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Hurricane! When the big one hits - Discussion/Activities
September 20, 2002
Web posted at: 1:46 PM EDT (1746 GMT)
Pre-Viewing Discussion
Before showing students Hurricane! When the Big One Hits, you may want to use textbooks and Web sites to provide students with a background on how hurricanes develop, the various stages of hurricanes and the areas of the United States that are primarily affected by hurricanes. Use the following questions to determine students' prior knowledge and focus their viewing:
Do you live in an area that can be impacted by a hurricane? What areas of the United States are primarily affected by hurricanes? Have you ever experienced a hurricane? If so, describe your experience.
What are the potential consequences if a hurricane makes landfall?
Are you aware of a plan for your family, your school or your community in case there is a hurricane? If so, what is the plan?
How can scientists and emergency managers prepare for and minimize damage and loss of life during a hurricane? What science, technology and thought processes go into the decisions they make?
Is it possible to prevent a major catastrophe before "The Big One" hits?
Segment Summaries and Discussion Questions
Segment One: They're Coming!
Warning: Please preview. The introduction ends with a sign that reads, "Damn You Andrew." Segment One includes images of dead bodies from Hurricane Mitch in 1999.
Many scientists say that the increased number of hurricanes is caused by periodic climate shifts, including a warming of the ocean by a mere half-degree. Chris Landsea, a NOAA scientist, says that a half-degree increase in temperature translates into more energy for a hurricane. If a Category 5 hurricane with winds of 155 mph (258 km/h) hits the U.S. coast, the damage could be enormous, as the value of U.S. coastal property in the hurricane belt is at least $6.4 trillion. The National Hurricane Center also estimates that 85 percent of the people in potential danger areas have never experienced a major storm.
According to many scientists, what is the reason for the increase in hurricanes?
Explain Chris Landsea's analogy of a hurricane to a heat engine.
What "tools of the trade" do the forecasters use to make their predictions about hurricanes? What information can forecasters currently tell us about hurricanes? What two critical questions are they unable to answer with confidence? Why is this so problematic?
What does it mean when scientists say that "forecasting is an inexact science"?
If forecasts for hurricanes have improved over the past 20 years, then why do you think property loss and casualty situations are getting worse?
Segment Two: Evacuation
The coastal building boom has dramatically increased the population of U.S. coastal counties -- twice as many people now than in 1950. So if a big hurricane strikes, ordering a full evacuation could cause a massive traffic jam. This already happened in 1999, when Hurricane Floyd threatened the Atlantic coast. In the Florida Keys, the situation is even worse because only two roads lead to safety. What local emergency managers fear most is a massive storm surge -- a wall of water driven inland by a hurricane's winds that would threaten people caught in gridlock.
What challenges does Billy Wagner, Emergency Manager for the Florida Keys, face in doing his job? What larger considerations must he keep in mind when deciding whether or not to order an evacuation?
What is a storm surge?
What is the average error for tracking hurricanes?
Why do emergency managers tend to over-evacuate? What are the potential ramifications for doing so?
Why is mass evacuation not as viable an option as it was a generation ago? What are some alternatives to evacuation?
If you lived in a coastal property, what thought process would you go through prior to evacuating?
Segment Three: Shelters
When a hurricane hits, many residents take refuge in shelters selected by local emergency managers but staffed by volunteers from the American Red Cross. But the Red Cross says it will not staff shelters that fail its strict safety standards. Throughout the hurricane belt, schools are typically used as shelters. But emergency managers are discovering that many of the schools they relied on may not be as safe as they thought. So now there's a shelter deficit: too many people and not enough shelters.
Why do you think schools have traditionally been used as shelters? Why is this tradition now being re-examined?
The American Red Cross has established new, strict safety standards. According to the program, what are some of those standards? What additional standards do you think might be included? (Contact your local Red Cross to obtain a full listing.)
What challenges do the new standards pose for emergency managers and residents in hurricane-prone areas? What do you think are some possible solutions to these challenges?
If you were Michele Baker, emergency manager for Pasco County, what would you do to protect your residents?
Segment Four: New Orleans
New Orleans is one of the worst places in the country to be in if a major hurricane hits. It is below sea level and is surrounded by water on three sides: the Gulf of Mexico, the Mississippi River, and Lake Pontchartrain. A mass evacuation is the best defense if a major storm threatens the city. But many people may not or cannot leave. "We're really talking about potential catastrophe," says local emergency manager Walter Maestri, who says the death toll could be more than 20,000. "And one day it's coming. We don't know when, we don't know where, we don't know how. But it's coming."
