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CNN PRESENTS

CNN Presents: America Votes 2004: New Hampshire Primary

Aired January 25, 2004 - 20:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

ANNOUNCER: This is a CNN PRESENTS special report -- "America Votes 2004: The New Hampshire Primary."
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIPS)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: They're going to go nuts here.

SEN. JOHN KERRY, DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Iowa, I love you.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: A surprise in Iowa scrambles the race in New Hampshire and ratchets up the pressure on the one-time front runner.

Can the governor of Vermont hit the right note?

GOV. JOHN DEAN, DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: And the home of the brave.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Or will he be flattened by the Iowa bounce?

And what about the former general, the one who skipped Iowa altogether? He sounds ready to rumble.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Are you going to take the offensive?

GEN. WESLEY CLARK, DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Of course, I am. I'll beat the (BLEEP) out of them. But I hope that's not on ...

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Good for you.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Also ahead, a political feast for the undecided voter. Judy Woodruff finds out what's moving some of those late decisions.

And just how did a tiny, online organization provide the jet fuel that helped power the Dean campaign's early success?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: They're pioneering a new form of political organization.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: But, can support on the Internet translate into votes on election day? Lauren Brownstein (ph) investigates.

And finally, what about that Dean howl? Will it be his defining moment? All ahead on this special edition of CNN PRESENTS -- "America Votes 2004: The New Hampshire Primary."

Now, from Manchester, New Hampshire, here's Aaron Brown.

(END VIDEO CLIPS)

AARON BROWN, HOST, CNN PRESENTS, MANCHESTER, NEW HAMPSHIRE: And good evening again from New Hampshire. The characters in this drama are the same, but a week out of Iowa, most everything else seems different.

This week in New Hampshire has seen two main story lines -- lots of little stories, but two big ones.

Can John Kerry build on his Iowa comeback, his strong and stunning win there? And can Howard Dean rebuild after his Iowa disaster -- rebuild an image which took a beating on caucus night and throughout the week?

We can offer a clear answer to the first and a partial answer -- but only that -- to the second.

Tonight, Senator John Kerry holds a commanding lead in the latest CNN tracking poll. But Howard Dean has stopped sliding. Now, stop sliding is what you call putting the best face on bad news. But if you're in the Dean camp, it certainly offers hope.

Farther back, there is essentially a three-way statistical dead heat for third place, a position that could mean political survival for that group.

We have much to do in the hour ahead, including, we expect a conversation with Governor Dean. But first a quick look at the candidates -- where they are, what they are doing -- and most importantly, what they need to do as the clock ticks down.

We begin with CNN's Kelly Wallace and the Kerry campaign.

(BEGIN VIDEO)

KELLY WALLACE, CNN CORRESPONDENT, WITH THE KERRY CAMPAIGN, NEW HAMPSHIRE: John Kerry's strategy -- take nothing for granted these final hours, and that means going door to door ...

KERRY: Terrific, great.

WALLACE: ... and bringing out the big guns to get out the vote.

SEN. TED KENNEDY, (D) MASSACHUSETTS: He's my friend. He's my colleague. He is the leader for our generation -- this generation -- for our country and the world.

WALLACE: More than 2,000 people crammed into a Nashua high school gymnasium to see the senior and junior senators from Massachusetts. Kerry's biggest applause line, the defeat of President Bush.

KERRY: For he has run the most arrogant, inept, reckless and ideological foreign policy in the modern history of this country. And we will hold him accountable.

WALLACE: In an interview with CNN, Kerry said, despite his lead in the polls, he does not think of himself as the front runner.

KERRY: You know, I was so far behind a few weeks ago. And things change. We had to fight our back in Iowa, and I'm still fighting for every vote that I can get here in New Hampshire.

WALLACE: Is it Iowa? Or is people giving you a second look? Or you're better?

KERRY: Kelly, you're going to have to -- you've going to have to ask the vote. I'm just going out and campaigning from my gut and from my heart, and talking to people about how I can help make their lives better.

KERRY: I think we're going to do one more.

WALLACE: But Kerry is already looking beyond New Hampshire to the February 3rd states, with the top advisors saying South Carolina and Missouri will be among his first stops.

CANDY CROWLEY, CNN CORRESPONDENT, WITH THE DEAN CAMPAIGN: This is Sandy Crowley with the Dean campaign.

It's different since losing Iowa, since the speech. Rev 'em up, get 'em out rallies are the exception. There are just flashes of the candidate that rode out of nowhere on the heat of his rhetoric.

DEAN: Si, se puede. Si, se puede. And, boy, are we going to do it, too. Si, se puede.

CROWLEY: It has been a week of campaign rehab. Now, Howard Dean talks policy, highlights his record and quietly reminds voters of what caught their attention in the first place.

DEAN: It's easy to be against the war now. It wasn't so easy a year ago, when 80 percent of the people disagreed with me.

CROWLEY: Now, after two years of campaigning like a monk, Howard Dean has company. Dr. Steinberg, a/k/a Judy Dean, courts the women's vote.

JUDITH STEINBERG DEAN, WIFE OF HOWARD DEAN: We all struggle and juggle to do it all. And I'm here to tell you that Howard gets it.

CROWLEY: Two days from the New Hampshire primary he once seemed sure to win, things are different now. Howard Dean lost more than Iowa, he lost the aura of certainty.

