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INSIDE AFRICA

Zimbabwe, Post-Election

Aired April 5, 2008 - 12:30:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

ISHA SESAY, CNN ANCHOR: Hello, I'm Isha Sesay.
A week after Zimbabwe's elections, uncertainty reigns. President Robert Mugabe and his supporters appear to be digging in for an extended fight. A presidential run-off now appears almost certain, and there is word of a crackdown on opposition members and foreign journalists. But members the Mr. Mugabe's own party may be turning against him. An anonymous ZANU-PF member tells CNN a deep split has formed, and some members think Mr. Mugabe should step down. Can he survive this fierce challenge?

We turn now to Jim Clancy with this special edition of INSIDE AFRICA from the Zimbabwe-South Africa border.

JIM CLANCY, CNN ANCHOR: All right. Thank you, Isha, for that. We are coming to you from along the Zimbabwean border. We're at the Beit Bridge crossing, really, a commercial center. You can see the big trucks rolling through, bringing goods in and out from South Africa into Zimbabwe, and the other way.

Here we have a very colorful convenience, because thousands and thousands of people every day come through here, and this is the perfect place to put up your stall with fruits and vegetables.

Ladies, how many of us are from Zimbabwe? And they're not paying a lot of attention. One is raising her hand over there, so there are some Zimbabweans that are here trying to sell their vegetables.

I want to bring you up to date. We're going to take a half-hour look, an in-depth look at what is happening in Zimbabwe right now.

An update for you -- what we know, what we don't know. What we don't know -- the results of the presidential election now more than a week ago, still waiting for that. The Movement for Democratic Change, the opposition, coming out today saying they feared violence, and they wanted to see the international community get involved to prevent that. However, Thabo Mbeki, the South African president, was asked, and for the first time gave a public comment about the crisis. He poured cold water on the idea of international intervention. Listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

THABO MBEKI, SOUTH AFRICAN PRESIDENT: I think it is time to wait, let's see the outcome of the election results. If there is a rerun of the presidential election, let's see what comes out of that. I think that's a correct way to go.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CLANCY: All right. One other update for you, and that is two of the journalists have been rearrested. As we've been telling you all week, CNN hasn't been able to officially get inside Zimbabwe, because the government has refused us accreditation. Still, we have journalists there. One of them joins us live on the line now. I want to bring her in. I have to warn you, we're doing this all by satellites. There's going to be a little bit of a delay here.

But what can you tell us right now from Zimbabwe about the situation and the latest developments?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: It has taken quite a turn here, Jim, and that is the fact that Morgan Tsvangirai, the head of the opposition here, came out this afternoon and basically accused the Mugabe regime of starting to wage war here. He says that he now -- will not contest a runoff. He believes the runoff is not needed, that he basically won fair and square.

Jim, the reason that this press conference is so significant is I know from speaking to sources here that the opposition was trying to be a little bit more reserved in what they said, especially when it came to what Morgan Tsvangirai said, that he wasn't trying to make as much contact as he could with the Mugabe regime, to convince them that there would be no retribution if he took power, no revenge taking. That what he wanted to do was try and rebuild this country.

It seems, Jim, that we can get from what he said in this press conference today that those negotiations have failed, and failed utterly.

In the meantime, Jim, as all of this is going on, the results are still in legal limbo. To remind everyone, the results for the presidential election, which were supposed to come out yesterday -- they did not.

In the meantime, the opposition is now taking the government to court saying -- the electoral commission to court -- saying you must release those results. That whole legal process now continuing, even this weekend.

Jim, the bottom line is we still don't have official results for a presidency, even though the Mugabe regime says a runoff is necessary. And if a runoff is necessary, President Mugabe will stand -- Jim.

CLANCY: What has President Mugabe said in all of this? Anything publicly?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Publicly he had said nothing, but you can certainly take from what he said apparently to party officials at the meeting, and that if they wanted him to stand, that he would.

You can only look at this one way, Jim, and that's the fact that he's trying to consolidate his power, that he will not be going quietly. And certainly from some of the ZANU-PF officials that even CNN has had certainly in the last 24 hours, they continually say that they didn't put all their effort into the presidential election, that they claim that a runoff would be completely different and that they're confident of victory.

Jim, this is all just pointing in one direction, and that is the fact that Mugabe regime intends to hang on to power for as long as they possibly can. And that is why Morgan Tsvangirai decided it was time for him to have this press conference today, and really implore the international community to help him out.

CLANCY: All right. We want to thank you for that update, what is going on in Zimbabwe. Right now, we're going to take a short break, but when we come back -- we already know the journalists have been barred. Still, some went in. We're going to talk to one, Jean-Jacques Cornish, who faced interrogation. and get his take on what's happening right now in Zimbabwe.

Don't go away. INSIDE AFRICA returns after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CLANCY: Hello, everyone. Welcome back to INSIDE AFRICA and our special look at the political crisis still developing in Zimbabwe.