Why is New Orleans one of the worst places in the country to be if a major hurricane hits? Why would evacuation be the best defense against a major hurricane?
What measures has the Army Corps of Engineers taken to try to protect New Orleans? What other proposals are on the table for protecting the city's residents?
How does the Army Corps of Engineers measure the benefits of building a floodwall around 1/3 of New Orleans? According to Al Naomi, an engineer with the Army Corps of Engineers, what are the limitations to applying a cost/benefit analysis to building this floodwall? What equation do you think the Army Corps should use when deciding whether or not the benefits derived from building a floodwall outweigh the costs? What economic value would you place on a human life?
Segment Five: Project Storm Fury
Warning: Please preview. This segment includes images of dead bodies from the 1935 Florida Keys hurricane (seen just following "Coming Up Next").
In 1961, NOAA scientists attempted to modify the weather that produces hurricanes. In an experiment called Project Storm Fury, researchers seeded clouds in hurricanes with silver iodide to force precipitation and slow the hurricane's spinning winds. Initially, it appeared to work, although researchers could never prove whether the results stemmed from the cloud seeding or from natural events. But since the program's demise in 1983, weather modification research has essentially come to a halt.
What was Project Storm Fury? When did it begin? How did Storm Fury scientists propose they could "slow down" a hurricane? How did the scientists use their knowledge of how a hurricane forms and travels to explain how Project Storm Fury could work?
From which countries did Project Storm Fury face criticism? Why?
How was the science of Storm Fury challenged?
What issues and concerns eventually led to the end of Project Storm Fury in 1983? Why, 20 years later, might Project Storm Fury resume?
Do you think the government should fund weather modification research projects like Storm Fury? Why or why not?
Segment Six: Research Funds are in Question
Warning: Please preview. This segment includes images of dead bodies from the 1935 Florida Keys hurricane.
Major hurricanes, although relatively rare, cause 80 percent of hurricane damage. But forecasters cannot predict which storm will become the monster. Many scientists say forecasts will improve when mathematical model computer programs are better. But money for that effort has been hard to find. Some scientists say that more research funding will be forthcoming only when the country suffers a massive catastrophe. "Then money will be thrown at the problem," said Bill Gray, a professor at Colorado State University's Department of Atmospheric Sciences.
What does Hugh Willoughby, Director of the NOAA Hurricane Research Division, mean when he says that "science is not there to handle these situations"? What does he predict will be the cause of the next catastrophe?
What is "rapid intensification"? Why do you think researchers have struggled to secure funds for research to study this phenomenon?
According to the program, why does earthquake research get seven times as much federal money as hurricanes do?
What advice does Max Mayfield, Director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami, have for residents in hurricane-prone areas?
Why do you think that 50% of people living where hurricanes are most likely to hit have neither a home disaster supply kit, nor a plan for evacuation? Is this number shocking to you? Why or why not? Do you think it is possible to decrease this percentage? If so, how? If not, why not?
Activity Suggestions
A. If your students live in an area that is vulnerable to hurricanes, try one of the following activities:
1. Rate Your Community's Hurricane Plan
Ask your students: How would our community cope in the event of a major hurricane? To answer this question, have students interview various community officials to gather information on their community's hurricane preparedness plan and create a report card that rates the plan.
Divide students into small groups and have each group investigate one of the following areas of hurricane preparedness: Shelters, Evacuation, Communication or Awareness. To guide students' research, assign each group one of the following sets of questions and directives:
Shelters—Where are the shelters? Do the shelters meet the new Red Cross standards? If not, are there plans to improve the facilities? Are there enough shelters to meet the needs of the community? Can residents access the shelters? You will need to secure a list of shelters currently available to residents. Contact the local Red Cross to get a list of their Standards for Hurricane Evacuation Shelter Selection. Determine which of the shelters currently available meet current standards.
Evacuation—What is the evacuation plan? Are there alternate routes? What is the potential for gridlock? What happens if residents are unwilling to evacuate? Is evacuation the best defense against a hurricane? Contact the Emergency Management Coordinator and other city officials to get answers to these questions.
Communication—How will community members be informed of hurricane warnings and watches? How will they know if they are to go to a shelter or evacuate? Where can residents go to find out this information? Contact the public information officer, local media outlets (i.e. television and radio stations, newspaper publishers, etc.) and other emergency management services to find out the current plan for informing the public about what to do to prepare for and deal with the aftermath of a hurricane.