DEAN: We don't know if we can make it up in the last two days. But I can tell you one thing -- it's possible. DAN LOTHIAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT, WITH THE CLARK CAMPAIGN: I'm Dan Lothian with the Clark campaign. With the retired general losing his voice, down in the polls, but energized by the crowds, for the first time only took questions from undecided voters at a rally in Henniker, New Hampshire.

GEN. WESLEY CLARK, DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I would sincerely like to take questions from people who are still making up their minds, may have some issues they want to talk about.

LOTHIAN: Aids say the strategy over the next few critical hours will be to remain consistent and convincing, making the case that Clark can beat Bush, beginning in the Granite State, then moving on to South Carolina.

JIM HODGES, FORMER GOVERNOR, SOUTH CAROLINA: I know what's going to happen a week from Tuesday in South Carolina. We're going to win down there.

LOTHIAN: The former governor of South Carolina, part of a lineup of big name Democrats the Clark campaign is trotting out to get the attention of voters in the next contest. The retired general's wife doing her part, too.

GERT CLARK, WIFE OF GEN. WESLEY CLARK: It will not be over Tuesday, one way or the other. And just remember that.

LOTHIAN: And aides say they have the cash to keep going.

JEANNE MESERVE, CNN CORRESPONDENT, WITH THE EDWARDS CAMPAIGN: I'm Jeanne Meserve with the Edwards campaign.

So many people showed up at John Edwards' Sunday events, they couldn't all fit in the allotted space, spilling into overflow rooms.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I see a little bit of John Kennedy in Edwards.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I like the fact that he's got experience as a trial lawyer going up against the corporate bigwigs.

MESERVE: But these voters and many others said they had turned out to size up Edwards, but hadn't yet made a commitment.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Shopping.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Shopping.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Shopping (UNINTELLIGIBLE)?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Shopping, as well.

MESERVE: The candidate says he's convinced he can close the deal with undecideds, both Democrats and Independents.

JOHN EDWARDS, DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I've been close for the last three or four weeks, first in Iowa and then here. I'm doing everything I can possibly do to close.

MESERVE: Edwards won't predict how he'll finish in New Hampshire, but a poll out Sunday shows him at the head of the pack in South Carolina -- a contest even more critical to his campaign survival than this one.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: Well, that's a look at the top four. It's intriguing to note, Senator Joe Lieberman's numbers in this latest CNN USA Today Gallup poll, he is part of that three-way statistical tie, essentially, behind Kerry and Dean.

But given how that bottom tier, if you will, is bunched, third place for Senator Lieberman is no slam dunk, and the senator, who did not contest Iowa, needs to come up with something he can call good news out of here on Tuesday night.

If every potential voter in the state has actually seen a candidate, then it may very well be true that every potential voter here in this state has been polled a time or two, as well.

We just finished our last poll, and buried in the numbers are a couple of intriguing stories to tell, stories that reach beyond the numbers. And as we always do, we turn to Bill Schneider for that.

Mr. Schneider joins us here in Manchester. Nice to have you.

BILL SCHNEIDER, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, Aaron, the story of this week has been momentum -- upward momentum for some, downward for others.

Kerry has had the upward momentum, but in our latest poll, that momentum has stalled and his support has stabilized in the mid-30s.

Dean has shown downward momentum all week long. And in our latest poll, that momentum has stalled. He's in the mid-20s. That's still a pretty close margin.

And the other three candidates -- Wesley Clark has been showing some losses all week. He's showing gains at the very end. Lieberman, Edwards and Clark are all three in a statistical dead heat, very close to each other.

So there's really a question about Dean versus Kerry. How solid a margin, if Kerry comes out ahead, will he have? Can Dean overtake him?

And then, that tight contest between Clark, Lieberman and Edwards. I would say, this state, having changed a lot of votes in the past week, is now holding its breath. We don't know what's going to happen.

BROWN: And in fact, this state is notorious for its independence and defying even the polls that are taken up to the last couple of days. Let's look beyond numbers here, or at least beyond the big number.

Where does the support lie? If a voter says, I like John Kerry, what is he saying?

SCHNEIDER: Well, he's saying something very interesting. He's not saying, particularly, that it's the issues. This is not an issues-driven race.

When we asked people in this latest tracking poll, which candidate's in touch with the average American, the answer was Dean, by a small margin.

Which candidate stands up for what he believes in? Dean, by a little margin. Which candidate has new ideas to help solve the country's problems? Dean.

So, why is Kerry ahead? Because when we asked which candidate has the best chance of beating George W. Bush, look at that. Kerry, 56 percent. I mean, that's a huge margin over Howard Dean, with just 16.

People seem to be voting for Kerry, because they see him as a winner. The Democrats in this state desperately want to beat George Bush, and they're worried that Howard Dean can't do it, and John Kerry, they think, can.

BROWN: We're done polling. That's it, right?

SCHNEIDER: That's it. That's it.

BROWN: We'll see what the numbers turn out to be on Tuesday. Thank you, sir, ...

SCHNEIDER: Sure.

BROWN: ... very much.

Coming up, a little candidate shopping.

REBECCA BEATON, UNDECIDED NEW HAMPSHIRE VOTER: Part of it has to be personal preference at this point, because they're so similar in so many ways.

BROWN: Judy Woodruff follows some of New Hampshire voters who are getting plenty of attention today. They are in that group we love best -- the undecideds.

