Israeli downplays nuclear threat with Iraq

Ret. Brig. Gen. Shlomo Brom

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TEL AVIV, Israel (CNN) -- A U.S. military analyst reportedly has told Congress that if Iraq attacks Israel with nonconventional weapons, causing massive civilian deaths, the Israelis could respond with a nuclear weapon.

The Israeli options were outlined Thursday in the Israeli newspaper Ha'aretz, which also reported the comments of U.S. military analyst Anthony Cordesman.

Shlomo Brom, a retired Israeli brigadier general, believes the possibility has been exaggerated.

BROM: I think it's only the personal opinion of my good friend Tony Cordesman. I don't think that the scenario that he describes is a probable one, so I do not believe that Israel would have to face this test because, as far as I know, the number of missiles equipped with nonconventional warheads, whether chemical or biological, that the Iraqis have is a small one, and all Israeli capabilities to intercept and shoot down these missiles are much better than they used to be in the Gulf War in '91.

The security community in Israel, the defense community, has to take precautions for any eventuality, and assuming that Saddam [Hussein] has these warheads, and we do not have definite indications that he doesn't have them, we have to take into account that he will try to launch some of these warheads at Israel, and a few may hit Israel. But, I do not think that the scope of the damage will be such that Israel will have to think about reactions for doomsday scenarios.

I don't think there will be massive civilian casualties, because when you combine the effect of the missile defense that we have, and the passive precautions, the masks and the sealed rooms, and the preparedness for medical treatment, et cetera, this scenario is of a very low probability, and therefore, I don't think that there is any reason to discuss such speculative scenarios.

I think that [Cordesman] is overreacting. Well, I don't know whether Israel has nuclear weapons or not. It is assumed everywhere that they have, and it is assumed, also, that Israel will use them when it will face an existing threat. The question whether a certain situation is an existing threat or not could be examined only when it happens.