Individual Family Home Disaster Supply Kits and Community Awareness—How many families in your community are equipped with a home disaster supply kit? Do residents know how to protect their home in the case of a hurricane? Are community members aware of hurricane procedures? Do they know whom to contact and where to go following a hurricane? Interview community members to get feedback on their familiarity with preventive measures and hurricane procedures.
Note: Other community officials that students may want to contact include: Mayor or City Administrator, City Manager, Chief of Police, Fire Chief, City Building Code Inspector, Coordinator of Roads and Transportation, Director of Public Health, Electric Company Emergency Officer, Telephone Company Emergency Coordinator, or local Red Cross workers.
After each group collects its data, have group members rate their category (Shelters, Evacuation, Communication, Awareness) on a scale of 1 to 5, 5 being excellent, 1 being unacceptable. Then, compile the groups' data and ask students to assess their community's current hurricane plan and make recommendations for how to improve the plan. Have students discuss each recommendation, weighing the costs associated with each one against its potential benefits. Have the class develop a multimedia presentation or brochure to be presented at a PTA or City Council meeting detailing their plans for improving their community's hurricane preparedness plan.
Extension: Try playing out a hurricane scenario with your students. Tell them that there is a Hurricane Watch for your community and it looks like the hurricane is showing signs of strengthening. Armed with the knowledge about the community's plan, students can determine what will or should happen over the course of the next 36 hours.
2. Create a Home Disaster Supply Kit
According to Hurricane! When the Big One Hits, a Red Cross poll found that 50% of people living where hurricanes are most likely to hit, have neither a home disaster supply kit, nor a plan for evacuation. Brainstorm as a class a list of items that should be included in a home disaster supply kit. Have students search the Web sites listed below for suggestions on what to include. (Note: The Red Cross has a great resource at Family Disaster Planning.) Once students have created their individual kits, they can give presentations to other classrooms on what goes in a kit and on the importance of having a home disaster supply kit.
B. The following activity is appropriate for all students, regardless of where they live.
Conduct a Cost/Benefit Analysis
This CNN Presents program addresses several "ingredients" that could result in a catastrophe the next time a major hurricane does hit the U.S. Have students generate a list of these "ingredients." Their lists could include:
ignoring evacuation orders;
over-evacuation;
insufficient transportation network;
insufficient forecasting models;
lack of approved emergency shelters;
coastal population explosion;
lack of individual preparation and awareness;
lack of funding for preventive structures;
lack of funding for research.
Write this list on the board. Divide the class into groups. Direct students within each group to discuss potential solutions for each "ingredient." Then, have them choose 2 or 3 of these ingredients that they feel can be addressed in the most cost effective way with the greatest likelihood of benefits. Students will need to consider the short-term and long-term costs and benefits. As they present their plans to class members, they should justify their decisions.
Extension: Have students discuss ways that average citizens could address and raise public awareness about each of these concerns. Strategies may include petitioning media outlets for public service campaigns to educate the public and lobbying government officials for help. Have each group share its strategies and discuss the role of citizens and their governments (local and federal) in hurricane preparedness.
C. Additional Activities:
If your students live in a region that is vulnerable to hurricanes, pair up with a school in a region that is vulnerable to another type of natural disaster such as fires, floods, tornadoes, or earthquakes—or vice versa. Through Internet or mail correspondence, students can write to each other about how each community is affected by natural disasters, and how residents prepare for and deal with the impact of that hazard.
Have students investigate government funding for research projects on a variety of natural disasters. Which disasters receive the most funding? The least funding? What do you think are some reasons for these allocations? Students can write a grant to get funding for research and technology development for a specific natural hazard.
Using the Red Cross safety standards for safe shelters, students can design a hurricane-proof structure.
Visit your local National Weather Service and have students find out more about the tools meteorologists use to forecast the severity and pattern of hurricanes.
Challenge students to role-play as television meteorologists and report on the various stages of a hurricane currently moving through your area.
Have students diagram the various stages of a hurricane.
Using the Web sites listed below, students can track a current storm and make predictions for landfall.
Invite your Emergency Management Coordinator to speak to your classroom about the natural disaster challenges facing your community.
Design a new piece of technology to aid scientists in better predicting hurricane strength and landfall.
Keywords
Hurricane
Hurricane Season
Hurricane Watch
Hurricane Warning
Hurricane Hunters
Eye of the Storm
Storm Surge
Tropical Storm
Project Storm Fury
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