We'll be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: A quarter of likely voters -- a quarter of them -- in New Hampshire tonight say they could change their minds between now and Tuesday. That's the kind of thing that'll keep a campaign manager up. And, indeed, the state has a reputation for making late choices.

CNN's Judy Woodruff now, looking at some of those undecided voters, and why it's so hard for the candidates here to close the deal.

(BEGIN VIDEO)

KERRY: I'm serious. I'm not leaving here till you look me in the eye and tell me you're going to go vote.

JUDY WOODRUFF, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT, NEW HAMPSHIRE: Time to close the deal, if you can.

EDWARDS: I need you. I need you to help me change this country.

DEAN: Can I get your vote?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yes.

DEAN: All right.

WOODRUFF: If it were only that easy.

It's Iowa caucus night in Hillsboro, New Hampshire, the home of Democratic activists, Laura and Jayme Simoes. They are undecided. And their votes won't come cheap.

LAURA SIMOES, DEMOCRATIC ACTIVIST, NEW HAMPSHIRE: I don't see his poll numbers in ...

WOODRUFF: Friends are over to talk politics and watch the returns.

More than anything, they want to beat Bush. And they worry. Is Edwards too young? Can Kerry connect? Does Clark have depth? Is Dean too angry?

LAURA SIMOES: Look at that. Why isn't Dean doing better?

DEAN: And, certainly, we would have liked to have done better. But we worked hard. We have a lot of great people working for us, and on to New Hampshire.

LAURA SIMOES: It's shocking.

WOODRUFF: Laura has struggled with her choice. Then she saw Kerry meet a Green Beret he had saved in Vietnam.

KERRY: Seeing this fellow here, it's amazing to me.

LAURA SIMOES: And when I saw him on television, and I saw him being emotional, and I saw him, not just on message and being a good campaigner, but being a good person -- and that moment made such a difference for me. I started crying.

WOODRUFF: A small moment, but enough to put John Kerry back in the game.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The President of the United States.

WOODRUFF: Tuesday night, in Newcastle-on-the-Sea (ph), three young women are watching the State of the Union on their TiVo. The two Democrats, Suzanne Klunk and Rebecca Beaton, are both anti-war, and their dislike of the President is visceral.

SUZANNE KLUNK, UNDECIDED NEW HAMPSHIRE VOTER: He's put the whole state of the nation in a state of anxiety.

REBECCA BEATON, UNDECIDED NEW HAMPSHIRE VOTER: So many Americans are excited about the war on terrorism and the war in Iraq, and smoking them out of their holes.

WOODRUFF: But neither can settle on a candidate. Time to knuckle down and get to work.

The next night they are in a packed VFW hall in Portsmouth to catch John Edwards.

EDWARDS: You think we can get some more people in this room?

You know, if I could grab you right now and drag you to the polls.

(LAUGHTER)

BEATON: I thought he was very charming, and very enjoyable to listen to.

KLUNK: On the television ads, he didn't seem as a strong candidate. He didn't seem as a firm believer in what he stood behind. Tonight, I'll say that I was very impressed.

WOODRUFF: On the way out, Suzanne gets a handshake and pops a question.

KLUNK: (UNINTELLIGIBLE)?

EDWARDS: (UNINTELLIGIBLE).

KLUNK: All right. Good job. Keep it up.

WOODRUFF: But, they're not sold yet. Friday, back in Hillsboro, Laura and Jayme Simoes are hosting Edwards' wife, Elizabeth, for tea.

LAURA SIMOES: I am so delighted to have Elizabeth Edwards here in my home, in my house.

WOODRUFF: The house is packed with undecided voters. The actress Glenn Close is there, too. Mrs. Edwards is working it hard.

ELIZABETH EDWARDS, WIFE OF JOHN EDWARDS: It's my job. Here it is, only a few days before the end of this primary season. We want to have the votes of every person in this room. WOODRUFF: But Laura is still no closer to a decision. She and Jayme have it narrowed down to three, but they're holding back to see how the candidates handle the pressure of the final days. Despite a week of negative press, Dean is still in it.

JAYME SIMOES, UNDECIDED NEW HAMPSHIRE VOTER: I've always liked Howard Dean. I respect him tremendously. I respect his honesty.

I respect that he doesn't have a filter in his head, that he has to think, well, how is this going to play in Des Moines, before he says something.

He's a real guy. And it turned them off. But I like that.

WOODRUFF: As for Edwards, whose wife is speaking in the other room, he's terrific, but ...

JAYME SIMOES: This fellow was laughing at, at the debate, that his breadth and depth could use a little more experience.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: How are you?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Good.

WOODRUFF: In Manchester, Suzanne and Rebecca are back on the trail, at a John Kerry veterans event.

KLUNK: That's what I'm looking for. I want somebody who feels (UNINTELLIGIBLE) as a partner.

BEATON: It has to be personal preference at this point, because they're so similar in so many ways.

KLUNK: And, I mean, I don't see them (UNINTELLIGIBLE) ...

BEATON: Yes, I think that Dean and Kerry or Edwards would be a great president.

WOODRUFF: Kerry tells a moving story about D-Day.

KERRY: A very gray day. Very, very similar, according to the history books, to D-Day itself.

WOODRUFF: The veterans are rapt. Suzanne and Rebecca?

KLUNK: It's kind of boring.

KERRY: I also want to talk about my brother Max for a minute here.

KLUNK: I mean he has a great image (ph), but he's kind of -- he doesn't have that enthusiasm.

