unions and farming organisations -- have made much more effort to explain what the Nice Treaty is about. The "yes" campaigners have seen their efforts rewarded with a lead in the opinion polls, but around a third of Irish electors were still undecided in the last week, and therefore turnout will be crucial. Q: What exactly is the Nice Treaty? What does it do? A: Essentially it makes the constitutional changes required in the EU to enable it to expand from 15 nations to 25 without creating total gridlock on all key decisions. That involves changes to the European Commission, the European Council and the European Parliament. The national allocations of MEPs in the European Parliament are being changed, and so are the numbers of European Commissioners. Larger nations which currently have more than one commissioner will have to be content with only one in future. In the council, the main decision-making body of the EU, there is to be a change in the voting weights of member nations. Also, about 30 percent more subjects than before are to be decided by "qualified majority voting." That means fewer subjects on which individual nations can exercise their national veto. The Nice Treaty also agrees the principle of "enhanced co-operation," allowing groups of nations to fast track projects without waiting for the agreement of the slowest ship in the EU convoy.
Q: Why did the "no" campaigners win so much support last time? A: Nobody is quite certain what the determining issues were. Certainly there was general ignorance about what the Nice Treaty was, and the Irish government was sharply criticised for doing little to explain it. Factors which appeared to have influenced the "no" vote included fears that Ireland would lose its much-prized military neutrality and worries that a two-tier Europe was being created which would see Ireland relegated to the second division. In a more generalised sense there were worries over increased immigration and suspicions in the agricultural community that the arrival in the EU of poorer countries from Eastern Europe would mean a smaller slice of the subsidy cake for Ireland. The Irish government has sought to counter worries about neutrality by securing a declaration from the EU heads of government meeting in Seville in June that nothing in the Nice Treaty in any way compromises Irish neutrality, and it has a subsidiary question in this referendum to ensure that the Irish parliament would have to sanction any involvement by Irish forces. Q: Why is Ireland the only EU country putting the Nice Treaty to the vote? A: All other EU countries leave the ratification of treaties to their national parliaments. The Irish constitution provides that treaties have to be subjected to a direct vote by the people in a referendum. In this case it has meant that a development crucial to some 500 million people can be determined by around 500,000. Ireland has less than 1 percent of the EU population, and the 2001 referendum in Ireland saw the treaty rejected by 529,578 votes to 453,461.
Q: What happens if Ireland votes "no" again? A: There is considerable argument about that, and the debate has been coloured by people seeking to influence the outcome of the Irish vote. Other countries have been reluctant to interfere in a matter of internal politics. But they have sought to increase the moral pressure on the Irish people by suggesting that a "no" vote could torpedo the whole process of enlargement. Certainly it would delay it, because without the Nice Treaty there would be no agreement to re-work the EU institutions to cope with an enlarged Europe. The danger of delay is that some applicant countries are becoming steadily more Euro-sceptic as the admission process drags out. Some existing members are finding their populations steadily more fearful that enlargement would hit employment prospects in their own countries, as well as the amount of EU subsidies which some of them enjoy. The climate for EU enlargement is worsening. Anders Fogh Rasmussen, the Danish prime minister whose country holds the rotating EU presidency, has declared that a "no" vote would be "an unprecedented crisis," and EU officials insist there is no "Plan B." In practice there would have to be. One suggestion is that the 10 applicants could be admitted and some changes made in specific admission treaties for each one. But that would still leave the question of a more deep-seated reform of the EU institutions, and after the four days wrangling in Nice which produced the last treaty few would relish beginning that all over again. Rejection by Ireland of the Nice Treaty would not in itself stop the enlargement process. It would be a question of the EU finding the political will to do things in a different way. The Irish Green Party and Sinn Fein, who are leading the "no" campaign, both insist that they are not against the enlargement of Europe, only against what they see as the creation of a two-tier Europe in the process. Q: Can the Irish government keep putting it to the vote until they get the result they want?
A: In theory, yes. In practice, no. Ministers have made it clear that this is the final vote on the Nice Treaty. There is already some voter resistance to this second vote on Nice on the grounds that it is a negation of democracy when the Irish electorate has already pronounced. "Yes" campaigners say it is not so unusual and that questions on voting systems, divorce and abortion have been put to Irish voters more than once in referendums. But there were significant changes in the question being asked on those issues. Q: Has holding a second referendum affected the standing of Prime Minister Bertie Ahern? A: Yes, but not as much as Ahern's standing might affect the referendum. There is some voter resistance to a government which is repeating a question to the electors because it did not like the first answer it was given. But there is acknowledgment too that few people knew what the issues were last time around. The real problem for Ahern and his government is that people don't always answer the question in a referendum but treat it as a vote on the popularity of the person asking the question. Ahern's government, re-elected only a few months ago, has since become unpopular over spending cuts, corruption cases and controversy over a national stadium project which has become known as the "Bertie Bowl." His political standing has declined considerably, although it is too early to tell if is a temporary or permanent decline. Q: Will there be any lasting effects of the referendum on Ireland? A: That probably depends on the result. Irish ministers acknowledge they would be short of friends in the EU for a while and unlikely to do as well in the next carve-up of funds if the country frustrates the union's other 14 members -- especially after Ireland has gained some $1 billion a year from EU membership over the past three decades and seen its GDP transformed from 60 percent of the European average to 121 percent. Some suggest that if Ireland were perceived as a less EU-friendly country, it might suffer too in terms of inward investment from non-EU companies. Q: What are the lessons for the EU in all of this? A: To make things less complicated. The Nice Treaty, hammered out behind closed doors in the French resort over four days and nights, is a dog's breakfast of trade-offs which is virtually unintelligible to all but the most avid of EU watchers. If the voters in many other countries had been given the same opportunity as Irish electors, they too might well have rejected it.
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The Nice Treaty ... is a dog’s breakfast of trade-offs