Jean-Jacques Cornish is a journalist and he has been an election observer. He was interrogated for more than three hours just across the border behind me here on Friday. Why -- well, he wanted to go in and he wanted to monitor the elections. That's why. We talked to him about his experiences, and the fact that he's known Robert Mugabe for more than 30 years. What are his insights into this political crisis?

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

J.J. CORNISH, SOUTH AFRICAN JOURNALIST: Well, I had a problem -- I've been booted out twice. You know, I feel like one of those border jumpers, but I'm the only one going the other way, Jim.

I came in as an electoral observer last week, but my team wasn't accredited. So I had to kind of get past, and they gave me a few days. And finally they said that's it, you're out, you know, you're now illegal, get out. I tried to get in yesterday, and got within an inch of it, literally when the CII (ph) got hold of me. And the colleague took us in, three and half hours of grilling, took my notebook away, took other equipment, and they gave us a pretty hard time. But happily we didn't ended up as some other colleagues of mine actually, you know, in the pokey.

But they -- this blanket against news coverage of this election and the aftermath continues. They don't want that message to get to the outside world. They don't really want us to know what is happening.

CLANCY: What is ZANU-PF, what is Robert Mugabe afraid of?

CORNISH: Well, I think he doesn't know what is happening right now. And certainly the people around him don't know what is happening. So, it's all about confusion. Robert Mugabe is buying time to get the best deal for himself. And, of course, the generals, the best paid generals in the world, we're told, around him. They need security and safety.

The people just below him, they have a problem, because I mean the top guys will negotiate some sort of deal, what about them? Those guys who have done Mugabe's bidding, made some very serious enemies, and will not be protected now.

Robert Mugabe will probably end up in exile someway, in all likelihood Malaysia, because he has a lot of money there, and the Malaysians I think will accept him. The way things work in Africa is you get rid of the chap, put him out of the way, and forget about him. That's done all over. I think we still have Haile Mariam Mengistu somewhere in Harare, as we speak. So that will -- will happen.

But is he going to fight a second round? I think if he was determined to have done this, he would have indicated it already. Although the presidential results have not been officially announced, they are known. Those results were known on Sunday, the day after voting. And they're delaying it, so as to buy time for him.

CLANCY: Do you really think he'll give up? I mean, this is a man with a fierce intellect and a stubbornness, even an arrogance, to match.

CORNISH: The big mistake you make with Robert Mugabe is to say that he is a crazy old guy, because he certainly isn't that. He is as sharp as a blade, remains as sharp as a blade. His health isn't great. He's never given up before, and he has seen electoral defeat before in a constitutional referendum in 2000.

CLANCY: And he got around it.

CORNISH: He was -- cynically got around it, brutally got around it, and that was this whole land reform policy that he came, you know, using it as a political axe. And that did enormous damage to his country. Brought it to its knees, in fact.

So would he be prepared to do all that sort of thing again? I don't think he has such an implement in his hands.

He is a very proud man, too. My gut feeling tells me that he is not going to face defeat in a second round. I don't think he's going to want to look to that. So I believe that we're looking at an exit strategy from the man.

CLANCY: Even with the mistakes that he has made, on issues such as land reform, it points the way for everyone else to look at the regime of Robert Mugabe and say, you've got to take a lesson away from this.

CORNISH: Land reform is the elephant in the room, isn't it? In every country -- in my country, in South Africa; in Namibia specifically -- these are countries where a small percentage of the population, and mostly white, own vast, vast tracts of the land, and it was taken during the colonial period. And so some sort of restitution, some sort of evening out has to occur.

Now, the ANC, to its credit, said right at the beginning in 1994, we had better tackle this problem, or it will tackle us. But to treat land as Robert Mugabe did, as a blunt instrument, is disastrous.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

CLANCY: Our thanks to J.J. Cornish for being with us and sharing his perspective.

As we take a break, INSIDE AFRICA will return, and we'll get the views of a Zimbabwean publisher. Trevor Ncube joins us in just a moment to discuss what's going on in Zimbabwe right now. Stay with CNN.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Making business news in Africa this week: South African energy and mining giant Sasol has announced the country's largest deal under the black economic empowerment plan. The company says it will sell 63 million of its shares, worth almost $3.2 billion, to black staff and investors. Shareholders are expected to approve the sale next month. Sasol racked up large profits during South Africa's apartheid era, making it a target for anti-apartheid campaigners.

And South Africa and Cuba are discussing stronger ties in science and technology. Fidel Castro Diaz-Balart, son of the former Cuban president, visited Pretoria. He lobbied South Africa's minister of science and technology for increased bilateral cooperation. Diaz-Balart is a nuclear scientist.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

CLANCY: Welcome back to INSIDE AFRICA. I'm Jim Clancy, and we're here at the Zimbabwean-South African border at Beit Bridge. This is where thousands of people come through every day, and over the past several days they all want to know one thing -- what's happening in my country.

Well, one of the people who is Zimbabwean and who does watch this situation very closely is Trevor Ncube. He is a publisher. He is with the Mail & Gardian news groups, and he joins us now from our Johannesburg bureau.

What can you tell us, Trevor, about what's happening tonight in Zimbabwe?