KERRY: (UNINTELLIGIBLE) very quickly, you all know Max Cleveland. Nobody in America ...

KLUNK: I'm not making any choices right now.

KERRY: ... as an example of ...

WOODRUFF: Tough crowd, and still up for grabs.

(END VIDEO)

BROWN: Anne Kornblut and Terry Neal make a living watching candidates try and close the deal -- Anne for the "Boston Globe," Terry for the "Washington Post." And they're here to talk about that and more. It's nice to see you both.

What has this week in New Hampshire been about, Anne?

ANNE KORNBLUT, BOSTON GLOBE: Well, I think the big word for this race has been electability.

Very rarely are we hearing talk of the issues on the trail right now, a lot less than usual, anyway, in the final days.

All the Democrats I've spoken to anyway, seem to want is somebody who can beat George W. Bush, and that's what they're trying to decide is, who in this crowd is most electable?

BROWN: Different, Terry -- I saw you nodding -- different from any other election year? Is it that some -- there is a perception that some simply aren't electable?

TERRY NEAL, THE WASHINGTON POST: Well, I mean, I think it's more intense this year. And what is striking to me is how intense they are, is about how much voters have changed, I think, in the last month or two.

I think, a month or two I wouldn't have said -- in fact, I wrote a column saying that electability wasn't that much of an issue. I think I was right at the time, but I'm not right anymore.

BROWN: How would we know?

NEAL: I think -- yes, exactly. The closer we've gotten to the election, the more people have paid attention to this issue.

I spent the day yesterday out talking to voters around the state, off the campaign trail. And that's the first thing they said. You know, I like a lot of these different candidates. I want the one who could beat Bush.

BROWN: Do either of you have a sense that Governor Dean has recovered in the electability department from the Iowa moment?

KORNBLUT: Well, certainly in our tracking polls, we're seeing that he's stabilized. And I think some voters have recoiled from the idea that the scream was all that bad. I think they've come back to him to give him another chance. Said, you know what? That was only seven seconds. I don't know about electability, though. More so than the scream, I'm hearing from voters, they're worried that he came in third in Iowa. They want someone who can win.

BROWN: One other problem, Terry -- disagree if you want, I have no problem -- with the scream, if you will, is that it played to an uncertainty about the governor to begin with.

NEAL: Well, it also played into a stereotype about the governor. And the way politics works today, they, you know, politics -- politicians get labeled very easily and very early, and it's almost impossible to shake that stereotypes. That reinforced a stereotype of him that existed.

But I didn't hear -- and this is just anecdotal, not scientific -- but I didn't hear people, of the people, all the people that we talked to across the state yesterday, I didn't hear one person bring it up without being asked.

BROWN: I think that's an intriguing point.

If there's to be a surprise on Tuesday, where's it coming from, Anne?

KORNBLUT: Oh, I am not going to predict that. I mean, I think at this point, with everyone expecting Kerry to do so well, the only surprise we could see is somebody coming in and either a stronger showing or a weaker showing than we expect.

BROWN: Do you expect General Clark to be OK with the results out of here? Is he OK with it?

NEAL: You know, I don't know. He is ...

BROWN: He invested heavily here.

NEAL: What we're seeing happening with him is the same sort of thing that happened with Clark -- excuse me, with Dean -- in Iowa a few days before, where his tracking numbers were going steadily down each day.

I don't know. I mean, you know, the numbers in Iowa turned out to be fairly accurate. So, I don't know.

The one thing that's kind of interesting is that Lieberman seems to be moving up a little bit. And I think the race is for third place right now. Who's going to place third here?

BROWN: Senator Lieberman can hardly afford not ...

NEAL: He needs to.

BROWN: Yes, and we'll (ph) see (ph) what happens. Nice to see you in person, both. Thank you.

NEAL: Thanks. Thanks very much. BROWN: Good luck on Tuesday, by the way.

Coming up next on this special edition of CNN PRESENTS, will New Hampshire be a king maker? Jeff Greenfield joins us, has a few thoughts on what the Granite State will and will not do for those who hope for the nomination.

A break first and we're right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: There are lots of reasons New Hampshire matters, New Hampshire getting the attention it gets. It's the first primary, the first place votes are actually cast.

The outcome can open the money spigot or shut it down. It's a good test of how candidates are seen by all sorts of voters, including independents. And for some, a bad showing in New Hampshire could end it all.

So it matters in lots of ways.

But for all the fuss over New Hampshire, there is one thing it doesn't do.

Here's our senior analyst, Jeff Greenfield.

(BEGIN VIDEO)

JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: We are going to learn a lot about their fates in about 48 hours.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: The winner of the Iowa caucuses ...

GREENFIELD: As he sees the high ground. Yet Iowa propelled him to unlikely strength.

DEAN: And Michigan ...

GREENFIELD: Did his Iowa defeat have lasting effects? How shrewd or foolish were the Iowa bypassers?

But here's what New Hampshire will not do. It will not give the Democratic Party a nominee, and it may not even provide a definitive shape of things to come.

So, if we look at what New Hampshire has meant in the past, maybe we'll get some sense of what it will mean this time.

Lesson one. An unexpected loss or a bad showing in New Hampshire can throw a campaign for a loop.

Lyndon Johnson actually beat Senator Eugene McCarthy on a write- in in 1968, but McCarthy's 42 percent was a shocking showing.

LYNDON B. JOHNSON, FORMER PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I shall not seek, ...

GREENFIELD: LBJ pulled out of the race two weeks later.

JOHNSON: ... and I will not accept ...

GREENFIELD: Ronald Reagan's near tie with President Ford in 1976 was covered as a loss, because his campaign manager had predicted a huge win.

Walter Mondale's loss ...

GARY HART, FORMER DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I love New Hampshire.

GREENFIELD: To Gary Hart in 1984, ...

PATRICK BUCHANAN, FORMER REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: The whole Republican establishment in Washington, D.C.

GREENFIELD: Pat Buchanan's 1992 showing against President Bush both hurt the favorites.

This is, obviously, a cautionary tale for Howard Dean, ...

DEAN: Oh, I really appreciate it.

GREENFIELD: ... who led by a 25 point margin barely a month ago, and who now trails John Kerry.

Lesson two. If you lose New Hampshire, retreat to higher ground.

After Reagan's close loss in 1976, he lost four consecutive primaries to Ford, but he won in North Carolina four weeks after New Hampshire, ...

GERALD FORD, FORMER PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I congratulate you for a fine campaign.

GREENFIELD: ... and then rolled up enough late wins to nearly dethrone Ford at the convention.

WALTER MONDALE, FORMER DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Good to see you.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Thank you.

GREENFIELD: Mondale lost Florida and Massachusetts in 1984, after losing New Hampshire. But his wins in Alabama and Georgia kept him alive for later victories.

BILL CLINTON, FORMER PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: And I think we're going to do pretty well today.

GREENFIELD: And Bill Clinton found his first victory in Georgia, ...

CLINTON: I hope you're about half as happy as I am tonight.

GREENFIELD: ... two weeks after his second place come-back kid New Hampshire finish.

Of course, the calendar does move a lot faster now. But for Senator Edwards, for General Clark and maybe even for Howard Dean, South Carolina and the six other primaries and caucuses on February 3rd, may offer higher ground if they lose here.

February 3rd is mostly red state country.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: This is Gore country.

GREENFIELD: In 2000, Gore carried only Delaware and barely New Mexico.

AL GORE, JR., FORMER DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I want to fight for your families, ...

GREENFIELD: Not the most friendly territory for a man from Kennedy and Dukakis country.

CLARK: We need more people now.

GREENFIELD: And consider, General Clark has already spent more than $2 million in Arizona, New Mexico, Oklahoma and South Carolina.

Senator Edwards has already spent more than $700,000, just in South Carolina and Oklahoma.

Howard Dean has already spent more than $3 million in the February 3rd states.

Senator Lieberman spent more than $800,000 in Arizona, South Carolina and Oklahoma.

As of last Sunday, Senator John Kerry had spent virtually nothing in any of those states.

Lesson three. The big states sometimes do matter. Yes, New Hampshire winners are sometimes put on a glide path to nominations -- Carter, Reagan, the first George Bush.

But there are also plenty of examples where the bigger states have had plenty of clout. New York made Ted Kennedy a contender again in 1980. Illinois and New York clenched it for Mondale in 1984.

Michigan, Illinois and New York did it for Bill Clinton in 1992.

And this year, big or relatively big states come early -- Missouri on February 3rd, Michigan four days later, Virginia on February 10th, Wisconsin on February 17th.

For Howard Dean in particular, with his impressive treasury and organization, many of these are potential staging areas for a rebound, should he fail in New Hampshire. (END VIDEOTAPE)

GREENFIELD: But, of course, what we don't know is who is going to fail and who is going to succeed in New Hampshire. Once again, Aaron, the voters of New Hampshire, who have this wonderful habit of rearranging or throwing right into the dustbin, everything we thought we knew 96 hours ago, are giving every sign they're doing it again.

And anyone who dares to predict who is going to be the winner, loser, better than expected or otherwise, Tuesday night, they ought to just take a vow of silence.

BROWN: God bless the voters of New Hampshire for that.

What then, if it doesn't mean you won it -- you won it all -- what then does it mean? How should we look at the winner on Tuesday night?

GREENFIELD: Here's one good example. John Kerry, as I pointed out, has been absolutely silent in the February 3rd states. He has spent not a dime.

We are now seeing polls, based on the fact that Kerry is leading in New Hampshire, showing that he is now within a hair's breadth of taking the lead in South Carolina and Arizona.

And one of the questions that we will have answered is coming out of New Hampshire. Whoever the winner is, how much will that magnify and effect play in those really critical states when we start talking about something we don't talk about much until now, delegates.

BROWN: Delegates. That's what -- then you have to do math, it gets complicated.

GREENFIELD: Arithmetic.

BROWN: Thank you, see you later.

Up next on CNN PRESENTS on this Sunday, the politics of cyber space. Will the internet change politics forever? The founders of the online political powerhouse MOVEON.ORG have 1.7 million reasons to think it might. Break first, we're right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: Every year it is something, and this year the something is the power of the internet. Howard Dean is the undisputed poster boy at the moment. Raising a lot of money in cyber space, and creating an online community all his own.

But perhaps the best model to look at is MOVEON.ORG. The liberal web site has become an outlet for the left in the country, in the way talk radio has become an outlet for the right.

The question remains though, can it produce more than some money and a lot of talk? Can it turn anger and opposition into organization and to votes? And on that score, the question remains open, and important.