TREVOR NCUBE, ZIMBABWEAN NEWSPAPER PUBLISHER: Jim, I think what we're hearing right now is, you know, the reporting from what's happening (inaudible) yesterday, which is basically the sense is that if there is a runoff, the party is going to stand behind President Robert Mugabe. And there are discussions around the campaign strategy. And it is the campaign strategy which is worrying, and there are indications that that campaign strategy could be violent.

The other thing is the press conference that Morgan Tsvangirai has just held right now, which basically contains the sentiments around (inaudible) to a build-up to the runoff, which looks like it's promising to be violent.

And the anxiety, Jim, across the country. Zimbabweans want a result out, and I think many Zimbabweans would have wanted to be over and done with this thing. And nobody is looking forward to a runoff, because the expectation is that the runoff is going to be very violent. And this is because we have had an experience five years ago where we had a very violent election.

CLANCY: Trevor, let me ask you this question, and that is do you buy into the notion that the government, ZANU-PF is stalling for time, trying to negotiate an exit strategy for President Mugabe and some of the top generals to leave gracefully?

NCUBE: No, that's not, Jim, it doesn't look that way. I think they have been buying time until maybe yesterday. Right now, I think they are preparing themselves for a runoff, and they're getting all systems ready to go for that runoff. There are certain practical difficulties, and those are is the Zimbabwean electoral commission, which is doing the counting now, are they ready for a runoff in 21 days, or more time would be required? Do they have sufficient resources, the manpower on the ground to go ahead with this runoff? So those seem to be the key issues.

But the generals (ph) of Zimbabwe, I think, Jim, are concerned they're not going (inaudible) it's going to be a very expensive thing, particularly in a society that's already polarized. And they will really want to see their leadership taking a role that says let's find common ground between the contesting parties and move this nation forward.

CLANCY: Trevor Ncube, I want to thank you very much for coming in, talking with us here on INSIDE AFRICA and sharing your expertise and some of the best contacts in all of southern Africa for what is going on inside Zimbabwe.

INSIDE AFRICA will continue in a moment. We're going to have a final look at the man whose word may control what happens next in this crisis. Stay with INSIDE AFRICA.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CLANCY: Hello, everyone, once again, and welcome back to INSIDE AFRICA. I'm Jim Clancy. We're at Beit Bridge crossing, that commercial intersection between South Africa and Zimbabwe.

We have been looking at the political crisis there, and you know, it isn't so much what's going to happen next, but what one man will have to say about it. That one man is President Robert Mugabe. Here is a little insight into the man and perhaps what he's thinking right now.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

CLANCY: Ask scholars of African history and politics about Robert Mugabe, one piece of advice is always there -- don't underestimate him.

He was a militant revolutionary who warned colonialism in Africa wouldn't be undone without a fight, and so he fought. He went to prison. Robert Mugabe's rise and that of the nation of Zimbabwe came from the remnants, not the ruins of white-ruled Rhodesia. He was praised in the West for accommodating whites, building Africa's first real multi-racial democracy, providing the counterweight to apartheid in neighboring South Africa.

But as Nelson Mandela stepped from jail cell to world stage, a long shadow fell across Robert Mugabe. Mugabe seemed another of Africa' life-long leaders. Mandela would have none of it, saying one term was enough. Some contend Mugabe will never forgive Mandela for upstaging him.

MARTIN MEREDITH, AUTHOR: What marks Mandela's career as president more -- almost more than anything else is that after five years, he stepped down. There have been very few presidents in Africa who've ever given up willingly.

Mugabe is a classic example of a dictator who refuses to give up, even when he's pulling the country down into ruins about him.

CLANCY: When his rule seemed (inaudible), Mugabe resorted to the seizure of white-owned commercial farms to hold on to power. He won the vote, but sacrificed Zimbabwe's economy in the process. His swollen rhetoric on land reform became all too obvious when worn on the bruised and battered face of his political rival, Morgan Tsvangirai.

To Mugabe, a challenge to his rule was a plot hatched in the West.

ROBERT MUGABE, PRES., ZIMBABWE: Let the sinister governments be told here now that Zimbabwe will not allow a regime change authored by outsiders.

CLANCY: Today, Robert Mugabe has a decision to make. Does he stand and fight in the courts and at the polling stations in a runoff, or does he avoid the showdown at the polls and negotiate a graceful exit? If he knows the answer, he hasn't said so publicly. The old warrior is keeping us waiting and wondering.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

CLANCY: And that is where it stands right now. Millions of Zimbabweans are waiting. The world is watching. The only thing that they see is an economy that continues to decline. This month, the government put out -- printed a new Zimbabwean dollar note. The denomination -- 50 million. Real value -- two loaves of bread.

There is a lot to pay attention to in this crisis. You're going to see it all right here on INSIDE AFRICA and on CNN. But for now, I'm Jim Clancy, and I want to thank all of our guests that have been with us tonight. I want to thank our correspondents that are taking some real risks in Zimbabwe tonight. And I want to thank all of you, our viewers, for joining us on INSIDEA AFRICA. Goodbye for now.

END

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