Here's CNN political analyst Ron Brownstein.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Like most 23-year-olds in New York City, Ely Parriser (ph) shares his uptown apartment with four roommates. Unlike most 23-year-olds, this morning he's posting an e-mail to 1.7 million people eagerly waiting to hear from him.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Dealers asking people to call their local AERP (ph) branch, and turn in their memberships, because the AERP (ph) is kind of selling out.

BROWNSTEIN: Two hundred miles away, Zack Ecksley (ph) commutes to a trendy coffee shop in Washington D.C. to get wired up for work. Ecksley had his 15 minutes of fame in 2000, for starting a web site that parodied often in fighting terms, presidential candidate George W. Bush's official campaign web site.

On this brisk morning, Ecksley (ph) is dispatching volunteers to tout a new ad that jabs at President Bush again.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We've got 4,500 people who have volunteered for those different roles.

BROWNSTEIN: In Berkeley, California, are Wes Boyd (ph), and Joan Blaves (ph). Software millionaires who's company is known for creating the flying toaster screen saver.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: And this is the Move (ph) On (ph) voter (ph) fund (ph) web site.

BROWNSTEIN: Today, they are monitoring a derive (ph) to raise $10 million to fund a media campaign against President Bush.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: You can go right here and instantly contribute, and see that we have 6.2 million contributed against a $10 million goal.

BROWNSTEIN: These people are at the heart of a political revolution. A rapidly growing online liberal group called MOVEON.ORG (ph). It represents the first systematic use of the internet to influence American politics.

MICHAEL CORNFIELD, INTERNET POLITICAL EXPERT: Well in historical terms, they are the first purely online advocacy group. And they are pioneering a new form of political organization.

BROWNSTEIN: Move On was born in 1998. When Wes Boyd (ph), and Joan Blaves (ph), fresh from selling their company, sent a few dozen friends an online petition opposing the impeachment of Bill Clinton.

Move On took it's name from the petition's message. Rather than impeach Clinton they said, congress should censure him, and move on. UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: We were sitting in a Chinese restaurant, and we were hearing people talking yet again about how crazy this obsession with Monica Lewinsky and this scandal was. And we realized that we could do something. And that's when we decided to just put out this petition.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We had hundreds of thousands of people who were looking to speak out through this petition. And then all of a sudden we had this problem, how do we help these people?

BROWNSTEIN: When the impeachment fight was over, Wes and Joan had half a million names on their e-mail list. Another 800,000 signed up in the months before the war in Iraq. Most of them from an online petition that Ely Parriser (ph) just out of college created on his home computer.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I got this call one morning from the guy that was hosting the server, who said Ely, it's crashing, it's crashing. Where are all these people coming from?

BROWNSTEIN: (on-camera) Move On has grown into a 1.7 million- member powerhouse that can generate thousands of phone calls and e- mails to Washington. On issues from the Iraq war to the environment. And raise millions of dollars to buy ads and contribute to candidates.

BROWNSTEIN: (voice-over) Move On's success may be the less answer to talk radio. For 15 years, liberals have tried and failed to develop alternatives to popular conservative hosts, like Rush Limbaugh.

But Move On is demonstrating that the internet can mobilize as much political activity for the left, as talk radio does for the right. Maybe even more.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Look at body language. If I'm watching TV, I'm down like this. If I'm driving, I've got both hands on the wheel. If I am at my computer reading the internet, I am poised for action.

BROWNSTEIN: Republicans are looking to catch up. Conservatives aggressively use the internet in the recent recall of California Governor Grey Davis. But Larry Paporro (ph), a Republican Internet Consultant, says Move On has out paced anything on the right.

LARRY PAPORRO (ph), REPUBLICAN INTERNET CONSULTANT: Well I'd say they are number one. They are now the yardstick by which people measure their activity. And frankly, we get a lot of calls here now. Some direst, and some indirect, but the message is the same. Show us how to become like MOVEON.ORG (ph).

BROWNSTEIN: Not all Democrats are enthusiastic. Some democratic centrists (ph) worry that Move On may be pushing an agenda to liberal and polarizing to win in 2004.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: There's a real danger that the internet will take us off the deep end ideologically, so that it won't matter how money we can raise, we won't be able to win the argument. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HOWARD DEAN, PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We need a new president.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BROWNSTEIN: Move On minds (ph) the same vein of anger for President Bush that has powered Howard Dean's presidential campaign.

Before the war began, Move On reprised the famous daisy ad, from Linden Johnson's (ph) 1964 campaign. To suggest an invasion of Iraq could escalate into a nuclear holocaust.

BROWNSTEIN: (on camera) Was any of this looking back over the top, over the edge, unjustified?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I don't believe so no. That message was when you go to war; you don't know what's going to happen. I think that's been proven very true.

BROWNSTEIN: (voice over) Move On is trying to build it's beach (ph) head (ph) in the cyber world, into a presence in the physical world. A few weeks before Christmas, the group sponsored more than 2,200 simultaneous house parties around the country to watch a documentary criticizing the war in Iraq.

Steve Duggin (ph) and Sue Riley (ph) hosted one of the parties in Fairfax, Virginia. They learned about Move On at an antiwar demonstration last spring. And have been active ever since.

This is kind of an unusual organization. It doesn't have an office. It doesn't have a magazine. It doesn't have a membership card. Doesn't have dues.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: But it has print (ph) cycles (ph). And it has an activism which really strikes to our heart of where we think we would like to take this country.

BROWNSTEIN: Founded on e-mail, and the modem, and the server, Move On believes it's future may increasingly be found in living rooms like this. With cookies, and cider, and conversation.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The internet is not people sitting at their computers alone. The internet can be just a mechanism for people to connect with other people, to then go do things in the real world. That's where the real power lies.

BROWN: The real power lies it seems to me, in being able to translate this into a vote. Conservative talk radio it seems, I think arguably has demonstrated it can do that.

BROWNSTEIN: Well there are many dimensions of political influence. I mean the ability to generate lots of money, and lots of e-mails, and lots of phone calls are all important in legislative fights (ph). But you are right. The big question for these online advocacy groups and indeed for Howard Dean is whether the excitement they generate on the internet can be translated into votes.

It goes a little deeper than that Aaron. I wonder if what it takes to stand out on the internet requires a message polarizing and sharp enough that it may be inimical to what it takes. It's something that Move On is wrestling with. And somebody (ph) at the Dean campaign I think is experiencing as well.

BROWN: There are actually two questions there. Bruce Reed (ph) alludes to that. Does Move On get it that maybe it is in it's heart and soul left of where the country is?

BROWNSTEIN: They don't view it that way. And they see themselves as representing sort of an underrepresented Democratic constituency. On the other hand, I think it's quite striking. They've done this very exhaustive competition where -- controversial competition where they had people produce an ad -- an anti-Bush ad -- and what they come up with, and what they picked was something that was very much in the mainstream.

It wasn't an antiwar ad; it wasn't anything like what you saw in the daisy replica that they did. It was something on the deficit. On the cost of children. So perhaps that is a sign that they themselves feel the need to try to find somewhat less polarizing message, one that may reach out to a broader segment of the electorate (ph).

BROWN: One thing I'll tell you is that they have that e-mail thing down. Absolutely. You know when they've decided to start an e- mail campaign.

BROWNSTEIN: One point seven million members all sitting at the computer waiting, and acting.

BROWN: And I get them all.

BROWNSTEIN: Yes, all right.

BROWN: Thank you Ron.

When we continue on this special edition of CNN PRESENTS, we talk about retail politics. We'll show you the battle, and it is extraordinary for one voter, one man in this state. Break first, we'll be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: We should call this retail politics gone mad. That's what they call it here, retail politics. Where every voter theoretically at least could actually meet every candidate. Get a feel, take their measure. Or in this case, take a bit more than their measure. Here's CNN's Suzanne Malveaux.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Veteran Don Duhamel is fulfilling a lifelong dream. Within weeks he plans to open New Hampshire's first homeless shelter for veterans. Called Liberty House.

DON DUHAMEL: When they come through this door, they are going to feel wanted. And it's going to be a home. The are going to be treated with dignity and respect.

MALVEAUX: But in his attempt to open the shelter, Duhamel found himself in the middle of a tug-of-war. Between Democratic presidential candidates John Kerry, and Wesley Clark. Both are Vietnam vets fighting for the critical veteran vote.

In late November, Kerry volunteered at the shelter.

DUHAMEL: I think he called me friend (ph), and we shook hands, I think we might have even hugged.

MALVEAUX: Kerry quietly made a $10,000 donation to the house. And Duhamel later pledged his support.

DUHAMEL: That kind of shocked me. I never thought I was going to get that much money.

MALVEAUX: Duhamel later met Clark and was equally impressed.

DUHAMEL: And he's another wonderful gentleman. Another hero.

MALVEAUX: A Clark campaign operative encouraged Duhamel to publicly say so. The Clark camp (ph) drafted a letter, and Duhamel signed it. The letter which was published in several area newspapers read in part, I used to lean toward John Kerry, but I've decided to support General Wesley Clark after hearing several of his talks in New Hampshire.

The Kerry camp (ph) was stunned at Duhamel's switch.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It looked like the work of a campaign operative who was trying to exploit a do-gooder for political gain.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We wanted him to show his support publicly, but that has nothing to do with our support for Liberty House. We're not politicizing this at all.

MALVEAUX: (on camera) In the meantime, the Kerry camp (ph) told Duhamel there was another $10,000 for the shelter that had already been put in the pipeline before his letter had been published.

MALVEAUX: (voice over) Duhamel knew it was time to choose sides.

DUHAMEL: That was the toughest decision I had to make. Because I was leaning towards General Clark. And then, I went back to Senator Kerry.

MALVEAUX: And how did you make that public? DUHAMEL: I just changed the signs in the window.

MALVEAUX: But the Clark campaign still had some good news for him. It had decided to auction off the General's well-worn argyle sweater on eBay. With the proceeds going to Liberty House, netting thousands.

DUHAMEL: Both candidates are great. And like I said, I wish they were here every year.

MALVEAUX: So possibly the real winner of the New Hampshire primary, Don Duhamel. Suzanne Malveaux, CNN, Manchester New Hampshire.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: One vote. When we come back, bad moments on the campaign trail. A break first.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: A political truth here. A great campaign moment, the best speech you ever made, the greatest event you ever staged. It lasts about a day. Your worse moment can last a lifetime. Add to that truism, 24-hour cable news which can and will broadcast that worst moment every hour on the hour everyday, until the tape wears out, and that bad moment can look even worse.

Now Howard Dean had a bad moment on Monday night, and has been living with that bad moment for a week. Whether that's fair or not isn't the point. It just is, always has been, and always will be. Bruce Morton (ph) tonight on bad moments.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BRUCE MORTON, `CNN CORRESPONDENT: Ok, One More Play. Hear Dean scream.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HOWARD DEAN: And then we're going to Washington D.C. to take back the White House.

MORTON: It reminds you of other famous stumbles. Ed Muskey (ph) in 1972 breaking down while denouncing the Publisher of the Manchester Union Leader, for attacking Muskey's wife in print.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ED MUSKEY (ph): By attacking my wife, he's proved himself to be a gutless coward. It's fortunate for him he's not on this platform beside me.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MORTON: Did he cry (ph)? It was snowing, hard to tell, but he certainly broke down and lost his cool.

President Gerald Ford denying that the Communists controlled Eastern Europe in 1976.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GERALD FORD: There is no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe, and there never will be under a Ford Administration.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MORTON: There were of course Soviet troops in those countries.

Dan Quail misspelling potato. He was Vice President, but voters may have remembered the scene when he ran for president.

Michael Dukakis riding that tank in 1988. Even his staff was laughing while the cameras rolled. Gas (ph) can hurt a candidate, are they fatal? It depends.

THOMAS MANN, BROOKINGS INSTITUTION: There's no telling whether or not Michael Dukakis would have won the election without his tank ride. The odds are he would have lost due to other factors.

Similarly, Ed Muskey (ph) had shortcomings and problems as a candidate that might well have materialized without that particular incident.

MORTON: True, Muskey (ph) relied to much on endorsements for instance. But sometimes as with Ford's misstatement about Eastern Europe, the gaffs (ph) go to the heart of the campaign. Especially if it's on TV.

STEVE MESS, BROOKINGS INSTITUTION: They are like pinning a butterfly to a corkboard. It's where your image of them stops and gets frozen. And that can be deadly. But it's emblematic. It brings forth in your mind all the reasons that you were troubled by that person to begin with.

MORTON: That may have happened to Howard Dean. Some Democrats wanted an angry man to confront George W. Bush. Some worried that Dean was to angry, to hot.

MANN: Many Democrats are just beginning to pay attention to the contest of they want to win this election, they want Bush out of the White House. This leads them to consider whether the Governor would be an easy target for President Bush. So he's got to do something dramatic to transform that. It's very hard to do.

MORTON: Bottom line. Does he have the temperament to be president? Will the voters see this as Dean's defining moment?

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: On the careful way plan this; this is when we would introduce Howard Dean. But Governor Dean is running late at a rally in the state. And we may get to him, and we may not. But if you had to turn to someone in a moment like this, you'd do what I do, which is turn to Jeff again.

GREENFIELD: Hi.

BROWN: And you were here. Mark Shields the other night on NEWS NIGHT said that he thought that Dean had received capital punishment for parking in a no parking zone essentially. Do you agree with that?

GREENFIELD: Not entirely, because it seems to me that you have to know the terrain. And you have to know that if you were the front- runner who has just come in a disappointing third, a lot of people looking at you to see, how do you take a punch in the first round -- to use a retched sports metaphor.

Because it happens to almost every front-runner. From Reagan, to Bush, to Clinton. And even if the argument was there were people in the room and all, they had to know what that terrain was.

Now the other thing is that he hasn't received capital punishment. That is people look at him. He became the laughing stock. He did the top ten. Everybody made a joke of it. They showed it 15 times, and then asked other media playing it to much. And guess what? Howard Dean has begun to come back in the polls.

BROWN: Yes, he seemed to find whatever his natural bottom was here in New Hampshire and bounce off of it. But he was also a guy running 20 points ahead three weeks ago.

GREENFIELD: Three weeks ago, but not one week ago. He was going to take a hit out of Iowa anyway. But what I mean is that there is this notion, Nikki Cous (ph), a writer, calls it the filer (ph) faster thesis (ph) after a friend of his.

It says we speed up so much that the electorate processes information far faster so that already this tape is looking like golden oldie. When did that happen, 1956? I think that's what happens.

BROWN: Is that it's seen so often that it becomes meaningless after a while?

GREENFIELD: Yes. There are some moments you see all the time, and they do not become meaningless because they are so iconic.

BROWN: Let me just turn this a half of degree. I think he's handled it pretty well.

GREENFIELD: Indeed. Now some of this is by the book. Make a lighthearted joke. You go on David Letterman. Show that you are a solid sane human being, you go on Diane Sawyer with your wife, and you look like two very happy people who care about each other.

But the other part of this is that if this were 30 years ago, that tape would only be seen once a day. Maybe twice a day. On the morning show and the evening show. And then you'd read about it. Would not be seen every split second -- how many times did we see this in this piece on this air tonight? And we are being very restrained.

So in fact, I think what's happened is people have seen that. They've processed it. They realize that it's not the definition of the guy. And now I think people are going to go to the polls and vote on that in the back of their mind instead of the absolute front. So that's probably a healthy thing.

BROWN: Thank you.

GREENFIELD: OK.

BROWN: Have fun on Tuesday. Thanks for being with us. I hope you'll join us on Tuesday night. CNN's continuous coverage of the New Hampshire Primary. Begins at 7:00pm Eastern Time.

And from Manchester, New Hampshire, I'm Aaron BROWN reporting. LARRY KING LIVE is next. Good night everyone.

END

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